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By Prof. Srikanth Kondapalli China is reeling under a massive resurgence of the coronavirus, affecting an estimated 400 million people and their livelihoods. People are seething with anger, and China’s growth rate, currency, stock markets are all down. Major cities are witnessing “hard lockdowns”, forcible mass testing, border controls, travel curbs, excessive quarantines, massive surveillance measures, hoarding of food stuffs, and millions of migrant workers are suffering, just as Indian migrant workers did during the lockdown here. Even as the pandemic situation has worsened in the 25-million people commercial capital, Shanghai, the epidemic threatens the 20-million people political capital, Beijing, with its Chaoyang district coming under lockdown. Having propagated the virtues of its ‘Zero Covid’ policy since the Wuhan lockdown, China’s leadership is at pains to explain to its people, and to the world, why infections have risen and why they are being forced to bear the overall disproportionate costs. As the pandemic spread across the globe, killing six million and infecting half-a-billion people, China reported only 120,000 infections and some 4,000-odd deaths – figures that are suspect due to the utter lack of transparency. Today, infections are said to have jumped to 900,000, as per the same nontransparent official figures, affecting nearly 50 cities. In June 2020, China released a white paper crediting President Xi Jinping’s “personal command” and “decisive” leadership in its “victory” over the spread of the virus. It also mentioned the “swift, effective and comprehensive” response for containing the virus across the country, although the then Wuhan Mayor had stated that over five million people had left the city before it was locked down on January 23, 2020. Subsequently, China carried out one of the most intensive holier-than-thou propaganda campaigns globally, critiquing democracies as inefficient and downright callous in addressing the pandemic. At the same time, China took pride in its ‘Zero Covid’ policies of total lockdowns, app-based intensive and intrusive surveillance methods, mass testing, constructing temporary hospital beds, vaccination, and oppressive quarantine procedures. The Communist Party organs even lampooned India for our death toll in April/May last year. With the current resurgence in the epidemic across the country, China insists on following its draconian Covid policies as it sees the political legitimacy of the Communist Party is increasingly being questioned. When the 1989 Tiananmen Square protests erupted, the Communist Party tied its legitimacy to ensuring economic growth rates which, of course, have declined from an estimated 14% in 1994 to 10% in 2010 to 2.2% in 2020. Managing the virus has now become the new goalpost for the Communist Party -- at the cost of people’s livelihoods and aspirations. Of course, the internal blame game is shifting as well. Politburo member and Vice Premier Sun Chunlan, spearheading the Covid-related campaign since late 2019, stated that Shanghai has no “solid foundation” in anti-epidemic work. With the 20th Communist Party congress due this November, political factional struggles are intensifying. While Xi Jinping may escape demands for political accountability over the spread of the pandemic across the country, Shanghai party leader Li Qiang and and others may be ‘disciplined’. The virus has spread despite 85% of the population being vaccinated – suggesting its ineffectiveness, although the Covid death rate may be low. Indeed, Brazil found Chinese-supplied vaccines to be only 54% effective. It was also critiqued that the vaccination drive in China has been uneven, with the elderly and those in remote areas left out. China also refuses to allow vaccines from abroad, given its negative propaganda about them earlier. A major casualty of the ‘Zero Covid’ policy is the economy. China’s growth rate fell to 2.2% in 2020 but regained to 8% in 2021. The IMF has predicted 4% for this year, well below China’s own target of over 5%. The Politburo announced a stimulus package on April 29. The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets have nose-dived. The China Securities Index 300 has fallen from over 5,211 points in 2020 to just over 4,016 points now. Supply chain disruptions continue with production at Tesla, Foxconn and others due to the ‘Zero Covid’ lockdowns. The real estate and technology sectors have been unable to rebound, thanks to the demands of Xi’s “common prosperity” campaign. Investors are pulling out. Thus, while many countries have successfully experimented with mass vaccination, herd immunity, and relative and non-lethal dispersal of the virus, China’s hard lockdowns are testing the patience of hundreds of millions of its citizens. #China #Covid Originally published: Deccan Herald, 30.04.2022 At: https://www.deccanherald.com/opinion/xi-s-zero-covid-policy-the-pitfalls-of-authoritarianism-1105402.html Posted here with the permission of the author. Prof. Srikanth Kondapalli is the Dean, School of International Studies, JNU.

