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By Prof. Srikanth Kondapalli By introducing soft sectors like innovation, traditional medicine, Buddhism, and youth empowerment in the SCO activities, India, during the chairmanship of the group, apparently tried to give a new touch to the international security and defence organization The New Delhi summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) concluded on July 4, 2023 virtually after 140 programmes of conferences, workshops, and dialogues of member states on different subjects. India also invited observer states such as Afghanistan, Belarus and Mongolia and dialogue partners like Azerbaijan, Armenia, Cambodia, Nepal, Turkey, and Sri Lanka and held 14 ministerial meetings. Such activities are unprecedented in nature so far under the Indian leadership of the SCO. Also, unprecedented is the elevation of the soft sectors like innovation, Buddhism, traditional medicine, youth empowerment and digital inclusion, decarbonisation in the SCO activities and agenda formation. For a multilateral organisation like the SCO, seen widely as a hard-security focused group with counter-terrorism, energy security, drugs and small arms proliferation control and others dominating its agenda, the Indian touch is significant in transforming the SCO norms. A third unprecedented formulation is the inclusion of Central Asia as the “core” of the SCO. Both the New Delhi Declaration as well as Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s speech mention this. This is a significant outcome of the SCO meeting as the two traditional powers of the SCO like Russia and China are seen as influencing events to their advantage in the Eurasian region. Russia has been the traditional power holder in the region since the tsarist times. It has significant Russian diaspora, business interests, investments in strategic sectors, armaments industries and dependencies. However, the annexation of Donbas recently and Crimea before had resulted in concerns in the Eurasian region. When Almaty riots took place in early 2022, however, Kazakhstan invited Russian dominated Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) troops to stabilise the situation. China is the new upstart in Central Asia trying to implement its ancient stratagem of “fanke weizu” (reversing the role of host and the guest) – essentially to displace Russia – through aid that resulted in massive debt for Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, with Kazakhstan barely able to survive the panda-hug, investments in four energy pipelines and oil wells. China’s real estate grab in Almaty led to massive protests a few years ago. China has been enticing Central Asia through summit meetings since the Xian meeting in May this year, given Russian distraction in the Ukraine conflict. To steer away from the geo-political weight of Russia and China, the focus on Central Asia as the “core” is expected to enhance the region’s significance. However, Central Asia needs to be on guard as China divided the ASEAN region in order to grab South China Sea territories. A decade ago, only one country sided with China in the ASEAN grouping. Now, very few countries like Vietnam stand-up to China. Central Asia could witness such a fate if it does not balance bigger powers. A fourth significant development is that the SCO is on the path of membership expansion with Iran joining the New Delhi meeting, while Belarus will be admitted after formalities are completed. Several countries have expressed interest in joining, even though Mongolia, which has been a dialogue partner since 2001, has no interest in upgrading itself to become full-fledged member even after two decades. The SCO is said to consist of nearly one-third of the global economy at roughly $25 trillion. However, much of the gross domestic product of the SCO is traced to China, the 2nd largest economy at over $19 trillion, India the fifth largest economy at over $3 trillion and Russia at over $1.7 trillion. Intra-SCO trade is minimal by globalisation standards and predominantly composed of energy resources. Barriers to trade, investments and free market principles are yet to take roots in the region. The SCO is also said to be the largest populated multilateral organisation with over 40 percent of global population but even here India and China at over 1.4 billion each constitute the lion’s share. While China’s population is fast ageing, India's youth bulge offers opportunities for Russia and Central Asia. It is significant that youth exchanges are emphasised by India in the past year-long programmes. Another significant feature of the SCO is that it combines the largest energy producers in Russia, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and now Iran and largest consumers like China and India. The Ukraine conflict resulted in massive energy shortages benefiting Russian exports to China and India. An energy club was established in the SCO but skewed in favour of Beijing. China currently monopolises the Central Asian energy grid with various initiatives. India’s emphasis on Chabahar Port and International North-South Transport Corridor provides an opportunity for the Central Asian region to diversify energy resources. Finally, SCO crafted itself as a hard security organisation with Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure (RATS) headquarters located at Tashkent, Uzbekistan. RATS is to facilitate information sharing on terrorism and curb such activities. While SCO facilitated “peace mission” counter-terror exercises every year for the member states, it has not been able to make much progress with the epicentre of terrorism in Afghanistan and Pakistan, partly due to prevalence of double-standards. As a Cold War legacy, China’s position on this issue increasingly came under scrutiny. China aided the Mujahideen to counter the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan in the 1980s. With the Soviet Union disintegration, China continued to engage the Taliban recently with a deal to provide support in lieu of countering the Uighur insurgency in Xinjiang. Despite terror attacks on Chinese at Kabul, Kandahar, Karachi, Quetta and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, China continues to bank on Pakistan and Afghanistan that promote terrorism. This has unnerved India as China even began to support Pakistan in the United Nations Security Council mandated 1267 Committee and shielding terror outfits and individuals in Pakistan. This has diluted the resolve of the SCO on the subject. Another dent into the SCO is that when it was formed in 1996 as Shanghai Five, they insisted on confidence building measures (CBMs) in border areas to reduce tensions. However, with China overthrowing mutually agreed CBMs in Galwan in Ladakh-Aksai Chin borders in June 2020, a new round of tensions began between China and India that have not subsisted so far. This has exposed double standards in the SCO practice. #SCO #India #NewDelhiDeclaration #NewTouch #InternationalSecurity #PMModi Originally Posted : India Vs Disinformation, 10th July 2023 https://www.indiavsdisinformation.com/20230710/sco-summit-indian-touch-gives-a-new-meaning-and-outlook-to-organisation Posted on SIS Blog with the authorisation of the author. Prof. Srikanth Kondapalli is Dean of School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, India

By Prof. Santishree Dhulipudi Pandit An enduring legacy of the Marathas and Hindavi Swaraj The 350th year since the coronation of Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj is an occasion of great historical significance, offering an opportunity to reflect on the enduring legacy of the Marathas and Shivaji’s vision of Hindavi Swaraj, or self-rule. This milestone invites us to delve into the rich historical fabric of the Marathas, exploring their military prowess, governance and leadership, cultural preservation, and relevance to the Indian security today. These unsung heroes and gaps of Indian history need to be filled. It is time that both the Central and State Governments encouraged the research in higher education institutions. The legacy of Shivaji continues to inspire generations of individuals and governments. As such, to commemorate this special anniversary, we should look back at the transformative period of his rule that shaped the course of Indian history and continues to resonate today without attenuating the profound significance it holds. MAKING HARD CHOICES The rise of the Marathas under the leadership of Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj represented a seismic shift in Indian history. Their emergence as a formidable force challenged the hegemony of the Mughal Empire, ultimately leading to the establishment of Hindavi Swaraj. Hindavi Swaraj was a clarion call for self rule against the Mughal and other invaders. The valour, guerilla tactics, military strategy and construction of forts both inland and on the coast as part of their unique naval strategy in the Western Indian Ocean. The Marathas’ military campaigns showcased their exceptional strategic insight and innovative tactics, resulting in significant victories against more powerful adversaries. They were a bulwark against the Islamic invasions down South and saved the South from the plunder of temples, genocide and mass forced conversions. Yet, what exemplifies Shivaji most is his proclivity to make hard choices as a tactician on the battlefield, as a ruler, and as an individual. Instead of choosing a life of comfort serving the feudal lords like many of his contemporaries, Shivaji took the road less travelled as he sought to fight for freedom. One of his ingenuities was to adopt a warfare approach characterized by guerrilla tactics, swift mobility, and the effective use of terrain. He pioneered the concept of guerrilla warfare, using hit-and-run tactics, ambushes, and surprise attacks to weaken the powerful Mughal forces. Later, this was reflected in his successors’ campaigns that adapted to the ever-changing battlefield conditions to challenge the