By Prof. Gulshan Sachdeva
If NATO expansion was considered to be a major cause of the Ukraine war, its enlargement in the Nordics could be another setback for Russia’s efforts to redraw European security architecture.
Both Finland and Sweden have officially announced that they will be applying for the membership of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO). Feeling vulnerable after the Russian military action in Ukraine, both countries would like to acquire security guarantees under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
Other three Nordic countries, viz. Denmark, Norway, and Iceland, are already founding members of NATO, a 30-nation military alliance founded in 1949. For more than 200 years, Sweden has been neutral, including during the two World Wars. In recent decades, it has been following the policy of military non-alignment.
Finland has a long 1,340 km border with Russia, which will be added to existing Russia-NATO borders with Estonia and Latvia. During the 1939-40 Soviet-Finnish winter war, Finland lost more than 10 percent of its territory. Later, under the 1948 agreement, the Soviet Union agreed not to bother Finland so long as it stayed out of western military alliance. This phenomena for long has been described as ‘Finlandization’, which was earlier rumoured to be mentioned as one of the models being considered even for Ukraine, before the war began.
If NATO’s expansion was considered to be a major cause of the Ukraine war, its enlargement in the Nordics could be another setback for Russia’s efforts to redraw European security architecture. However, Russia may view the expansion in the former Soviet space and in the Nordics differently.
Even being neutral, both Finland and Sweden were working closely with NATO. Both joined NATO’s Partnership for Peace programme in 1994, and participated in NATO operations in Afghanistan, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Iraq, Kosovo, and Libya. Since February, their co-ordination with NATO has increased significantly.
While speaking at the Collective Security Treaty Organization’s summit, Russian President Vladimir Putin asserted that NATO expansion to these countries “does not create any immediate threat to Russia, but the expansion of military infrastructure into this territory will certainly provoke our response”.
Finnish President Sauli Niinisto’s talk to Putin about his country’s decision to join NATO was “calm and cool” and did not contain any threats from Moscow. Niinisto said that Putin thinks “it’s a mistake. We are not threatening you”. However, earlier Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov warned that "Brussels, Washington and other NATO capitals should be under no illusion we will simply put up with the fact”. Russian company RAO Nordic says it will suspend electricity supply to Finland due to payment problems. Finland gets about 10 percent of its electricity from Russia. These countries also expect some cyber-attacks.
Since the membership bid has to be approved unanimously by all members, Turkey could create problems. Turkey’s President Tayyip Erdogan is against their membership as he feels “neither of the countries has a clear stance against terror organizations.” Other members are hopeful that they will be able to find a solution. Ankara wants end of these countries’ support to Kurdish groups, extradition of Kurdistan Worker Party (PKK) activists, and the removal of their arms export ban imposed on Turkey since 2019.
Interestingly, the decision to join NATO by Finland and Sweden is taken at a time when these countries are ruled by Social Democrat prime ministers. For decades, these parties opposed joining any military alliance. This shows how much the Ukraine war has affected Nordic and European politics in the last three months. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, who himself is a former Social Democrat Prime Minister of Norway, feels that their decision to join NATO is “historic”, and it “would increase our shared security, demonstrate that NATO’s door is open and that aggression does not pay.”
Apart from securing its interests in the post-Soviet space, one of the major Russian objectives to launch the Ukraine war has been to re-assert its influence in the European security architecture. Much will still depend on the final outcome of the war. However, Finland and Sweden’s historic shift towards NATO will complicate matters for Russia further.
NATO, which according to French President Emmanuel Macron was experiencing brain death just over two years ago, is seen again as the main pillar of European collective security. This is not the outcome Russia might be aiming for from the Ukraine war.
Originally published: Money Control, May 17, 2022.
At: https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/opinion/nato-expansion-to-finland-and-sweden-may-complicate-russian-designs-in-europe-8524131.html
Posted in SIS Blog with the authorization of the author.
Gulshan Sachdeva is Professor at the Centre for European Studies, SIS and Coordinator, Jean Monnet Centre of Excellence, Jawaharlal Nehru University.