By Prof. Gulshan Sachdeva A new, positive momentum created during UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson's and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s India visit will be felt during Narendra Modi’s Europe tour. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is visiting Germany, Denmark and France at a time when the Ukraine issue continues to occupy the attention of most European leaders. He will participate in the sixth India-Germany Inter-Governmental Consultations, in Berlin. Apart from bilateral meetings in Copenhagen, he will also participate in the second India-Nordic Summit where leaders of all five Nordic nations viz. Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Finland, and Iceland will join. In Paris, he will briefly meet newly re-elected President Emmanuel Macron. Since these European nations and India have different perceptions about the Ukraine war, Modi is likely to concentrate on a bilateral agenda. A new, positive momentum created during United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Johnson and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s India visit will also be felt during Modi’s Europe tour. There is a new optimism for both India-UK and India-European Union trade agreements. Without naming Russia, Modi may also talk about cessation of hostilities, diplomacy and dialogue, and killing of civilians in Ukraine. Apart from trade, investment, and technology, these nations are also important for India’s ambitious clean energy transition. Together with France, India launched the International Solar Alliance (ISA). New Delhi has established a green strategic partnership with Denmark. Germany is also trying to be a leader in green technologies. Under Energiewende, a national transition to a low carbon and renewable energy supply, Germany is not only transforming its energy sector, but the whole economy. During his meetings with business leaders in Germany and Denmark, Modi is likely to highlight India’s strong post-COVID-19 recovery, all-time high exports in goods and services as well as newly-signed FTAs with Australia and the United Arab Emirates. Germany, and France now constitute more than 40 percent of the EU economy. Both are central to the European integration project. Impact of recent elections in both the countries will be felt in Europe in the years to come. For a generation, Angela Merkel was an undisputed leader of Germany and Europe. She also managed German relations with Russia and China in a pragmatic manner. Under Macron, France is likely to take over some of the German leadership roles in Europe. Since India has strong strategic partnerships with both, this is unlikely to have any major impact on our bilateral ties with Europe. Although Chancellor Olaf Scholz and his Social Democratic Party (SPD) were in a coalition in the Merkel government, Greens and Free Democrats have come back to government after many years. So the visit will be useful to work out a new agenda with Germany for the next few years. The German economic model is largely based on exports, particularly in the manufacturing sector. Automobiles, chemicals, metals, electrical equipment, high-precision equipment, pharmaceuticals, retail trade, and healthcare are some of its leading sectors. Although the services sector contributes more than 70 percent of the economy, manufacturing exports are still key to its economic development. For years, Germany has been pushing for India-EU trade agreement and will be pleased with new optimism and the launch of EU-India Trade and Technology Council. With altogether 25 million-plus population, the five Nordic countries are perhaps the best governed countries in the world. These countries are at the top in human development index, happiness index, innovation index, freedom of speech, and transparency. It is not just that they are prosperous and innovative; they are more equal than many other western countries. They are also seriously working on green technologies to check Climate Change. In the last few years, India is looking at the region systematically. The attempt has been to link Nordic solutions to Indian flagship programmes. But many of these solutions have also emerged in a socio-political environment which is genuinely free, gender sensitive, egalitarian, and citizens have high trust in the government. Indians continue to receive the largest number of EU Blue Cards meant to attract high-skilled professionals to Europe. Germany has issued the largest number of Blue Cards within the EU, and more than one-fourth of these cards have been issued to Indians. New Delhi has already signed a migration and mobility agreement with France. A movement on a similar agreement with Germany is possible during the visit. Public statements on the Indo-Pacific are also likely. But the European approach to the Indo-Pacific is slightly different than India’s. They also want to deal with the China issue in a different manner. The centrality of the Indian narrative on the Indo-Pacific is to build forums and platforms to balance the impact of assertive China. In European understanding China is very much part of the Indo-Pacific. #India #Europe #EU #Germany #Denmark #France #Nordic Originally published: Money Control, May 2, 2022. At: https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/opinion/pm-in-europe-narendra-modi-may-focus-on-trade-technology-and-green-transition-8441081.html Posted here with the permission of the author. Gulshan Sachdeva is Professor at the Centre for European Studies and Coordinator, Jean Monnet Centre of Excellence, Jawaharlal Nehru University. Views are personal.