established order. Furthermore, the Marathas under Shivaji took to the seas even while it was easier to raise armies. Indeed, the Marathas turned out to be skilled naval commanders known for their naval expeditions and for establishing a strong maritime presence along the Konkan and Malabar coasts. Their navy played a pivotal role in securing coastal regions, protecting trade routes, and challenging the dominance of European powers in the Indian Ocean. The Maratha Empire’s territorial expansion and the subsequent weakening of the Mughal Empire laid the foundation for a significant power shift in India. Their rise opened up new avenues for regional powers, redefining the political landscape and heralding a new era of indigenous self-rule. LESSONS FOR EFFECTIVE GOVERNANCE Many discussions on Shivaji’s legacy deal with his military conquests, expeditions, and defiance of the Mughal rule. However, Shivaji’s vision of efficient governance, justice, and welfare was central to the Maratha legacy. He implemented a series of administrative reforms that laid the foundation for a well-rounded administration. The “Ashta Pradhan,” or the Council of Eight Ministers, exemplified Shivaji’s emphasis on diverse perspectives and expertise in governance. Each minister represented a specific facet of governance, such as finance, defence, foreign affairs, and intelligence. This system ensured a comprehensive and inclusive approach to decision-making, facilitating effective governance and fostering a sense of accountability. Shivaji’s administration prioritized its subjects’ welfare, implementing policies promoting social justice and economic prosperity. He emphasised the importance of local self-governance and empowered regional leaders to manage their territories autonomously. This approach decentralized power and effectively addressed local concerns and needs. Furthermore, Shivaji’s administration emphasised meritocracy, where individuals were appointed based on their skills and abilities rather than their social status or birth. Such ideas may appear standard in today’s day and age, but back then, such views were radical. A direct outcome of such merit-based appointments was that Shivaji’s administration represented one of the most inclusive administrations in medieval history. The Marathas’ administrative reforms also extended to revenue administration, where they introduced a systematic land revenue system that emphasised equitable taxation. This system played a crucial role in stimulating agricultural production and economic growth, benefiting the state and its subjects. The significance of such tax reforms is hard to grapple in today’s understanding. To put it in context, the Marathas under Shivaji implemented a revenue system rooted in equitable taxation principle, while the overwhelming population in mainland India at the time suffered from discriminatory and predatory taxes like Jiziya (tax collected from non-Muslims) and bhutfarosi (tax collected from idol worshippers). The Marathas’ focus on governance and welfare continues to hold valuable lessons about an inclusive and equitable societal structure that works for all, not for the few. PRESERVING CULTURE AND CELEBRATING DIVERSITY Beyond military and administrative achievements, the Marathas were passionate patrons and preservers of cultural heritage. Shivaji’s reign witnessed a flourishing of arts, literature, and architecture, creating a rich cultural and intellectual milieu. The Marathas’ patronage extended to poets, scholars, and artists who contributed significantly to Marathi literature, music, dance, and artistic traditions. Their support for regional languages and indigenous cultural expressions fostered a sense of pride and unity among diverse communities. This resulted in fostering Indian culture that stood distinct from outside rulers from Central Asia. The Marathas celebrated diversity, transcending divisions based on religion or caste. Shivaji promoted a pluralistic ethos that emphasised unity in the face of adversity. He recognised the importance of cultural identity and took significant steps to revive and promote Marathi culture, language, and traditions. Shivaji’s patronage of Sanskrit and Marathi literature and the establishment of educational institutions nurtured a vibrant intellectual and cultural atmosphere in his kingdom. Interestingly, Shivaji changed the court language from Persian (traditionally the courtly language in the country) to Marathi. This change was accompanied by an emphasis on Hindu political and courtly customs and traditions, as evidenced by his official seal, which was in Sanskrit. Shivaji’s love and admiration for Sanskrit were not limited to this. He commissioned a lexicon to replace Persian and Arabic words with their equivalents in Sanskrit. Shivaji sought to promote the use of Marathi and Sanskrit to foster a cultural and linguistic identity aligned with the Hindu heritage in his kingdom. A champion of social emancipation and the architect of the Indian Constitution, Bhimrao Ambedkar was also inspired by Shivaji. The landmark legislation CK Bole Act that opened public spaces for Scheduled Communities and the subsequent Mahad Satyagraha (1927) underscores the importance of Shivaji as a social unifier in India that employed slogans such as “Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj ki Jai!” Shivaji’s ideals and approach to cultural preservation serve as a model for embracing diversity and nurturing a collective identity that transcends societal divisions. LEGACY OF SWARAJYA One of the earliest nationalists of the freedom movement in India, Dadabhai Naoroji, is often attributed to bringing the word swaraj into the lexicon of freedom struggle. Later, Lokmanya Bal Gangadhara Tilak popularized the term, echoing Shivaji’s vision of self-rule. However, the term was first coined by Chhatrapati Shivaji in 1646 CE (to declare war against the Adil Shahi to win self-rule), making this one of the most invaluable contributors of Shivaji to the Indian Independence struggle. Furthermore, Shivaji and his stories profoundly impacted Indian freedom fighters, thinkers, writers, poets, and the larger Indian consciousness. For instance, Shivaji’s ideals caused Tilak to start the Shivaji Utsav, which helped invigorate India’s democratic processes and fostered a sense of national pride. The term Hindavi Swarajya (self-rule of Hindus) has helped shape contemporary India in ways that many Indians remain oblivious to. This concept, popularized by the visionary leader Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj, embodies a spiritual and inclusive vision beyond political independence. It represents the essence of a nation-state that cherishes its cultural heritage, upholds egalitarian values, and embraces diversity. Under the auspices of the concept, Shivaji aimed to break the barriers of social hierarchy, social stagnation, and social exclusion and lay down the foundation for a more equitable society. As such, the concept has been crucial in forming a national consciousness and even nation-building itself. Such understanding of Shivaji’s Hindavi Swarajya was best exemplified by his rule and governance, where ideas of social inclusion and mobility were so advanced that they may humble many so-called modern societies of today. The principles and values espoused by the Marathas and Hindavi Swaraj remain relevant in addressing modern-day challenges. In a rapidly changing world, there is a need for indigenous solutions; national pride and participatory governance are valuable in navigating contemporary challenges. As such, Shivaji’s commitment to self-determination, resistance against oppressive rule, and the promotion of inclusive and decentralized governance provide insights for individuals, societies, and governments grappling with questions of autonomy, identity, and development. The supreme sacrifice of Sambhaji Maharaj, who was brutally tortured and killed in a gruesome manner by Aurangazeb for refusing to convert under duress and standing up for Hindavi Swaraj need to be told in filling the gaps of history. One fashionably talks of Muslim genocide when there is none, but none speaks of the facts of Hindu genocide throughout the medieval period. Hindu genocide took place in the Kashmir valley as late as 1990. It is these strategic silences that need to be corrected and the facts be made public. One cannot normalise rape, loot, plunder and genocide. Let us remove the ghosts that have been constructed. In commemorating the 350th anniversary of Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj’s coronation, the most profound tribute lies in upholding and cherishing the enduring influence of the Marathas and Hindavi Swaraj on India and its people. Shivaji’s concept of swarajya reverberates as an indomitable force within India’s historical tapestry. Its multifaceted essence encompasses making hard choices to challenge the pressures of foreign invading powers, their fanatical tactics and genocide of local population, effective governance, preserving the cultural heritage, promoting diversity, and, most importantly, recognising the importance of self-rule. However, one must exercise caution to prevent these remarkable accomplishments and legacies from being confined to a mere annual commemoration or fleeting social media homage. Instead, they should be imbibed and internalized, for there exists no finer way to honour Shivaji’s legacy than to assimilate his virtuous acts and values through making it a part of our school and University curriculum as well as research. Every state needs to have a factual history and one where there is genuine pride. History cannot exist on shaky and fabricated foundations. The practice of defeated societies being excluded and marginalised, needs to be contested. Hence Marathas who challenged the Mughals were marginalised. History is weaponised with glaring biases such as Aurangazeb was generous and secular, whereas Marathas were communal for they fought for Hindavi Swaraj. This is based on interpretation rather than fact. We are sacrificing this at the altar of political calculations. One should not erase large chunks of history that erase the Bharatiya narratives. We need a plurality of voices and truth cannot be blamed. NEP 2020 is a historic document and framework where these glaring gaps in history need to be told loud and clear, where we celebrate our spirit of resilience and courage like that of the Marathas. #ChhatrapatiShivaji #Swaraj Originally Published : The SundayGuardian, 9th, July 2023 https://sundayguardianlive.com/opinion/350th-year-of-chhatrapati-shivajis-coronation Posted in SIS Blog with the authorization of the author. Prof Santishree Dhulipudi Pandit is Vice Chancellor, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi

By Prof. Srikanth Kondapalli The SCO represents 40 per cent of the world’s population and a third of its GDP, albeit due to China and India India seemed to be charting a new bottom-up, democratic approach in the just-concluded Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit meeting under its presidency. The challenges are formidable in the highly authoritarian regimes of the region, but the approach is subtle, long-term, and comprehensive. The July 4 meeting of the heads of the SCO came at the end of a year-long outreach to all member-states, observers and dialogue partners during which India organised a massive programme of 140 diverse activities across the country involving these countries, specifically their youth. As the SCO is expanding – Iran became a member, Belarus may be next – India has been paying much attention since it became a full member six years ago. The SCO represents 40 per cent of the world’s population and a third of its GDP, albeit due to China and India. One significant approach India adopted at this meeting was to strongly put forth its strengths and interests. In contrast to the top-down approach among many authoritarian governments, India advocated enhancing “contact and engagement among people” -- reflected in the programmes conducted across the country. New Delhi also offered to share India’s start-up experience. With the Stalinist planning model discredited and market economy spreading, India’s suggestions on start-ups, innovation and digital inclusion provide a transformative moment for the SCO states. India also advocated youth empowerment, traditional medical practices, and shared Buddhist heritage. There are also proposals for cooperation in emerging fuels, decarbonisation, and digital public infrastructure. These are sure to create interest in the Central Asian states whose aspirations India declared to be its “primary focus”. The New Delhi declaration announced Central Asia as the “the core of SCO”, perhaps replicating its “ASEAN centrality” approach in the Indo-Pacific in this Eurasian grouping. However, India needs to find its feet and resurrect the age-old ties it had with the region to overcome the hard power of the two dominant powers in the SCO, Russia and China. This is easier said than done for several reasons. Firstly, in a surprise move, India announced that the 23rd SCO summit would be held in the virtual format. That decision led to speculation mainly due to the actions of China and Pakistan. Pakistan Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari’s intemperate remarks and Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang’s (and Defence Minister Li Shangfu’s) denial of any border crisis with India created an impression of a Sino-Pak cabal in the SCO. China’s summit meeting with the Central Asian republics at Xian in May this year, the new trilateral of China-Russia-Iran and other signals from Beijing indicated strongly moves to balance against India. A virtual meeting avoided any embarrassment for New Delhi due to all this. Secondly, given India’s national security priority of countering cross-border terrorism, India found the Sino-Pak axis on the issue intriguing. India’s call to avoid double standards in addressing counter- terrorism efforts appear to be falling on deaf ears as China supports Pakistan in the UNSC 1267 committee proceedings as well as shielding Pakistan-based terror outfits. While India participated in Russia-led counter-terror exercises and found useful tactical and operational principles, given the Sino-Pak axis, counter-terrorism issues have been diluted in the SCO to India’s disadvantage. Also, regional security in the SCO has worsened with the Ukraine war, imposing costs on India and the Global South in terms of food, fuel and fertiliser shortages and price rise. The SCO had taken up an energy club effort, given the preponderance of energy producers and consumers. However, so far, much of the energy resources have been garnered by China as Pakistan has blocked initiatives to transport energy resources from Central Asia to India. Recently, India found an opportunity after Chabahar Port was built. India is also backing the International North-South Transport Corridor. Russia has also supplied substantial energy resources to India in the last two years. Thirdly, India remains the lone SCO member to not have endorsed, much less joined, China’s Belt and Road Initiative. India reiterated its position that “it is essential to uphold the basic principles of the SCO charter, particularly respecting the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the member-states”, pointing at the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor that passes through Pak-Occupied Kashmir. India also stated that “it is our shared responsibility to understand each other’s needs and sensitivities.” As the host of the SCO, India thus had to steer through difficult and turbulent terrain, balance competing claims, and still protect its interests and aspirations. A creative “soft” approach of reaching out to the people of the Eurasian region amongst the “hard” regimes appeared to be the best path, and New Delhi took it. #SCO #India #CentralAsia #Eurasia #Terrorism #Energy #EnergyTwitter #Climate #Covid Originally Published : The Deccan Herald, 9th July 2023 https://www.deccanherald.com/opinion/new-delhi-is-carving-out-a-lonely-furrow-in-sco-1235239.html Posted in SIS Blog with the authorization of the author. Prof. Srikanth Kondapalli is Dean of School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, India

By Dr. Sakti Prasad Srichandan The focus of this NATO framework is on containing China, and joining it has the potential to undermine India’s autonomy It was during a virtual press briefing in March 2023 on the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) focus on South Asia and the Indo-Pacific region that the United States Permanent Representative to NATO, Julianne Smith, was quoted as saying that “the NATO alliance is open to more engagement, should India seek that”. Reflecting the same sentiment, the U.S. House Select Committee on the Strategic Competition between the United States and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), in May 2023, recommended strengthening the ‘NATO-Plus’ framework by including India in the grouping. India’s External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar had rejected this idea by saying that “NATO template does not apply to India”. Yet on the eve of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to the U.S., in June, Senate India Caucus Co-Chair Mark Warner shared his plans to table a bill to bring India into the NATO Plus fold. NATO and NATO Plus NATO is a transatlantic military alliance of 31 countries, with the majority of members from Europe. After the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War, many thought that NATO would lose its relevance. On the contrary, NATO has not only survived but also expanded, with Finland joining as its 31st member (April 2023), and Sweden waiting in the wings. NATO appears to be getting the much-needed ground for survival, thanks to Russia’s tirade against it and the invasion of Ukraine. With NATO swelling its expanse, some analysts even see the onset of Cold War 2.0. “NATO plus” refers to a security arrangement of NATO and the five treaty allies of the U.S. — Australia, New Zealand, Japan, Israel, and South Korea as members — to enhance “global defence cooperation” and win the “strategic competition with the Chinese Communist Party”. Interestingly, the term ‘NATO Plus’ is not an officially recognised or established concept within NATO itself, but has been used in discussions and debates regarding the potential expansion of the alliance. The inclusion of these countries as members would require a complex process of negotiation and assessment of their compatibility with NATO’s principles, obligations, and defence commitments. While NATO’s earlier target was the Soviet Union and now Russia, the focus of NATO Plus is clearly on containing China. Therefore, considering its disputes with China, India remains a missing link in the framework. In light of increasing regional security challenges, India joining the NATO Plus framework could provide it with a security umbrella, with protection and deterrence against potential threats. India could also gain access to advanced military technologies, intelligence-sharing platforms, and inter-operability with other member-states. This could potentially strengthen India’s defence capabilities and modernisation efforts. But this bait needs to be assessed in the larger context of India’s strategic autonomy. First, getting into any NATO framework will annoy Russia and China. Apart from the robust strategic partnership, Russia has been useful to India in dealing with regional security challenges and, importantly, moderating the stance of China. Even though Russia is getting over-dependent on China, post the war in Ukraine, Moscow remains a valuable partner for India. Should it join, in one stroke, India’s solidified strategic partnership with Russia will crumble. Balancing these relationships and managing potential geopolitical consequences would be a significant challenge for India. Second, while aligning with a U.S.-led alliance system may be tempting due to the threats posed by China, it could ultimately prove counterproductive and detrimental. Having a military framework will limit India’s freedom of action and prevent it from pursuing an independent policy towards China. Moreover, at a time when India has its own bilateral issues with China and a strategy for the Indo-Pacific, hopping into the Taiwan strategy of the U.S. under NATO Plus will complicate India’s security, with the possibility of Chinese justification for further military build-up along the India-China border and frequent intrusion. Third, India has traditionally maintained a policy of strategic autonomy, allowing it to engage with various nations and blocs based on its own interests. Joining a NATO framework would require India to align its defence and security policies with the objectives and strategies of the alliance, thereby potentially undermining India’s autonomy. While the non-aligned policy will get a quick death, it could strain relationships with countries, especially neighbours and regional organisations that value India’s independent stance, and could also limit its flexibility in engaging with other regional powers. India’s priorities India’s priorities lie in addressing its own regional dynamics that includes a unique set of security challenges such as border disputes, terrorism, and regional conflicts. While NATO has certain competencies to deal with such issues, its larger geopolitical agenda starting from Eurasia to the Indo-Pacific may divert resources and attention away from these pressing issues and, therefore, will not be of much help to India. For the time being, India’s posturing through the Quad (India, Japan, Australia and the U.S.; the Asian NATO as per China) looks more promising than the NATO Plus bait, though China remains an elephant in the room during its summits. #NATOPlus #India #Autonomy Originally published : The Hindu, July 4th, 2023 https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/india-should-refuse-americas-nato-plus-bait/article67038238.ece Posted in SIS Blog with the authorization of the author Dr. Sakti Prasad Srichandan is Assistant Professor, Centre for European Studies, School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, India

By Prof. Gulshan Sachdeva If New Delhi is uncomfortable in aligning its activities with a China-dominated grouping, it must drastically raise its bilateral engagements in Central Asia The recently-concluded Shanghai Corporation Organisation (SCO) summit under the Indian presidency clearly shows that New Delhi is not quite sure what priority this organisation deserves. India would not like to be out of the SCO activities as it has serious security, economic, and energy interests in the Eurasian region. Now with Iran joining as a full member, the importance of the SCO for India has further increased. However, India is not very comfortable with Beijing’s influence over SCO activities and the organisation’s generally anti-United States attitude. The timing of the Indian chairmanship of the SCO was not very conducive. The policy-makers in Delhi have been too busy with the G20 presidency. To a large extent G20 activities overshadowed SCO events. Moreover, relations with two important members of the organisation, viz China and Pakistan, have been at an all-time low. While converting the two-day summit into a two-hour online affair, New Delhi lost a good opportunity to showcase and assert its independent foreign policy orientation. Even if India was able to organise more than 130 SCO meetings and events, the real show was supposed to be the summit. With a tense geopolitical environment, the whole world would have glued to the event in New Delhi in which the leading Eurasian powers including Russia, China, Iran, and India would have discussed their designs for the region. Since the core of the SCO is Central Asia, this would have also provided a good opportunity to welcome all Central Asian leaders together. Some of the bilateral meetings could also have generated a lot of interest. It was at the bilateral meeting between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Samarkand summit in 2022 where Modi made the famous ‘not an era of war’ statement. From the beginning, India was in a dilemma concerning its engagement with the SCO. So just being an observer in the SCO seemed fine. But the US’ decision to start withdrawing from Afghanistan in 2014 changed the equation. The SCO had already formed a Contact Group with Afghanistan. The Afghan President was being invited to attend SCO summits. Moreover, the US’ New Silk Road Strategy of linking Central and South Asia via Afghanistan was going nowhere. Within the context of increasing uncertainty in Afghanistan and a possibility that the SCO may play some significant role in the future of Afghanistan, India applied for its membership in 2014 and became a full member in 2017. Since then, however, various developments have created new dilemmas for India. Downturn in ties with both China and Pakistan, the US exit from Afghanistan, and the return of Taliban in Kabul have coincided with India’s serious involvement in various Indo-Pacific initiatives with the US. In the meanwhile, the West is trying to isolate Russia, and Iran continues to be under various sanctions. At the summit, China’s President Xi Jinping outlined his all major projects viz the Global Security Initiative, the Global Development Initiative, the Global Civilization Initiative, and the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). He asserted that China is willing to co-operate on all these projects with the SCO members. Both Russia and China want to deepen linkages between the Chinese-led BRI and the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union. To reduce their dependence on both Russia and China, Central Asians want India to play a bigger role in the region. This also fits well within their multi vector foreign policies. Despite intentions and rhetoric, however, New Delhi remains a marginal player in Central Asia. So, at least the SCO is good forum where Central and South Asians meet. However, at a time when India-US ties have become very close and its relations with China have deteriorated, India cannot be an enthusiastic player in a China dominated club. The Delhi declaration shows that India was the only country which did not support the BRI and did not sign the SCOs Economic Development Strategy 2030. Due to difficult India-Pakistan relations and an unstable Afghanistan, Iran has been a key factor in India’s connectivity designs in Eurasia. Being SCO members, both Russia and Iran will have no problem in linking their connectivity strategies with the SCO or the BRI. In fact, the International North-South Transport Corridor, in which India is a partner along with Russia and Iran, was listed as a BRI project at its last forum. So, to be relevant in Central Asia, either India must align its activities along with the SCO or drastically raise its bilateral engagements in the region. #SCO #CentralAsia #India #GreatPowerRivalry Originally Published : Deccan Herald, on 6th July, 2023 https://www.deccanherald.com/opinion/sco-china-india-central-asia-sco-summit-dilemma-1234417.html Posted in SIS Blog with the authorisation of the Author. Prof. Dr. Gulshan Sachdeva is Professor, Centre for European Studies and Coordinator, Jean Monnet Centre of Excellence, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi.

By Prof. Srikanth Kondapalli China has been watching Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to the United States this week. Read the full article here: https://www.thebillionpress.org/articles/2023/07/02/modi-us-and-why-china-rankled Originally Published : The Billion Press, 2nd July 2023 Posted in SIS Blog with the authorization of the author. Prof. Srikanth Kondapalli is Dean of School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, India

By Prof. Santishree Dhulipudi Pandit Academia must prioritize disseminating accurate and nuanced information, countering the spread of misinformation prevalent in woke culture. The entire visit of Prime Minister Narendra Modi to the United States is a spectacular success despite attempt by the wokes to puncture it. The Wall Street Journal reporter asking question to PM Modi never questioned the genocide of minorities in Pakistan but is worried about India. Their false cry and misinformation being spread by the woke media and a former President is in bad taste, ill-timed and very irresponsible. When the US system arrests a former President it is democracy, but when the Indian judiciary legally disqualifies a sitting MP it is interpreted as democracy and secularism is in danger. What double standards in the application of principles of democracy and secularism. This goes with the dictum that for the wokes the application of principles is based on their ideology are for someone and some purpose and the personal is political. To add to it they have invented the so called civil society NGOs that set their agenda, like Open Society. In India, a country renowned for its diverse landscape and rich tradition of open dialogue, the ascent of woke culture poses a deep concern, casting a shadow over the once-vibrant spaces of debate and discussion. Masked under the banner of promoting social justice and inclusivity, this trend fosters an atmosphere of hostility and exclusion towards differing viewpoints, ironic as it may seem. As woke culture reshapes the discourse in India, it compels us to reflect upon the future of intellectual freedom and the preservation of diverse thought. But what exactly is this pervasive phenomenon known as “woke culture” or “wokeism” that has permeated intellectual spheres locally and globally? The term “wokes” refers to individuals hyper-aware of social justice issues, advocating for change predominantly through online activism. However, it is essential to note that wokes do not necessarily represent the majority opinion or the sentiments of the masses. Instead, they often represent a more minor, vocal faction with a particular