Dr. Sana Hashmi India has kept a low profile with Taiwan due to a protracted border issue and repeated standoffs with China The Russia-Ukraine conflict has posed uncertainties about the future of the liberal international order. One of the immediate consequences of the Ukraine crisis has been a flurry of speculations about China’s territorial (mis)adventures vis-a-vis its neighbours, notably in relation to Taiwan. The international community’s response to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, ranging from Russia’s increasing isolation to slapping a range of sanctions on it, might work as a warning to China regarding the consequences if it decides to take any militarily hostile action. As a revisionist power seeking to change the balance of power in Asia, China has clearly sided with Russia, tacitly supporting it at the logistical level and at the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) as well. China’s support to Russia, however, must not be mistaken as an ally’s behaviour. By endorsing Russia, China is obliging its own self-interest and military designs in the region. As a smaller democratic neighbour of a belligerent China, Taiwan finds itself in a similar situation with China as Ukraine with Russia, with striking geo-strategic and geo-economic similarities between Taiwan and Ukraine. Despite the fact that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is not imminent, Taiwan sees the Ukraine situation as a lesson in how to deal with China’s military adventurism. Other countries have also raised similar concerns. For instance, Japan has been expressing its worries over a possible Chinese incursion into the Taiwanese territory. This was explicitly mentioned in the Japanese White Paper published earlier this year. If recent US and Japan initiatives are any indication, both countries are speeding up efforts to bolster Taiwan’s resolve to deal with the Chinese security threat. This is a logical step taken by the US and Japan, and it opens the door for fellow democracies and like-minded countries to contribute in keeping the Indo-Pacific free of any geopolitical instability. This is primarily due to the fact that a conflict in the Indo-Pacific region would have long-term implications for countries including India and Japan. Regardless of how some foreign policy experts project a controlled West-only scenario, the consequences of the Russia-Ukraine conflict would be felt well beyond the Western world. Given Japan and India’s similar experiences with China, it makes sense for the countries in the Indo-Pacific region to assess such challenges their region is faced with, especially in the context of the security threat emanating from China and particularly in the context of cross-Strait relations. While Japan has made its position somewhat clear on the possibility of a cross-Strait military conflict, India is yet to formally pronounce its policy decision. While realpolitik and national security compulsions dictate New Delhi to not overtly criticise Russia for its war in Ukraine, the same factors may motivate New Delhi to shed its neutrality for a more forthright response in dealing with China’s deceptive and manipulative tactics which have always been a major source of concern for India. India’s experience with Wuhan and Mamallapuram summits are a case in point here. India has kept a low profile with Taiwan due to a protracted border issue and repeated standoffs with China. There has been a popular perception that any move to engage Taiwan will elicit a furious retaliation from China. After Galwan clashes, preceded by decades of deception by China and its attempts to forestall India’s growth, it would be timely for India to stop paying attention to China at the cost of engaging Taiwan. China poses a formidable threat to India, a challenge originating from their unresolved border dispute, and China’s repeated territorial incursions into the Indian territory. India and Taiwan share similar challenges. In the event of cross-Strait conflict, India should consider its role, where it should be aimed at discouraging China from adopting such an action. India must recognise that Taiwan’s security is as intertwined with the regional security order as it is with its own. As a fast-rising major stakeholder in the Indo-Pacific region, it is critically important for India to not refrain from engaging Taiwan because of China. Rather it should join Japan and the US in standing up for Taiwan as a fellow democracy facing similar challenges. Any solution to the China problem will necessitate a regional response and Taiwan cannot be excluded from such a response. #India #Taiwan #China Originally published: News18, April 27, 2022 At: https://www.news18.com/news/opinion/why-india-must-engage-taiwan-even-if-it-ruffles-a-few-chinese-feathers-5061271.html Posted here with the permission of the author. Dr. Sana Hashmi is Visiting Fellow, Taiwan-Asia Exchange Foundation. She was a scholar of Chinese Studies division, Centre for East Asian Studies, School of International Studies (2012-2020).