agenda. Their amplified voices, aligned with like-minded individuals and groups, create an illusion that their views, values, and moral compass hold absolute truth. Within the realm of woke culture, characterized by its creators and followers known as “wokes,” an exceptional emphasis is placed on morality and righteousness. This heightened focus on morality brings to mind the insights of philosopher Friedrich Nietzsche, who discussed the concept of herd mentality and its influence on moral judgments. Nietzsche astutely observed that the morality associated with herd mentality asserts, “I am morality itself, and nothing else is morality!” This observation resonates when considering the wokes’ tendency to invoke their own version of morality, vehemently asserting that their moral framework is the sole embodiment of what is right, dismissing alternative perspectives. Wokeism is marked by an unconditional and one-size-fits-all approach to thinking, often leading to selective uproar and oversimplification of complex ideas or situations. This mindset disregards the need for context and thorough examination, which can spread misinformation and contribute to societal polarization. Instead of genuinely addressing the intricacies of a specific issue, the emphasis often lies on “virtue signaling” or projecting an image of moral righteousness. This focus on appearances rather than the problem at hand hinders meaningful progress and constructive dialogue. In such a situation, it becomes essential to move beyond superficial gestures and prioritize nuanced understanding and thoughtful analysis to foster a more informed and inclusive society. In addition, woke culture significantly emphasizes group identities, elevating social identity above individual experiences and beliefs. This prioritization of group identities perpetuates the growth of tribalism and intolerance. A divisive mindset takes hold by categorizing individuals solely based on their social identity, eclipsing the acknowledgment of diverse personal experiences and viewpoints. This narrowing of focus creates an environment where intolerance towards differing perspectives becomes increasingly pervasive. As a result, the potential for meaningful dialogue and understanding diminishes, hindering the progress toward a more inclusive and harmonious society. A significant consequence of the rising woke culture is the stifling of free speech and receding space for intellectual space. Despite the claims of equality and diversity, wokeism shuns the opposing viewpoints as unacceptable or offensive. This is frequently done through a “cancelling” approach to opposing views and ideas. Individuals or their opinions that are not in line with the woke culture are deemed problematic and individuals find themselves ostracized or silenced, leading to a lack of open dialogue and exchange of ideas. Applying wokeism to the Indian context, for instance, using the Critical Race Theory in discussions on casteism, illustrates a poor understanding of Indian society. These concepts have been constructed within a colonial framework and weaponized to serve hegemonic narratives, often leading to more problems than solutions. The widespread application of wokeism in these complex contexts highlights the dangers of unconditional and contextually detached thinking. It exposes how individuals with bitter sentiments exploit resentment to perpetuate a harmful narrative. It is crucial to recognize that these developments undermine both individual and societal values in an endless pursuit of radical liberal ideas. The many notions that woke culture promotes indeed have merit in the sense that individuals, groups, and society have genuine grievances. Such concerns and grievances should never be negated or mellowed. However, the approach promoted by woke culture is counterproductive. Long-standing problems such as casteism and gender inequality require thoughtful and comprehensive solutions rather than quick-fix solutions. The misinformed smear campaigns against those who do not conform with woke culture’s thinking would neither solve any problems nor would it serve as a substitute for genuine discussions on critical issues, such as gender inequality. Relying on selective content and incomplete information only exacerbates grievances and widens existing societal divides. Ages before the concepts of free speech and public debate emerged in the West, India had a rich tradition of dialogue and discussion with institutions such as sabhas and samitis that provided platforms for debates and discussions encompassing not only political matters but also societal issues and individual differences. India’s reputation for diversity has garnered global recognition and admiration. However, the alarming rise of mob mentality observed on platforms like Twitter and other social media platforms demonstrates how this very diversity can become a vulnerability, leading to profound harm inflicted upon society and its institutions. Repairing these divisions often requires extensive time, spanning decades or even centuries. However, creating or exacerbating differences can occur swiftly, as exemplified by the current political climate to which woke culture invariably contributes. The encroachment of woke culture into academia and media has raised concerns over India’s diminishing space for diverse viewpoints and intellectual exchange. Operating under the guise of championing the marginalized and oppressed, woke culture promotes a predominantly left-leaning narrative that leaves little room for alternative perspectives. Universities, which should ideally foster robust ideological debates, often become battlegrounds for intense ideological contestation, with the left maintaining a significant presence. Through buzzwords like “cultural appropriation”, “microaggression”, and the demand for “safe spaces”, woke culture seeks to validate its moral high ground. However, in practice, it marginalizes dissenting voices and stifles meaningful engagement. While the specific subjects and themes may vary over time, the overarching outcome remains unchanged. This reality is apparent in the daily trending hashtags on platforms like Twitter, where rampant bullying and harassment undermine the very social and intellectual space the platform was intended to provide. Within academia and media, the prevalence of woke culture has given rise to echo chambers, where individuals primarily seek out and interact with viewpoints that align with their beliefs. This phenomenon has oversimplified complex issues and a noticeable absence of meaningful engagement with opposing perspectives. Academic freedom is a cornerstone of higher education, allowing scholars to pursue knowledge and ideas without fear of censorship or retaliation. The rise of wokeness (and cancel culture) undermines this freedom. Cancel culture fosters an environment of ideological conformity, something George Orwell pointed out in his novel, 1984, where specific viewpoints or perspectives are labelled unacceptable and subsequently silenced. The rise of woke culture has necessitated universities to assume a crucial role in restoring balance to public debate. As purveyors of knowledge and intellectual rigor, universities hold the responsibility to counteract the excesses of woke culture by upholding the principles of open dialogue, critical thinking, and evidence-based reasoning. Universities must actively engage in rigorous research, analysis, and scholarly inquiry, counterbalancing the dogmatic tendencies of woke culture. By promoting diverse perspectives and fostering an environment of respectful discourse, universities can encourage the exploration of multiple viewpoints and challenge the one-sided narratives often perpetuated by woke culture. Furthermore, academia must prioritize disseminating accurate and nuanced information, countering the spread of misinformation prevalent in woke culture. This should also follow providing the other side space to talk about their viewpoints and ideas. By encouraging evidence-based reasoning and critical analysis, universities should be the eponymous lighthouse in the storm of cancel culture and woke ideology to equip individuals with the tools to critically evaluate ideas, navigate complex issues, and discern fact from fiction. They are also responsible for cultivating intellectual humility, emphasizing that knowledge is an ongoing process and that one’s beliefs should remain open to scrutiny and revision. This approach counters the inherent rigidity and self-assuredness often associated with woke culture, encouraging individuals to self-reflect and consider alternative perspectives. In an era characterized by the unchecked growth of the culture of wokeness and the pervasive climate of political correctness, public space, particularly the intellectual sphere, has become heavily polluted. The prevailing narrative has devolved into a binary framework where opposing viewpoints are voiceless. In this critical juncture, universities and media must rise as beacons of light amidst polarization, misinformation and misguided opinions. They must reclaim their role as centres of critical debate, open dialogue, and substantive discussions on contentious issues sorely absent from the broader public discourse. #WokeCulture #HerdMentality #Democracy Originally Published : The SundayGuardian, 2nd, July 2023 https://sundayguardianlive.com/opinion/woke-chokehold-on-debate-discussion-is-growing Posted in SIS Blog with the authorization of the author. Prof Santishree Dhulipudi Pandit is Vice Chancellor, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi

By Prof. Gulshan Sachdeva If pushed aggressively, African Union’s G20 membership could become one of the significant achievements of the Indian presidency. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has written to G20 leaders that the African Union may be given a membership in the grouping at the summit in September. If this happens, this could be an important achievement for India’s G20 presidency. Now, 96 per cent of the African population is out of the G20. With just one addition, 54 more African countries could be represented in the G21. Currently, South Africa is the only G20 member from the continent. While speaking at the UN General Assembly in September, Macky Sall, the Senegalese President and Chairperson of the African Union, advocated a seat for the union within the G20 “so that Africa can, at last, be represented where decisions are taken that affect 1.4 billion Africans." Since then a new momentum has been built to push this initiative. If the European Union (EU) can represent 27 members in the G20, the African Union could also represent its 55 members. Together these countries constitute the eighth largest economy in the world. Moreover, crucial issues concerning Climate Change, debt restructuring, urbanisation, migration, pandemics, and security cannot be meaningfully discussed without bringing Africa to the table. Africa with its recent growth history, young population, and plenty of success stories in agriculture, telecommunications, consumer markets, banking, etc. is much more confident today than any time in the recent past. Many of the fastest growing economies of the world are in Africa. The resurgent Africa has expressed its ambition through Agenda 2063 and its 15 flagship projects. When there are trends towards protectionism in the world, Africa has taken a bold step in the opposite direction by launching the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). As almost every country in the continent is a member, this is the largest free trade area in the world by number of countries. Realising the importance of Africa for the global economy, the union is occasionally invited to G20 summits. Under the Chinese presidency in 2016, the G20 started supporting African industrialisation. To improve private investment in Africa, a compact with Africa was created under the German presidency in 2017. Similarly, the Italian presidency in 2021 hosted the Africa Advisory Group. Recently, a group of passive, consultative, or at best diminutive role”. This might change if an additional seat is provided to the union. The summary of deliberations of the Voices of Global South Summit held earlier this year did not mention anything about the African Union’s membership aspiration. The Chair’s summary of G20 Foreign Ministers’ meeting in March only indicated that ministers were “supportive of further deepening cooperation between the G20 and regional partners, including African partners”. However, at the press conference after the meeting, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov asserted that "we have agreed that the African Union will henceforth be a full member of the G20, just as the European Union has been participating in this work for several years." At the US-African leaders summit in December 2022, US President Joe Biden announced that he would support the African Union joining as a full member of the G20. Similarly, at the co-ordination meeting with the African Union in July 2022, European Council President Charles Michel mentioned that the EU would support African Union’s G20 membership. French President Emmanuel Macron insisted at the last G20 summit in Bali that the African Union should have a seat at the G20 table. In the last few months, Germany, Japan, Italy, and Canada have all indicated that they would support the African Union’s G20 membership bid. Apart from the Western powers, Brazil, China, Indonesia, and Russia have also supported the African Union’s G20 membership. Now India as a presidency country has also put its weight behind the African Union’s G20 membership. If New Delhi really wants to see the African Union as a G20 member by September, the next few weeks are going to be crucial. Even if many members have indicated their support, a high-level outreach to all G20 members is crucial. Modi’s visits to the United States and France can be used to build a broader consensus on the issue. Some of the countries might have shown support for political correctness, it needs to be firmed up. Others who have not made any commitment so far might have reservations. There could be arguments of the G20 losing its effectiveness with an expansion. Since India has now taken this initiative, it needs to put its full diplomatic weight behind the move. #G20 #AU #IndiaPresidency #VoicesGlobalSouth #AfricanUnion Originally Published : Deccan Herald, on 21st June, 2023 https://www.deccanherald.com/opinion/african-union-india-g20-european-union-indiag20-1229788.html Posted in SIS Blog with the authorisation of the Author. Prof. Dr. Gulshan Sachdeva is Professor, Centre for European Studies and Coordinator, Jean Monnet Centre of Excellence, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi.

By Prof. Srikanth Kondapalli Eighteen rounds of Corps Commanders’ meetings took place to resolve the stand-off in the Ladakh sector that China precipitated in April-May 2020 Three years ago, on the fateful night of June 15, 2020, China’s soldiers unleashed violence killing 20 Indian soldiers at Galwan in the western sector of the border with India. In the period since, what we have witnessed is China’s coercive military posture, diplomatic obfuscation, reneging on well-established protocols and border pacts, deliberate stalling of the border talks, endless discussions at the ground level, diversionary tactics to gain territorial advantage, and unleashing of unprecedented psychological warfare on India. As China reneged on its promise to abide by the 1993 peace and tranquillity agreement, the 1996 confidence-building measures, and the 2005 and 2013 agreements, India insisted that these agreements be observed in toto for restoration of bilateral ties. External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar stated on June 17, 2020, that unless and until peace and tranquillity prevailed at the border, bilateral relations would not improve. Over 30 dialogue processes between the two countries have been shut down, including the Special Representatives meetings on the territorial dispute, strategic dialogues between the two foreign ministries, annual defence dialogues, strategic and economic dialogue between Niti Aayog and China’s National Development Reform Council, dialogues between the two finance ministries, youth exchanges, media and think-tank dialogues and others. In fact, today, the world’s second and fifth largest economies do not even have each other’s journalists on their soil! Eighteen rounds of Corps Commanders’ meetings took place to resolve the stand-off in the Ladakh sector that China precipitated in April-May 2020. In February 2021, the two defence ministries issued a statement, with the Chinese side suggesting a “synchronised disengagement”, while the Indian side sought a “phased, coordinated and verifiable” disengagement and de-escalation process. While some progress was made in these 18 rounds, China refuses to vacate the Depsang Plains and Demchok areas, which Indian troops traditionally patrolled along the LAC. China wants its current occupation of these areas to be the “new normal”. China’s Western Theatre Command spokesman Long Shaohua audaciously called upon India to meet China “half way”. Meanwhile, reflecting Beijing’s diplomatic obfuscation, China’s new Foreign Minister Qin Gang and Defence Minister Li Shangfu have stated during their visits to attend G-20 and Shanghai Cooperation Organisation meetings in India that despite mobilising troops in thousands across the LAC, the border situation remains “normal”. Qin even stated that “China is willing to work with India to carry out bilateral consultations and exchanges, enhance dialogue and cooperation under multilateral frameworks, deepen coordination and cooperation on international and regional issues, and push China-India relations back to a healthy and stable development track”. All this while China refused to vacate recently occupied territories and mobilised troops and equipment. External Affairs Minister Jaishankar and Defence Minister Rajnath Singh have continued to state and re-state India’s position: implement agreements, vacate areas occupied since 2020, maintain peace and tranquillity on the borders, and we can talk about improving bilateral relations. Gen Li’s comments, however, reveal China’s game plan. Li said, “The two sides should take a long-term view, place the border issue in an appropriate position in bilateral relations, and promote the transition of the border situation to normalised management”. In other words, Li said that China is not going to remove its troops along the LAC, that India should compromise on China’s aggrandisement, consider the current positions the “new normal”, stop bringing up the territorial dispute and instead improve other aspects of the bilateral relationship. In the light of such attitude of Beijing, India needs to continue to stand up to China’s machinations. The strategic roads construction and deployment of advanced weapon systems, in addition to deployments of troops all across the LAC, has stood India in good stead. The Yagtse incident near Tawang last December proved that. While China is facing casualties in high-altitude regions of Aksai Chin and Tibet, battle-hardened Indian troops are now more than a match for China’s armed forces. India needs to bolster non-conventional methods of warfare, perhaps taking a leaf from the Ukrainians. For three long years, India has stood by its principles while standing up to China. The world has seen this and is convinced of China’s perfidy. Meanwhile, China is locked in disputes and conflicts with many of its neighbours and the world’s major powers. The strategic situation is therefore conducive for India. #Galwan #ThreeYears #China #India Originally published : Deccan Herald, June, 18, 2023. https://www.deccanherald.com/opinion/the-world-knows-what-china-did-in-galwan-and-after-1228738.html Posted in SIS Blog with the authorization of the author. Prof. Srikanth Kondapalli is Dean of School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University.

By Prof. Gulshan Sachdeva A decisive victory for either side is unlikely. The Ukrainian counteroffensive is likely to be followed by a renewed diplomatic engagement to end the stalemate. A few peace initiatives are taking shape. A resolution before the G20 summit in Delhi will be immensely helpful for India The war in Ukraine has entered another crucial phase. There are reports indicating that finally Ukraine has started its much talked about counteroffensive. The Russian President Vladimir Putin has acknowledged the offensive and claimed that “Ukrainian military has suffered far heavier casualties than the “classic” three-to-one ratio often expected during an offensive”. Now Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has also confirmed that counteroffensive actions are underway. Many western reports indicate that Ukrainian forces faced stiff resistance and suffered losses. Despite saying that the “counteroffensive attempts that have been made so far failed”, President Putin has not downplayed the challenge and acknowledged that “the offensive potential of Kiev's regime is still there”. No Decisive Gains Since June 4, Ukraine has conducted counteroffensive operations in at least four sectors (Bakhmut, Luhansk Oblast near Bilohorivka, Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia Oblast border and western Zaporizhzhia Oblast) with different outcomes. So far, Ukrainian frontal attacks against well prepared Russian defensive positions have not been very successful. Some reports show damaged Ukrainian military equipment provided by the West. But things may change as this is just the beginning of the counteroffensive. In the meanwhile, Russian missile and drone strikes on many Ukrainian cities continue. Moscow will also start deploying tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus in July 2023. The United States says that Iran is also helping Russia in building a drone factory near Moscow for the Ukraine war. French President Emmanuel Macron has urged Iran to stop supplying drones to Moscow as they create “serious security and humanitarian consequences”. Earlier, thousands of people were evacuated when the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant dam on Dnipro River in Kherson region was damaged. Both Russia and Ukraine have blamed each other for the damage. The dam provided cooling water to Europe’s largest nuclear power station at Zaporizhzhia. It is also one of the main sources of water to the Crimean Peninsula, which Moscow annexed in 2014. Facing flooding threats, the last operating reactor of the Zaporizhzhia plant has also been shut down. Five of the six reactors were already under cold shutdown. West’s Commitment To Ukraine After fifteen months, it is becoming clear that a decisive victory by either side is unlikely. Limited gains by either side will also not change the broader geopolitical scenario. However, apart from immediate military support to Ukraine, the Western endgame is not very clear. Through counteroffensive, no one expects that Ukraine will achieve all its objectives, which means liberating all areas occupied by Russia. But if Ukraine struggles in this counteroffensive, it will impact Western strategy towards Ukraine. Although the west would like a “strategic defeat” of Russia, many in Europe may not like to commit themselves for a multi-year war support. They are now hoping for some Ukrainian military gains to destabilise Putin’s war calculations. So, results of the Ukrainian counteroffensive propped up by western military equipment, training and intelligence support could lead to some clarity about their endgame. Recently at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, the US Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin mentioned that there is uncertainty in war but "our goal has been to provide them [Ukrainians] with the capability so that they have an opportunity to be successful". Despite all the military support to Ukraine, NATO membership is still out of question at the moment. The forthcoming NATO summit at Vilnius in July may discuss some “security arrangements” for Ukraine. Despite the membership rhetoric, however, most western leaders are likely to talk about arms deliveries and security “assurances” rather than security “guarantees”. Diplomacy Offers Hope Although it is too early to conclude anything, the counteroffensive may not radically change the existing stalemate. Still, results of the counteroffensive may allow some renewed diplomatic activities. The German chancellor Olaf Scholz has already indicated that he plans to talk to President Putin soon so that the conflict can be prevented from escalating. But he asserts that borders in Europe must not be moved by force and negotiations are possible only after withdrawals of Russian troops from Ukraine. To end the war, an African peace delegation consisting of diplomats from Uganda, South Africa, Congo, Senegal, Zambia and Egypt will be visiting Russia and Ukraine soon. Both China and India have supported this initiative. Despite not naming and condemning Russia, so far New Delhi has managed its ties with the US and European powers reasonably well. However, the Ukraine war has already overshadowed some key G20 meetings and may upset the main summit in September. Any diplomatic move towards resolving the Ukraine conflict in the coming weeks may help India in finding an acceptable language for the G20 summit communique. #UkraineRussia #NewDelhi #G20 Originally Published : Money Control, on 12th, June, 2023 https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/opinion/russia-ukraine-war-the-outcome-of-ukraines-counteroffensive-may-end-the-present-stalemate-10778971.html Posted in SIS Blog with the authorization of the author. Prof. Gulshan Sachdeva is Professor at the Centre for European Studies and Coordinator, Jean Monnet Centre of Excellence, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, India

By Prof. Swaran Singh The Two Sessions put all debates about Xi’s uncontested leadership to rest The closing ceremony of the Two Sessions of the National People’s Congress and Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference on Monday saw President Xi Jinping’s next-generation leaders finally enunciated and endorsed on lines that had became public after the 20th Party Congress last October. Also, the imprint of Xi’s uncontested leadership was writ large over these festivities that, among other eloquent eulogies, unanimously re-elected him for his third term as president of the People’s Republic of China and chairman of the Central Military Committee. But apart from Comrade Xi making history by staying in command in spite of China’s well-established 10-yearly power transition to the next generation leaders, the significance of the quinquennial Two Sessions (五年一次两会) remains rather critical and deep and must not be overlooked with this inordinate focus on Xi. During the last decade of Xi’s presidency, for example, the Two Sessions have become a major platform for showcasing of China’s electoral and consultative democracy at work. This has become especially noticeable as Chinese experts and officials have been trying hard to debunk Western insinuations calling Two Sessions mere rubber stamps that simply sit pretty to endorse all big decisions made during the preceding Party Congress. They point to the overwhelming attendance in the Two Sessions as well as in scores of small group meetings during these two sessions where deputies deliberate on various work reports and draft plans as also on various nominations to top positions in China’s leadership. This, according to them, constitutes China’s whole-process people’s democracy, the one, that it claims, has delivered better results. The Chinese also claim their legislators at various levels have superior education levels, representing a whole range of professional sectors including providing due representation to China’s minorities. The Communist Party claims it consults with other political parties, however minuscule be their presence in Chinese politics. Quinquennial Two Sessions Setting the tone for the deliberations at these quinquennial Two Sessions, Xi’s inaugural speech last week saw him reiterate his China Dream of national rejuvenation and call upon the delegates to deliberate on the bolstering China’s “national strategic capabilities” to “systematically upgrade the country’s overall strength to cope with strategic risks, safeguard strategic interest and realise strategic objectives.” Also, US government’s recent overreaction – in shooting down Chinese weather balloons and Secretary of State Antony Blinken canceling his China visit at the last minute – invited a direct and sharp criticism the United States’ “all-around containment, encirclement and suppression of China” from Xi. Qin Gang. China’s new foreign minister, elaborated this last week, invoking threats of a “wolf-warrior discourse trap,” and urged Chinese diplomats to stay ready to “dance with the wolves.” This saw the Two Sessions raising China’s military spending by 7.2%, taking it to US$230 billion for 2023. This was again anticipated in view of Xi’s enunciations of making the Chinese military reach “world-class standards” by 2030. But remember, this budget even now is only around one-fourth of the US defense budget for 2023. Plus, the US enjoys defense alliances with three dozen other advanced industrialized nations, including those of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and its Asian allies Japan and South Korea. China has also been making projections of becoming world’s largest economy by 2030 and calling US policies including its ban on semiconductors aimed at denying such a fait accompli. This saw outgoing premier Li Keqiang’s Government Work Report setting the target for China’s economic growth for this year at an ambitious 5%, which may not come easy for an $18 trillion economy and is something that his successor Li Qiang will have to deliver. The Two Sessions also endorsed Xi’s structural reforms geared for China’s next stage of development involving better regulation and distribution of wealth, closer connect of man and nature, and prosperity for all. His call for social and economic transformation saw deputies debate on building a well-off society in an all-around way, unemployment and corruption challenges and protecting China’s aging population and other disadvantaged groups negatively affected during the pandemic period. State Council reforms Starting from the very apex, the new State Council will be redesigned during the coming weeks. In some ways, it is customary at the beginning of quinquennial Two Sessions that also outline China’s focus for next five years. This usually entails setting up of new ministries, recalibrating their hierarchy, powers and responsibilities, regulatory oversight and recasting their social and financial systems. Some of these structural reforms have attracted great media attention. If the last such reset in 2018 was any example to go by, the Two Sessions then cut the total number of ministerial level entities by eight and vice-ministerial-level entities by seven while creating seven new ministers and a number of new agencies. One novel experiment this time was the decision to reduce the personnel of all central departments by 5% and relieved officials to be relocated elsewhere to “strengthen key areas and important tasks.” The State Council Institutional Reform Plan explicated how “scientific and technological innovation occupies a core position in the overall situation of China’s modernization drive.” Accordingly, the work of the Ministry of Science and Technology (MOST) is reorganized by transferring some of its responsibilities to other ministries and by creating the Central Science and Technology Committee (CSTC or 中央科技委员会). This is to allow the MOST to focus on the macro-management of strategy, planning, system reforms, resource planning, policy regulation and oversight of the CSTC and others related entities. Along with China’s increased focus on science and technology, digital transformation in specific has come to be another major goal of Xi’s modernization. The State Council Institutional Reform Plan accordingly underlined that the “digital resources and the digital economy play a fundamental role in economic and social development.” For this purpose, a new National Data Bureau (NDB) is created to coordinate the utilization of digital resources and promote digital economy. For creating a digital society, the NDB is to subsume the work of Communist Party’s Central Cybersecurity Commission as well as some of the data-related functions of the powerful National Development and Reform Commission. Likewise, in banking and financial regulation reforms as well, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission is replaced by the new National Financial Regulatory Administration, which will have supervisory responsibility of all financial sectors except for securities which are regulated by the newly created China Securities Regulatory Commission. This consolidation was much needed as China, and the rest of the world, is set to face the onset of global inflationary and recessionary forces. Innovation remains another major priority for President Xi and intellectual property has been at the center of China-US brinkmanship. Accordingly, the State Intellectual Property Office is now upgraded and will report directly to the State Council instead of its current reporting to State Administration for Market Regulation. Xi’s China Dream As was strongly reiterated by Premier Li Qiang’s detailed press conference after the closing ceremony of the Two Sessions, President Xi’s next-generation team shows strong commitment to move forward with these social and economic reforms toward realizing his China Dream of national rejuvenation. Among other visible changes, the Two Sessions showed China becoming receptive to paying more attention to public criticism. This saw the Two Sessions restructuring the National Public Complaints and Proposals Administration to strengthen and improve its handling of public petitions, and it will now rank equal other affiliated institutions of the State Council, putting it at par with the taxation office. In his first press conference as premier, Li Qiang patiently answered a whole range of tough questions from foreign and domestic media detailing China’s plans to address challenges of unemployment, aging population and even on China-US tensions, Taiwan and Covid mishandling. While the premier claimed China’s victory over the pandemic and reassured China remaining the most favored nation for foreign investments, most of China’s aging-related institutions, such as the Office of the National Working Committee on Ageng or China Association for the Elderly, that were transferred in 2018 to the National Health Commission have now reverted to the Ministry of Civil Affairs (MCA), which is now to develop a comprehensive inter-ministerial coordination, guidance and supervision of aging-related plans and initiatives. Finally, the 10-day fervor and festivities of China’s quinquennial Two Sessions have ended with the enunciation of Xi and his next-generation leaders. This has also put all debates about Xi’s uncontested leadership to rest and seen him and his new team reiterating lofty promises and how they plan to hit the road running. While the coming few weeks can be treated as their honeymoon period to find their feat in their new responsibilities, the new team will have to begin delivering on their promises. Both Xi’s unprecedented third term in office and China already being an advanced economy now place real tough challenges on the shoulders of Xi’s new team who are expected to sustain the magic that Deng Xiaoping’s reforms unleashed from the early 1990s. #Xi #TwoSessions #ThirdTerm #ChinaDream #SinoUsRivalry #NationalRejuvenation Originally Published : AsiaTimes on March,13, 2023 https://asiatimes.com/2023/03/xis-next-generation-leaders-commit-to-his-china-dream/ Posted in SIS Blog with the authorization of the author. Swaran Singh is visiting professor at the University of British Columbia, fellow of the Canadian Global Affairs Institute in Calgary, Alberta, and professor of diplomacy and disarmament at the School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, India

By Dr. Sakti Prasad Srichandan Russia’s actions have now united the European countries more than ever before, which will also test India’s global actor role The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has almost doubled its borders with Russia with the addition of Finland as its 31st member in April 2023. Sweden will become a member eventually, once the ratification process gets over, which will swell NATO’s territorial expanse like never before, and also make the Baltic Sea a NATO lake. The accession of Finland was the fastest on record. For long, Nordic countries Finland and Sweden had refused to take sides, maintaining military non-alignment and being focused more on their internal socio-economic development, thus making them models of modern welfare states. Their relations with Russia were moderate at best, if not deep enough. But the Russian invasion of Ukraine changed the way they had viewed their eastern neighbour and the predictability of its leader, Vladimir Putin. For sure, Mr. Putin’s actions have brought certain changes in the regional security dynamics of Europe. Russian actions, European unity First, engaging Russia has never been so easy for the European Union, mostly because of differences among member-states. Some European countries such as Germany and France had a soft corner for Russia, unlike some Baltic states such as Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania which have been in favour of treading a cautious path. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has not only brought back war to the European realm in the post-Second World War era, but is also a blow to the EU’s image as an actor, having failed to avert the war in its neighbourhood. An interesting outcome in this adverse situation is that Russia’s actions have now united European countries more than ever before. Second, Mr. Putin might not have expected that Finland and Sweden would give up their neutrality so soon. Their membership will also mean more expenditure, militarily, and restructuring apart from a stationing of NATO forces under the new command structure. As a response, Russia will also build its military presence in the adjoining northern areas and the Kaliningrad exclave. Bordering Finland, these northern areas (starting from St. Petersburg to Murmansk) come under the Russian Core region, which is strategically and economically important for Russia. Having NATO at its Finnish door will further fuel Russian anxiety. Spotlight on the Arctic Third, apart from these immediate border areas, another region where Nordic countries (or for that matter NATO) may face a standoff with Russia is the Arctic region, which has received little attention being too hostile an environment to merit any attention. But, due to climate change and prospects of harnessing untapped oil, gas and mineral resources, it is receiving wide attention, creating unexpected and complex challenges. Apart from the United States, Canada, and Russia, the Nordic countries such as Norway, Denmark, Iceland, Sweden and Finland are members of the Arctic Council, and have a direct stake in Arctic affairs. There have been localised confrontations between Russia and other actors here. NATO membership for the Nordic countries has brought a new geo-strategic dimension to the Arctic’s future. For Russia, cohabitation, rather than confrontation, with NATO was an option, but its military action has changed everything. By invading Ukraine, Mr. Putin wanted to stop NATO from expanding its base. On the contrary, it has triggered a NATO expansion instead, to a larger base in the Nordic, complicating the security landscape and creating more frontiers. There is more justification for NATO’s existence now. Many countries now see their secure future in NATO’s Article 5. Mr. Putin has in fact made NATO great again. Implications for India In recent years, India has had limited engagement with NATO, mostly as political dialogues. India has maintained a strategic silence on NATO’s recent expansion. But it needs to closely watch for scenarios that could emerge. First, Russia has few friends left in the current situation, but India, as one of them, is unlikely to help Moscow in maintaining the balance of power to counter NATO. China has maintained a strong stance against NATO’s existence and outreach towards the Indo-Pacific. Russia may count on China for support, bringing the two countries closer, strategically and militarily, which may not be in India’s interest. Second, in recent years, the Nordic region has caught the frequency of India’s strategic radar. Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Copenhagen to participate in the Second India-Nordic Summit in May 2022, and underlined India’s deep interest in cooperation. This region now coming under a NATO umbrella will complicate India’s strategic choices. Third, India has observer status in the Arctic Council and pursues an Arctic Policy to promote multi-level cooperation. Finland’s NATO membership, with Sweden joining soon, along with China’s claim as a ‘Near Arctic State’ and its partnership with Russia in this region, may lead to the Arctic’s militarisation, thereby affecting the interests of all actors including India. India’s global actor role will be tested in view of the new European security architecture led by NATO, and contested by Russia. #NATO #Arctic #India Originally published : The Hindu, May 11, 2023 https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/the-fallout-of-putin-helping-make-nato-great-again/article66835890.ece Posted in SIS Blog with the authorization of the author Dr. Sakti Prasad Srichandan is Assistant Professor, Centre for European Studies, School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi