Search

By Prof. Swaran Singh The geopolitics of expanding East-West polarisation and persistent North-South divide provided an acid test for India’s leadership and it has come out quite successful in converting those challenges into opportunities as well. The G20 Presidency has provided India with great opportunity to better engage with the world as also prepare its own citizens for its ever expanding role as global leader. For G20 as well, India has showcased its strong credentials to lead this most powerful body in global governance especially for the macro-management of global economic trends. The geopolitics of expanding East-West polarisation and persistent North-South divide provided an acid test for India’s leadership and it has come out quite successful in converting those challenges into opportunities as well. To begin with, G20 is a group of world’s largest economies and India has come to be recognised as world’s fastest growing economy amongst these large economies. Looking at top five economies in year 2023, the United States has been growing at 1.8% followed by China at 4%, Japan at 1.7%, Germany at 2.6% while India has marked its current growth rate at 7.2%. Plus India’s demographic dividend — of median age of 28.8 years — has witnessed continuous rise in its trade and foreign direct investments that also posit confidence in India emerging as major contributor to global growth trends. In wake of geopolitics increasingly circumventing consensus building in recent G20 presidencies, India’s policy of multi-alignment — that seeks to build partnerships in as many sectors with as many countries as possible while ensuring strategic autonomy — has witnessed India being one of the few that have been able to sustain position of neutrality in ongoing Ukraine crisis. India is among few nations that have been able to build strong partnership with most of the major powers, also with emerging economies and least developed nations. India remains continually engaged with both the United States and its friends as also with China-Russia and their friends. It is part of Quadrilateral Security Framework but also part of BRICS and SCO groupings. This makes India perhaps ideal candidate to ensure cohesion in increasingly polarising global governance. India’s has accordingly demonstrated its heft in showcasing its vision, versatility and vigour by raising several benchmarks to make 18th G20 presidency of 2023 unprecedented by achieving several firsts. At the most visible level never before G20 witnessed so many and such large gatherings as this year: India’s presidency saw 220 meetings being convened in 60 cities across every province and union territory of India. It brought over 100,000 delegates debating on multiple themes at multiple levels while experiencing India first hand. These also resulted in adding a whole range of new themes in their parleys and in producing most voluminous recommendations. This has provided India opportunity to further engage its own citizens and raise their awareness about India’s changing global role and stature; and responsibilities that will accrue from such transformation. This remains a prerequisite for any emerging power to build strong domestic constituencies for its global leadership. Foreign policy is nothing but an extension of domestic politics and voters must support their national leaders’ indulgences with issues that may have only an indirect impact of lives. As Indian leaders begin to invest greater attention and resources in addressing global challenges, G20 presidency provided an ideal opportunity to connect India’s foreign policy goals with aspirations of Indian citizens. But India’s contribution to G20 in 2023 remains much deeper. The most salient has been India’s focus to bring ‘Global South’ issues and perspectives to the centre-stage of these deliberations. Within weeks of taking of G20 presidency in December last year, January this year saw India convene the Voce of the Global South Summit that was attended by delegations from 125 nations. This has ignited greater interest of several other international forums in engaging nations of Global South thereby contributing to term ‘Global South’ shedding its pejorative pretences and be seen as nomenclature for evolving solidarity of nations of Asia, Africa and Latin America. India also stands reassured of Global South continuing to stay at the helm with nations of Global South — Indonesia (2022), India (2023), Brazil (2024), South Africa (2025) — continuously holding G20 presidency in coming years as well. G20 that had expanded from G7 grouping of most advanced industrialised nations has gradually changed its character. To begin with following the collapse of former Soviet Union, Russia was co-opted to make it G8 but that was soon replaced by G7 coopting some of the nations that later came to be known as BRICS as Observers. There were two milestones marking this transition. First, the East Asian financial crisis of 1997 had triggered finance ministers’ meetings of top twenty economies. Then these parleys were upgraded to its current G20 national leaders summit following the global economic crisis of 2008. Nevertheless, for long, the G7 had continued to define the essential character of G20 as market- and profit-driven, striving for material growth rates which now stand challenged as a sustainable model. The fundamental change triggered by co-option of the nations of Global South in G20 has been in accelerating a fundamental shift from growth to sustainable development. This has also sought to make G20 more inclusive in its vision and initiatives. Most important, G20 parleys have emerged out of largely close-door confabulations of celebrated economists, policy wonks, national leaders into what Indian prime minister calls a ‘People’s Festival’ seeking human-centric development. In this piecemeal changing of the style and substance of G20, India has made a seminal contribution by accelerating this transformation. This realisation has also gradually dawned on world leaders that urbanisation- and industrialisation-driven globalisation has accentuated the gulf between rich and poor within and between nations. What India’s foreign minister calls re-globalisation seeks to prioritise on sustainable development by making it inclusive of the nations of the Global South that have so far been on the receiving end of various emerging global challenges like climate crisis. Accordingly, the themes that 2023 has seen coming to the forefront include issues like millets, agriculture and food security, traditional medicine, biofuels, women-led development, climate finance, digital public infrastructure and so on. India has been able to generate consensus on large number these issues at various levels and many of these may also achieve consensus at the summit level. Finally, true to its civilisation ethos, India sees its presidency as part of an ongoing process in which summit 2023 is but one important event. Also, India’s presidency continues for eighty-one days beyond the 2023 summit. Plus given the Troika Leadership format of the G20 — where preceding, current, and next presidencies work in tandem at all levels — India will continuing to be at the steering wheel for next year as well. From this perspective, India remains committed to continue to work on issues on which consensus may be built during India’s presidency or later in subsequent years. The fact that India is all set to emerge from currently being world’s fifth largest to world’s third largest economy is also bound to add to its influence and aura on global governance enabling it to make a seminal contribution in making G20 inclusive, representative and effective in its endeavours. #G20 #G20Summit2023 #GlobalSouth #India Originally published: International Affairs Review, September 8, 2023. http://internationalaffairsreview.com/2023/09/08/g20-presidency-an-opportune-moment-for-india/ Posted in SIS Blog with the authorization of the author. Swaran Singh is visiting professor at the University of British Columbia, fellow of the Canadian Global Affairs Institute in Calgary, Alberta, and professor of diplomacy and disarmament at the School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, India

By Dr. Jajati K. Pattnaik This maiden expedition to the lunar south pole is going to empower India with critical information in space research and secure a firm place among the elite nations that compete to exercise their deep presence in space. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s address to the nation from Johannesburg in the immediate aftermath of Chandrayaan-3’s historic soft landing in the south pole of the Moon aptly alludes to the ‘Global South’. This is no doubt a remarkable feat achieved by a nation from the global south which has experienced a couple of centuries of British colonisation. To be the fourth country to have sent a space mission to the Moon after the US, Russia and China and to be the first country to have sent its spacecraft to the south of the Moon is an incredible accomplishment by India. Soft landing on the south pole of the Moon where the temperature may sink 230 degrees Celsius and mostly dark in the absence of sunlight is a difficult enterprise but this illustrates the depth of Indian engineering and space research. This develops a great deal of enthusiasm for nations in the Global South, and India becomes a nation that inspires a multitude of nations. The grit, resilience, and courage with which India has emerged from its colonial past form an inspiring story that shapes the imagination of success for many nations in the Global South. The reference made in PM Modi’s speech is a subtle call to the Global South to awaken from the colonially induced lethargy, and India takes the lead to shake off the invisible yokes. This enhances India’s prestige in the Global South and gives the former a leadership role. The attitudinal shift that India inspires naturally attracts allies to ensure India’s rise in the soft power sphere. The cutting-edge research that India is expected to conduct on the Moon is also going to help in several ways to the developing countries. In the age of Artificial Intelligence, Information Technology and Space Research, the countries that have established their strength in these areas are going to make a difference and determine the nature of the global order. The successful landing of Chandrayaan-3 on the Moon’s surface will help India acquire information about the nature and features of the Moon and its metal and mineral constitutions, the possibility of life and bacterial formations, vegetation, etc. The importance of India, in this connection, is going to enhance globally as a nation with a difference. India’s democratic political culture and its ethos of friendship and cooperation are going to be its soft power assets to make more collaboration with NASA and other international organisations to add more critical layers to space research. This achievement will encourage a deeper ISRO-NASA research engagement. With the deployment of critical technology, the research on the Moon may arrive at some breakthroughs that may enhance the scope of the probability of life on the Moon. India’s soft power through space research is going to take a very defined shape. This historic mission to the south of the Moon is just the end of the beginning. The real and challenging task lies ahead regarding its function on the moon’s surface to procure critical data for major research to take place. The Chandrayaan-1 gave India the breakthrough of exploring frozen water on the Moon. The Chandrayaan-3 is expected to examine the soil on the moon and measure its density and contents. The nature of metal and mineral compositions in the Lunar soil and rock is one of the significant objectives of the mission. The spacecraft is equipped with high-tech instruments which are capable of high-end experiments and analysis. The instruments such as RAMBHA and the Langmuir Probe sent in the module are going to play a key role in observing the plasma activities on the lunar surface. The research effort would be to understand the nature of the ion and electron particles. The thermal properties of the soil and other related constituents are going to be the key focus of this lunar expedition. NASA’s payload accommodated in the module is the LASER Retroreflector Array which is going to give measurement-related breakthroughs regarding the distance between the earth and the moon and the lunar orbital behaviours. This information will help in a crucial way to understand the behaviour of the earth. This will enable scientists to make precise predictions about different geological or seismic activities. In addition, the other two critical instruments namely the Alpha Particle X-ray Spectrometer (APXS) and Laser Induced Breakdown Spectroscope (LIBS) are designed to examine the properties of the lunar topsoil. This may lead to the exploration of the history and evolution of the moon. This along with a host of other reasons creates a compelling case for India’s soft power ascendancy on the global platform. This maiden expedition to the lunar south pole is going to empower India with critical information in space research and secure a firm place among the elite nations that compete to exercise their deep presence in space. India, in this direction, has put dedicated efforts into establishing its position as one of the impactful players in space technology and exploration. Its space-tech ecosystem and enthusiastic and sustained entrepreneurial interest in it are going to make India a hub of space research and technology. For this purpose, there are over 140 space-tech start-ups have organised their efforts to take India to a different level in space science. The success of the Chandrayaan-3 explains the top standard of Indian space technology. This will attract more investment in space engineering. The cost-effective model that India has pioneered through its Chandrayaan-3 constitutes a central motif for definitive investment. This is going to add more energy to the Indian economy. This will also generate a scope of employment for the Indian youth. The space economy may also emerge as a catalyst for diversifying India’s economic imagination. India will definitely gain strong soft power leverage across the globe and a substantive place in the space league. #Chandrayaan3 #ISRO #Space #GlobalSouth Originally Published : The FirstPost, 24th August, 2023 https://www.firstpost.com/opinion/how-chandrayaan-3-gives-india-an-inspirational-role-in-future-space-endeavours-of-global-south-13035982.html Posted on SIS Blog with the authorisation of the Author Dr Jajati K Pattnaik is an Associate Professor at Centre for West Asian Studies, School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, India

By Prof. Santishree Dhulipudi Pandit While the origin of democracy is usually credited to the British as the Magna Carta came into existence, the earlier inscription of Uthiramerur in Tamil Nadu had a vivid and detailed picture of democracy, said Jawaharlal Nehru University Vice-Chancellor Santishree Dhulipudi Pandit here on Tuesday. She delivered a lecture on ‘India and G20’ at Madurai Kamaraj University. She said the theme of the G20 Summit in India in September 2023, Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam meant ‘One Earth, One Family, One Future’. The theme also had its roots in Tamil Sangam period work Purananuru, she said. She said there were illustrious Nobel Laureates from Tamil Nadu. This motivated young students to become responsible citizens. Referring to the success of ISRO’s third lunar mission Chandrayaan-3, she said that she took pride in the contribution made by women towards the overall development of the country. Registrar M. Ramakrishnan, Syndicate Members S. Nagarathinam and S. Pushparaj were present. Head of the Department of Political Science D. Ramakrishnan welcomed the gathering and Head of the Department of Sociology P. Rajkumar proposed a vote of thanks. Originally Published : The Hindu, 29th August, 2023 https://www.thehindu.com/news/cities/Madurai/g20-summit-theme-has-roots-in-sangam-literature-says-jnu-vice-chancellor/article67249577.ece Posted in SIS Blog with the authorization of the author. Prof Santishree Dhulipudi Pandit is Vice Chancellor, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, India

By Prof. Gulshan Sachdeva The recent weaponisation of the global financial system by the West has alarmed the Global South, and re-invigorated BRICS The recently concluded 15th BRICS summit in South Africa has decided to invite six countries viz. Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates as full members. They will join Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa from January 1, 2024. This is only the first phase of the extension. South African President Cyril Ramaphosa declared that “other phases will follow”. Although the issue of BRICS expansion has been pending for some time, the quick inclusion of six countries is remarkable. At first glance, expansion may indicate a strong China-Russia imprint. However, five out of six new members have also established strategic partnerships with India; and New Delhi has a strong development partnership with Ethiopia. As per the summit declaration, a consensus “on the guiding principles, standards, criteria and procedures” for the expansion has been agreed. As this is an internal document, we may have to wait for the details. However, it is likely that a few more countries may join at the Kazan summit in Russia in 2024. There was always a certain interest in a few countries to join the grouping. The recent weaponisation of the global financial system by the West has alarmed most countries in the South, which are looking for alternatives. With more key non-Western countries joining the grouping, BRICS may slowly emerge as a potential alternative, at least in certain economic matters. The BRIC started as an economic grouping. Although evolving global geopolitics has clearly influenced BRICS’ functioning, there is still certain geo-economic logic in the latest expansion. The expansion is energy-centric and West Asian centric. In 2022, six out of 10 top oil producers in the world were from the expanded BRICS. They produced 30 per cent of the total global oil output. This included Saudi Arabia (12 per cent), Russia (11 per cent), China (5 per cent), Brazil, the UAE and Iran (4 per cent each). Similarly, China, India, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Brazil consumed about 30 per cent of the global oil produced. Many countries, including India, China, Russia, Iran, and the UAE, are already doing some of their energy transactions in local currencies. Currently, most of these transactions are bilateral. India has also used the UAE dirham and Chinese yuan to pay for Russian oil imports. Since policy makers from these countries will be meeting regularly in different BRICS meetings, they may work out a multilateral mechanism to deal with energy transactions in their own currencies. With more and more countries joining, BRICS would obviously be no longer a grouping with mainly economic underpinnings. It will become a strong non-Western geopolitical organisation with the aim of strengthening a multipolar world order. With more countries with different foreign policy orientations joining BRICS, the charge of an anti-US grouping may also weaken. China-Russia-Iran may have a strong anti-US stance. The same cannot be true for India, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. This feeling was clearly expressed by Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva when he asserted that "we do not want to be a counterpoint to the G7, G20 or the United States …we just want to organize ourselves." Being the largest economy and a major trading partner of all BRICS members, China is likely to have a bigger clout within the grouping. Therefore, many in the West may consider an expanding BRICS as one of the long term Chinese strategies being implemented for a Beijing-centric order. However, it may not be easy for any one country in the grouping, even for China, to influence so many big and diverse countries easily. So, the effectiveness of the grouping will continue to be a challenge. It was already being mocked by many as merely as a talking shop. However, eagerness of so many diverse countries to join the grouping indicates its relevance. The world order is changing. The ineffectiveness of existing multilateral organisations including the UNSC and WTO is evident. No one country including the United States or China has the capacity to singlehandedly lead the world. In the current geopolitical setting, the BRICS expansion will provide immediate comfort to China, Russia, and Iran. But in the medium run, the expanded BRICS will help strengthen multipolarity, despite its imperfections. It may also have the potential to provide some of the answers to current global governance flaws. #BRICS #Expansion #GlobalSouth #Multipolarity #GlobalGoverance Originally Published : Deccan Herald, on 28th August, 2023 https://www.deccanherald.com/opinion/despite-imperfections-brics-11-will-strengthen-multipolarity-2663185 Posted in SIS Blog with the authorisation of the Author. Prof. Dr. Gulshan Sachdeva is Professor, Centre for European Studies and Coordinator, Jean Monnet Centre of Excellence, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, India

By Prof. Srikanth Kondapalli How will the new additions to BRICS influence the economic weight and political influence of the grouping? Read more at: https://www.deccanherald.com/world/brics-plus-six-new-interests-traditional-agenda-2662324 Originally published : Deccan Herald, August 27th, 2023 Posted on SIS Blog with the authorisation of the Author Prof. Srikanth Kondapalli is Dean of School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, India

By Dr. Vaishali Krishna In this globalised world, sustainability is important for each one of us to think about our choices and actions so as to ensure a liveable future to both the present and future generations. Sustainability is based on environmental, economic and social development. It is a social objective about the ability of people to synchronise to exist on the globe over a longer period. In everyday use, sustainability often focuses on countering major environmental problems. These include climate change and loss of biodiversity, loss of ecosystem, land degradation, and air and water pollution. Today every issue is interrelated and common to the world whether it is related to Global South or Global North. The dependency has increased with the needs and requirements because all societies now progress through similar stages of development as both are facing similar situations whether developed nations or the developing ones as we all are moving towards a common path of development by various means such as investment, technology transfers, and closer integration into the world market. That is where international relations become important as it enables better organisation of human capital which is essential on matters of promoting trade and financial interdependence among nations and in promoting sustainability, security and stability. Strategic Human Resource management makes the most of human potential and opportunity in today’s unstable climate where Human resources are being upgraded from administrative players to strategic performers. Countries having good and stable relations with each other tend to share their inventions and innovations more smoothly and this has been the trend since ages. The technique of attracting, developing, rewarding, and retaining people for the benefit of both the employees as individuals and the organisation as a whole is known as strategic human resource management. Strategic management and partnership play a crucial role in capitalising human capital. Strategy for promoting sustainability in all activities include the use of resources and retention of resources to fulfil the needs of the present and the next generation. As sustainable development is a combination of environmental issues with socio-economic issues it is common for all developing countries. India, over the past two decades, has made remarkable progress in reducing extreme poverty since the World Bank is partnering with the government in this effort by helping strengthen policies, institutions, and investments to create a better future for the country and its people through green, resilient, and inclusive development. With the rise in geopolitical tensions India has kept itself balanced in overall development and tried to sustain during the global pandemic and also in this situation of turmoil in the global environment due to war in Russia and Ukraine, India is playing a major role to continue the supply chain and also bringing peace in order to stabilise the global security. India got the opportunity to head the G20 presidency and SCO where it is getting a chance to demonstrate its thought process to focus on seeking finance for sustainable development and enhancing socio-economic development through innovative, responsible and cost efficient digital public goods. The human resource management in India has been supporting the organisation to improve effectiveness, to manage corporate governance and ethical issues beyond economic performance, and to support realignment of the organisation's future direction and vision of new ways of operating towards sustainable development which will include air pollution reduction, job creation, improved health, access to energy, poverty reduction, protection of ecosystems, and more.India has been encouraging collective solutions to deal with major global challenges such as food and energy security. Indian leaders have emphasised that they believe in just one world and not in the first world or a third world with common challenges and common needs. India’s announcement that it aims to reach net zero emissions by 2070 and to meet 50 percent of its electricity requirements from renewable energy sources by 2030 is a significant intention for the global fight against climate change. India’s 1.3 billion human capital as a large developing economy and its ambitious adaptation to climate are not only transformational for India but for the entire globe.. One has to understand the potential of strategic management of India’s human capital. Having such a huge population the planning should be in the right direction with the right people in the right place with proper training to become an asset who can sustain the resources. It is all about identifying and focusing on vision, mission and objectives, environment browsing, casting strategies, assessment and command. The greater sense of responsibility is on the human capital to retain and design efficient strategies aligning with the policies, rules and regulations of the domestic and global authorities in order to sustain the environment to commence environment friendly attitude and consciousness among the employees or the end users. #SustainableDevelopment Originally Published : Republic World, 21 August, 2023 https://www.republicworld.com/opinions/blogs/towards-sustainable-development-strategic-management-of-human-capital-in-india-articleshow.html Posted in SIS Blog with the authorisation of the Author Dr. Vaishali Krishna is Assistant Professor at the Centre for Russian and Central Asian Studies, School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, India

By Prof. Santishree Dhulipudi Pandit NEP 2020 views AI as a powerful tool to address various challenges and achieve sustainable development goals (SDGs), including promoting women’s higher National Education Policy 2020 has envisioned a holistic, multidisciplinary and interdisciplinary lifelong education. Change and continuity have been a major thrust and the introduction of scientific temper with the implementation of latest technological tools for teaching and research is very important. One such tool is Artificial Intelligence, which brings in new opportunities as well as challenges. Artificial Intelligence (AI) is the talk of the town in nearly every discussion in almost every domain. While the transformative potential of AI has been recognised for some time, its widespread applications (like ChatGPT or BingChat) and evident benefits have now made it a powerful and disruptive force across various industries. Regardless of the industry, AI is becoming essential in shaping the future. Higher education is one sector that stands to gain the most from AI’s revolutionary potential. Integrating AI in higher education presents many opportunities to revolutionize the learning experience, advance research, and innovation, and address longstanding challenges in the educational landscape. However, this journey is not without its complexities, and it demands a thoughtful and responsible approach to unlock the full potential of AI while navigating the embedded challenges. The impact of AI in higher education is multifaceted and far-reaching. As an adaptive learning tool, AI has the potential to personalize education, accommodating the diverse needs and learning styles of students. In a classroom setting, where students struggle to obtain the individual attention of the teachers given the low student-teacher ratios, AI-driven systems can provide personalized instruction, identify strengths and weaknesses and offer targeted support for better learning outcomes. This customized approach empowers students to progress at their own pace, fostering a deeper understanding and engagement with the subject matter. Moreover, the significance of AI in promoting women’s higher education cannot be understated. Historically, cultural barriers, gender norms, and limited access to educational opportunities have impeded women’s access to higher education. However, AI-driven language learning tools can break down language barriers and empower women to pursue higher education, irrespective of their linguistic backgrounds. By offering personalized and adaptive learning experiences, AI can support women in acquiring the necessary skills and knowledge to advance their careers and achieve their academic aspirations. This would prove helpful for regions with limited access to educational infrastructure. AI-driven tools can bridge the digital divide, offering equitable access to quality education. The power of AI in research and innovation within higher education is equally profound. Gathering and analysing vast amounts of data enable researchers to make evidence-based decisions, facilitating breakthroughs across various disciplines. AI-driven tools can analyse complex datasets, identify patterns, and offer insights humans may not easily discern. This data-driven approach fosters a deeper understanding of regional challenges and opportunities, promoting informed decision-making and societal advancement. Besides the educational benefits, AI-driven tools have much to offer regarding administration and bureaucracy associated with higher education. Administrative tasks, such as attendance tracking and record-keeping, can be automated using biometric authentication and AI powered systems. This reduces administrative burden and promotes transparency and accountability within the educational ecosystem. Institutions can focus more on core educational goals and provide quality learning experiences without exhausting resources and energy in repetitive tasks. Moreover, the documentation required for admissions or transfers could be significantly simplified, alleviating the current burden of complexity associated with these procedures. Yet, the integration of artificial intelligence into higher education presents several challenges. Ethical concerns and data privacy issues arise from collecting and processing vast amounts of student data. Establishing robust data protection and privacy policies to safeguard sensitive information and ensure transparent communication with students regarding data usage is imperative. Ethical guidelines must be in place to prevent the misuse of AI-derived insights and data for commercial or discriminatory purposes. Another challenge lies in AI’s implementation, particularly in regions with limited access to educational infrastructure. Bridging the digital divide demands investment in resources, reliable internet connectivity, and access to digital devices to ensure equitable access to AI-driven educational tools. Comprehensive teacher training programs are essential to equip educators with the necessary skills to maximize AI’s potential effectively. Before bringing AI to students, the faculties and the pedagogy need to be updated with the transformative nature of AI. More so, AI education in universities should accompany learning the ethics of using and employing the technology. AI educators must adhere to ethical standards and data privacy protocols to promote the fair use of technology in the education sector. In the face of such veritable challenges, a balanced approach is essential in integrating AI into education. While AI can enhance the learning experience, it should complement rather than replace the human element of teaching and mentorship. Effective education entails a symbiotic relationship between AI-driven tools and human intelligence, where educators play a central role in guiding and supporting students’ academic journeys. A critical mention here must be made about the National Education Policy (NEP) 2020, which recognizes the unfolding significance of AI and its role in shaping the future of education. The policy views AI as a powerful tool to address various challenges and achieve sustainable development goals (SDGs), including promoting women’s higher education. The proactive pursuit of the objectives outlined in the NEP 2020, combined with broader governmental efforts to promote scientific innovation and learning, would yield tangible outcomes that would benefit the country and society in the long term. The effective implementation of AI in higher education demands collaborative efforts among policymakers, educators, and AI developers. The government must prioritize investment in AI research and infrastructure to foster innovation and ensure equitable access to AI-driven educational tools. Unlike other fields, AI in education would ensure improvement in AI itself as more young minds would engage the technology, making it more efficient, helpful, and safer. To implement AI better, educational institutions must embrace a culture of adaptability and provide comprehensive training to faculty members to maximize AI’s potential effectively. Integrating AI in higher education offers a transformative opportunity to revolutionize learning, research, and administrative processes. By leveraging AI responsibly, higher education institutions can unlock their full potential and create a more inclusive and innovative educational environment. The journey towards AI-driven higher education requires collaborative efforts among policymakers, educators, and AI developers to address challenges and seize opportunities. By embracing AI thoughtfully, India can lead the way in shaping a future where AI is a powerful catalyst for advancing higher education, fostering a generation of skilled and empowered individuals ready to take on the challenges of a rapidly evolving world. Essentially, India cannot afford to be complacent as the AI revolution unfolds in education. India has to seize this opportune moment with AI, as failing to do so would leave future generations constantly playing catch-up. #NEP2020 #AI #Education Originally Published: Sunday Guardian, on 20th August, 2023 https://sundayguardianlive.com/opinion/transform-higher-education-by-seizing-the-ai-moment Prof. Santishree Dhulipudi Pandit is the Vice Chancellor of Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, India

By Dr. Amitabh Singh and Vivek Pandey AI has emerged as a game-changing technology in modern military operations. As it continues to evolve, the line between science fiction and reality in warfare becomes increasingly blurred The integration of artificial intelligence (AI) into military operations has transformed the landscape of modern warfare. With advancements in machine learning, autonomous devices, and data analysis, AI has become a critical component of 21st-century military strategies. Experts in military strategy are now looking at the role of AI in the military, from cyberattacks to data crunching and autonomous machines, and are now examining the potential implications and future prospects of this technology. The integration of artificial intelligence into cyber warfare has revolutionised strategic intelligence gathering and provided militaries with unprecedented capabilities. The development of highly sophisticated cyber weapons, empowered by AI, has enabled military agencies to infiltrate and sabotage critical infrastructure with precision and effectiveness. The Stuxnet virus, infamous for its targeted attack on Iranian centrifuges, exemplifies the potential of AI in cyber warfare. Since then, AI-driven viruses have evolved to not only disrupt but also gather valuable strategic information, offering insights that were previously inaccessible. The collection and analysis of vast amounts of data have been facilitated by AI-powered algorithms, transforming the landscape of intelligence gathering. Satellite surveillance, battlefield sensors, and cyber operations generate massive datasets that are processed using learning algorithms. These algorithms possess the ability to decipher complex patterns, uncover hidden relationships, and extract actionable intelligence from the data. By leveraging AI, military agencies can gain critical insights into adversary capabilities, intentions, and vulnerabilities, facilitating informed decision-making and proactive responses. Beyond the Stuxnet virus, numerous other examples highlight the impact of AI in cyber warfare and strategic intelligence. For instance, AI algorithms have been utilised to detect and analyse patterns of malicious activities in network traffic, enabling the identification and mitigation of cyber threats. Machine learning algorithms can also be employed to monitor social media platforms and other online channels, extracting valuable information about potential adversaries or monitoring public sentiment during conflicts. Furthermore, AI-powered systems can augment traditional surveillance methods, enhancing the collection and analysis of intelligence in real time. Sophisticated satellite systems equipped with AI algorithms can process vast amounts of imagery data, identify patterns, detect anomalies, and track movements on the ground. This enables military agencies to monitor regions of interest, track potential threats, and gain valuable situational awareness. As AI continues to advance, it holds the potential to transform strategic intelligence gathering even further. For instance, natural language processing algorithms combined with AI can analyse vast amounts of textual information, such as intercepted communications or open-source intelligence, providing insights into enemy plans, intentions, and networks. Similarly, AI algorithms can be employed to analyse and detect patterns in financial transactions, enabling the identification of illicit funding sources supporting hostile activities. The utilisation of AI algorithms for data crunching and decision-making has transformed military operations, allowing analysts to effectively navigate through vast amounts of information. These algorithms, akin to those employed by industry giants like Amazon, possess the capacity to process and extract patterns from extensive datasets. Remarkably, AI algorithms have exhibited decision-making prowess that surpasses human capabilities in specific domains. The victory of the AlphaGo program against a human grandmaster in the intricate ‘Game of Go’ serves as a prime example, showcasing AI’s capacity to make unexpectedly bold moves that catch opponents off guard. In the military realm, AI-driven mass surveillance and counterinsurgency operations have yielded remarkable results, empowering real-time analysis of imagery captured by CCTV cameras and drones. This capability enables military agencies to efficiently monitor and track multiple potential targets, a task that would have been inconceivable without the aid of AI. The integration of AI algorithms with surveillance systems allows for the swift processing and interpretation of visual data, facilitating enhanced targeting and rapid response capabilities. The ability to analyse vast amounts of imagery data enables military analysts to detect potential threats, identify suspicious activities, and gain valuable situational awareness. Moreover, AI algorithms have demonstrated their utility in enhancing decision-making processes within military operations. By processing and analysing extensive datasets, these algorithms can identify trends, correlations, and insights that human analysts might overlook. For instance, AI algorithms can be employed to analyse historical military data, identify patterns of enemy tactics, and predict their future moves. This empowers military decision-makers with valuable information to formulate effective strategies and responses. The impact of AI algorithms on decision-making extends beyond the battlefield. Military logistics and resource allocation can also benefit from the data-driven capabilities of AI. By analysing supply chain data, AI algorithms can optimise resource distribution, anticipate maintenance needs, and streamline operations. This ultimately enhances the efficiency and effectiveness of military logistics, ensuring that resources are allocated in the most optimal manner. Autonomous machines have emerged as a significant area of focus within military AI, offering a glimpse into the future of warfare. As the capabilities of AI continue to advance, the development of autonomous systems has gained momentum, aiming to minimise the reliance on human intervention. While human decision-making is currently preferred, the inherent vulnerability of communication links during wartime has spurred the exploration of autonomous technologies. Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) like the Global Hawk exemplify the potential of autonomous machines in military operations. These UAVs can execute missions independently, eliminating the need for constant reliance on data links and enhancing their survivability in hostile environments. Governments across the globe recognise the strategic importance of autonomous systems and are actively investing in their development. France’s Dassault nEUROn and Russia’s Sukhoi S-70 serve as prime examples of cutting-edge autonomous platforms. These advanced systems have the capacity to execute complex missions with minimal human oversight, marking a paradigm shift in military capabilities. Collaborative efforts between countries, such as Australia’s collaboration with Boeing to create the “loyal wingman” demonstrate the potential of AI as a force multiplier alongside human pilots. The “loyal wingman” concept envisions an unmanned aircraft operating in tandem with a manned aircraft, providing support, defence, and completing missions either independently or in coordination with the human pilot. This collaborative approach not only enhances operational efficiency but also acts as an AI bodyguard, safeguarding the human pilot while sacrificing itself if necessary. These examples underscore the growing trend towards autonomous machines in military applications. By combining the power of AI with advanced technologies, autonomous systems have the potential to revolutionise warfare. Their ability to operate independently and adapt to dynamic situations offers advantages such as increased agility, precision, and endurance on the battlefield. However, the deployment of autonomous combatants, commonly referred to as “killer robots,” poses ethical concerns and necessitates the establishment of robust guidelines to ensure responsible and accountable use. ETHICAL CONCERNS AND FUTURE IMPLICATIONS The deployment of autonomous combatants, often referred to as “killer robots,” raises ethical concerns and necessitates the development of codes of ethics for their use. While such combatants are yet to be realised, the ongoing development of AI in military applications warrants careful consideration of the potential consequences. As each facet of AI in the military advances, the potential of other systems also increases, creating a paradigm shift in warfare. Although we may not be facing Terminator-like scenarios depicted in science fiction, the convergence of AI and military capabilities could transform future conflicts. CONCLUSION Artificial intelligence has emerged as a game-changing technology in modern military operations. From cyber warfare to data analysis and the development of autonomous systems, AI enhances the accuracy, precision, and efficiency of military endeavours. However, ethical concerns surrounding autonomous combatants highlight the need for responsible and carefully regulated implementation. As AI continues to evolve, the line between science fiction and reality in warfare becomes increasingly blurred. It is crucial for policymakers, military strategists, and society as a whole to navigate this new era of AI in the military with nuanced understanding and thoughtful consideration. #AI #HybridWarfare #Stuxnet Originally Published : News18, on July 10, 2023 https://www.news18.com/opinion/opinion-role-of-artificial-intelligence-in-modern-warfare-a-paradigm-shift-in-warfare-8299213.html Posted in SIS Blog with the authorisation. Dr. Amitabh Singh is an Associate Professor at the School of International Studies, JNU and Vivek Pandey is a PhD Scholar at the School of International Studies, JNU.

By Srijan Sharma As India celebrates the 24th Vijay Diwas of winning the Kargil War in 1999, the nuclear question between two arch rivals refreshed once again how an atomic scenario could have rolled out during war when both nations reportedly weighed the nuclear option. In 1999 Pakistan moved ballistic missiles towards the border. The White House officials and security experts in 2000 claimed that India, too, was preparing five nuclear-tipped ballistic missiles. The nuclear escalations between the two nations had never come to such close brink. Still, ever since 1999-2001, Pakistan's show-offing and warmongering about nuclear warfare have always been in the headlines. In 2019, the nuclear question again resurfaced after India carried out Balakot Air strikes. A few days back, Pakistan's strategic planners hinted towards a shift in Pakistan's nuclear doctrine, which seemed to be quite radical to some extent. Pakistan's Nuclear Expert and Advisor to National Command Authority- Lt General(R) Khalid Kidwai, on the 25th Anniversary of Pakistan's Nuclear Tests, sent ripples across the strategic and security community from West to Asia when he revisited Pakistan's Nuclear strategy. Kidwai, in his speech, touched on two important things- first, he referred to" Full Spectrum Deterrence", and second, he said, "Zero Meters To 2,750 kilometres". Both statements suggest a makeover attempt at horizontal and vertical levels in Pakistan's nuclear doctrine. Full Spectrum Deterrence and Zero Meters? At the horizontal level, Full Spectrum Deterrence(FSD) means expanding the nuclear triad at tactical and strategic levels from land, air and sea and making it more advanced with technology. Pakistan intends to increase its battlefield and strategic strike capabilities at vertical levels- tactical nuclear weapons(TNWs) to strategic nuclear weapons. If we specifically emphasize "zero meters", it is suggestive of advancing nuclear weapons used on the battlefields during the war. Though the zero meters emphasis may not be so new, the catch in Kidwai's speech was FSD, which could shake South Asia's regional security stability. Pakistan's first nuclear test at Chagai Hills in Balochistan province with Chinese support, and ever since China has been active in building Pakistan's nuclear arsenal. An unclassified document from the National Security Archive of the US shows that for 15 years, Beijing rebuffed US queries on Chinese aid to Pakistan's Nuclear programme. The record further indicates that in 1983 that China was assisting with the production of fissile materials and even continues to do so with clandestine cooperation. If Pakistan embarks on the FSD approach, this would accelerate this covert cooperation and strengthen Pakistan's overall nuclear deterrence capabilities throughout the spectrum- Land, Air and Sea. A month back China-Pak cooperation over maritime affairs gained traction when China delivered modern naval frigates to Pakistan. It won't be incorrect to read that if China-Pak cooperation is accelerating beyond geoeconomics, this Full spectrum deterrence for Pakistan becomes a visible reality. How New Delhi Reads Pakistan's Nuclear Shifting For New Delhi, except for China's beyond geoeconomics affairs with Pakistan, the sole "nuclear factor" in Indo-Pakistan relations is not much alarming but remains a strategic irritant for New Delhi if war happens between them. At the doctrinal level, India's credible minimum deterrence talks about punitive action in terms of massive retaliation if it gets attacked with nuclear weapons. Pakistan's doctrine talks about first strike capability of massive retaliation on a threshold basis with an India-centric approach. Both the doctrines have one difference- India is exercising caution and responsibility for nukes and ensuring retaliation only if "attacked". In contrast, Pakistan has open options to launch a nuclear attack if it feels "threatened" by India at any threshold level- economic, political and military. New Delhi's reading from this possible nuclear shifting episode is that rising stockpiling would not be that much of a concern, as said above, but using Chinese ticket to develop technologically advance Tactical Nuclear Weapons(TNWs), which can range from SRBMs to Automatic Mutation Devices(AMD) is a cause of concern, this gets more traction if it combines with various verticals of Pakistan firepower, especially with Pakistan's Navy and therefore this "Zero meters" and "Full Spectrum Deterrence" as strategic measure or policy for Pakistan's nuclear domain may strengthen not only Pakistan's nuclear blackmailing game but also strengthen the deterrence against India in case of tight conflict, putting the South Asian region on a bigger set of matchbox. Musharraf's Nuclear Plans Kargil War does provide some insights into the nuclear factor. As said above, both nations were on the verge of using nuclear weapons. The deterrence capability is one defining line that can bring a difference in nuclear warfare, whether it is offsetting one nuclear strike or putting nuclear pressure. As Parvez Musharaff defines the nuclear game- ." If we would attack India with one atomic bomb, then the neighbouring country could finish us by attacking with 20 bombs. Then the only solution is that we should first attack them with 50 atom bombs so that they cannot hit us with 20 bombs" such statements shaping Pakistan's nuclear doctrine with massive retaliation based on threat puts India in a difficult position in managing the conflict escalation ladder- a situation in 2001 after Parliament attacks when both nations came to a tight standoff and therefore, to hitting Pakistan with limited yet powerful strike is the only option, surgical strikes and air strikes in the past have done so. However, a probable shift in Pakistan's nuclear doctrine, if succeeded, then it may complicate India's options in maintaining the threshold while carrying out effective strikes or, for that matter, pre-emptive strikes. International pressure, sanctions, and India's growing counter-ballistic capabilities may, to some extent, help to manage the nuclear escalation ladder. But, any nuclear scenario between both nations will severely disturb the South Asian power game and lead to seeking a nuclear umbrella and triggering an arms race in the region; therefore, full spectrum status for Pakistan on any day will add more fuel to the nuclear fire. Srijan Sharma is a national security analyst specializing in Intelligence and security analysis and working as a Research Assitant in India's premier and prestigious national security and foreign policy think tank United Service Institution of India(USI). He has extensively written on matters of security and strategic affairs for various institutions, journals, newspapers (Telegraph) and The Organiser. He has also served as Defence Editor for a journal.

By Prof. Bharat H. Desai Csaba Kőrösi, the President of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) has invited (program; letter of July 17, 2023) the Heads of State and Government (HoS&G) for the 2023 High-level political forum on sustainable development under the auspices of the UNGA’s 2023 SDG Summit (September 18-19, 2023). It holds significance as a mid-point (2015-2030) of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) with a mission for: Transforming Our World. It was adopted vide UNGA resolution 70/1 of September 25, 2015. This global summit will also coincide with the commencement of the 78th session of the UNGA (2023-24). Thus, it seems, third week of September will witness all roads leading to the 78th UNGA in New York. The 2030 SDGs were adopted after marathon negotiations mandated by the 2012 Rio+20 Summit. This epoch-making instrument was built on the previous cycle of 2015 Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). It vividly underscored role of the UNGA, literally and metaphorically, as the conductor of a grand orchestra [Bharat H Desai (2004), Institutionalizing International Environmental Law, Transnational: New York, 144] to diagnose global problematique, propound an action plan and exhort the sovereign states to earnestly pursue it. As the plenary organ of the UN, the Assembly has sought to provide both legitimacy and direction to various inter-governmental processes for institutionalized international cooperation. In a way, the SDGs provide an audacity of hope as well as a way of atonement for the Commission of Sustainable Development (1992-2012) that faded away without a tear being shed. As a part of series of preparatory processes, on August 01, 2023, the UN Deputy Secretary-General, Amina Mohammed addressed a meeting on 2030 SDGs in Brazil. She stressed on the importance of the 2023 SDG Summit. “The Secretary-General is urging leaders to come to the UN General Assembly and the SDG Summit in September ready to contribute to a Rescue Plan for People and Planet. This means arriving with concrete national commitments and action plans to accelerate progress towards the SDGs,” she said. Lofty Goals for People and Planet The forthcoming 2023 SDG Summit shall have to undertake a serious review of prospects for realizing the Goals in the next seven years (2023-30). The SDGs were to be realized in an incremental and persuasive way in consonance with political convenience of the UN member states. The Goals necessitated a major rejiig of the global order, economy, societal structures, wasteful consumption patterns, unsustainable lifestyles and pervasive mindsets. At the SDG inauguration in 2015 (70th UNGA), terming the Agenda 2030 as “lofty”, the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi observed: “Sustainable development of one-sixth of humanity (India) will be of great consequence to the world and our beautiful planet”. However, the era of planetary crisis calls for a decisive course correction as the galloping human population [projected to reach 9.8 billion (2050) and 11.2 billion (2100)] will require natural resources equivalent of three planets to sustain current profligate lifestyles. In the face of this challenge, the SDGs seem to be utopian goals for people, planet, prosperity, peace and partnership. In a way, the SDGs underscore tragedy of the unfettered human quest for material progress. The usage of prefix sustainable provides value to the cherished targets, seeks to circumscribe inherent greed for development and fine tune relevance of sustainability in a rapidly changing world. The SDGs include challenges as diverse as inequality in living standards, infrastructure, water & sanitation, women empowerment, access to modern energy, quality education, healthy lives, poverty and hunger. Its preamble makes an emphatic assertion that “eradicating poverty in all its forms and dimensions, including extreme poverty, is the greatest global challenge and an indispensable requirement for sustainable development”. Does the audacious claim of not leaving anyone behind in that journey conjure up scenario of chasing a mirage in a world that is so unjust, inequitable and full of contradictions? As a result, the Goals inherently face an uphill task of matching grim reality with high expectations. Since 2000, two back-to-back global processes for MDGs (2000-2015) and SDGs (2015-2030) do underscore that there are Limits to Growth on this beleaguered planet. There is a legal quibbling over SDGs’ normative value. Still the SDGs provide a beacon of hope as sustainability agenda has risen like the proverbial Sphinx in the aftermath of the 1992 Rio and the 2012 Rio+20 Summits. SDGs and the Global Disorder As the HoS&G are set to take stock at the 2023 SDG Summit, the global order is in a perilous state. Apart from the havoc brought about by the Covid-19 pandemic (2020-2022), there are grave crisis signals that all the 17 Goals (169 targets) aimed at “leaving no one behind” are likely to go haywire. In that eventuality, there is a danger of SDGs meeting the fate of MDGs. Therefore, it is pertinent – in the scholarly realm – to take cognizance of some of the main contributing factors, events, situations and contingencies that could upturn the SDG applecart. These include: (i) World Without Glaciers: There are warnings about shrinking of the world’s ‘water towers’ (glaciers) that would affect availability of fresh water resources around the world. The UNSG has warned (March 22, 2023) that “Human activity is driving our planet’s temperature to dangerous new heights…turning glaciers, into the canary in the coalmine…Losing these giants would be a giant problem for our world”. (ii) Global Humanitarian Crisis: According to the UN Global Humanitarian Overview 2023, one in 23 people on the planet Earth needs help in order to survive. A record 339 million people need humanitarian assistance. “Never before have humanitarians been called to respond to this level of need…in ever more dangerous environments,” said Jens Laerke, the spokesperson of the UNOCHA. The estimated funding requirement for the UN’s humanitarian projects has been pegged at 50 billion US dollars. (iii) Extreme Climatic Events: The WMO’s State of Global Climate 2022 shows the planetary scale changes on land, in the ocean and in the atmosphere caused by record levels of heat-trapping GHGs. The last eight years (2015 to 2022) were the warmest on record. In fact, the extreme climatic events alone drove an estimated 16 million people into food crises in 15 countries. It also caused an exacerbated violence against women and children. It is likely to reach 100 million in coming years. (iv) Exacerbated Global Poverty: The Multidimensional Poverty Index (Octo 17, 2022) provided estimate of 1.2 billion people in 111 developing countries living in acute multidimensional poverty. The largest number of poor people live in Sub-Saharan Africa (579 million) and South Asia (385 million). It shows that central thrust of the SDGs for “eradicating poverty in all its forms and dimensions” is in serious jeopardy. (v) Violence Against Women (VAW): UnWomen data shows an estimated 736 million women – almost one in three – have been subjected to physical and/or sexual violence at least once in their life. It does not include sexual harassment. In 2021, in the EU alone, the cost of sexual and gender-based violence (SGBV) was estimated around €366 billion a year, out of which VAW constitutes 79 per cent (€289 billion). (vi) Nuclear Weapons Have Grown: There are nine nuclear-armed states (the USA, Russia, the UK, France, China, India, Pakistan, Israel and the North Korea). Out of the total inventory of an estimated 12705 warheads at the start of 2022, about 9440 were in military stockpiles for potential use. (vii) People Living in Conflict Zones: In a May 19, 2022 address to the UNSC, the UNSG expressed concern for some 60 percent of the world’s undernourished people living in the conflict zones. An estimated one-fourth of global population (2 billion) live in conflicts raging across Africa, Middle East, Latin America, Asia and Eastern Europe. SDG Stimulus & Rescue Plan Notwithstanding above grim global disorderly scenario, in February 2023, the UNSG has launched SDG Stimulus to Deliver Agenda 2030. It graphically states that, as of November 2022, “37 out of 69 of the world’s poorest countries were either at high risk or already in debt distress, while one in four middle-income countries, which host the majority of the extreme poor, were at high risk of fiscal crisis. The burden of debt overhang is battering the economies of many developing countries”. It is estimated that by 2030, an additional 175 million, including 89 million women and girls, would fall into the debt induced distress. Thus, a “great finance divide” threatens the SDG targets since ability of poorer countries has been sharply curtailed to invest in recovery, climate action, and sustainable development. As a consequence, the Zero Draft of the Political Declaration (June 08, 2023), to be adopted at the High-level Political Forum on Sustainable Development (HLPF), under the auspices of the General Assembly’s mandated 2023 SDG Summit, does note the ominous ground reality that “only 12 per cent of the SDGs are on track and 30 per cent remain unchanged or below the 2015 baseline. The progress on most of the SDGs is either moving much too slowly or has regressed”. In view of the above, it remains to be seen as to how far the 2023 SDG Stimulus call for financing for sustainable development materializes – at least $500 billion per year (concessional and non-concessional finance). Will the SDGs become an instrument to propel inter-governmental behavioral change, provide a roadmap for our salvation and become a harbinger of a new world bereft of misery? This posits the biggest challenge of the 21st century. It calls for grappling with the mirage of human development on the bedrock of ‘sustainability’. In view of the gravity of the crisis, it would be advisable if the 2023 SDG Summit considers concrete alternative pathways to meet basic aspirations of people in the disadvantaged parts of the world. It would require a radical departure from the current passivity – akin to the popular saga wherein Nero fiddled while Rome burned. Audacity of Hope In the midst of a planetary level crisis (see Bharat H. Desai, SIS Blog Special (March 29, 2023) – I and II and Green Diplomacy (Feb. 14, 2023)], it is an audacity of hope that the New York assembling of the HoS&G (September 18-19, 2023) would pay heed to the emergency button pushed by the UNSG (Stockholm+50; June 02, 2022) to ensure that the SDGs do not remain “hot air” and we decisively “end our senseless and suicidal war against nature”. The 2023 SDG Summit outcome would also impinge upon the prospects for the 2024 Summit of the Future. Ironically, the Zero Draft of the Political Declaration (June 08, 2023) merely provides a vague promise that: “We will endeavour to reach the furthest behind first”. Therefore, it remains to be seen as to how far the HoS&G will be able to walk-the-talk on their commitment “to bold, ambitious, accelerated and transformative actions” to attain sustainable world for people and planet. It would require an audacity of hope against hope and a miracle to realize all the SDGs seven years from now. The countdown would be a litmus test for all the right-thinking peoples and their nations to stand by the planet Earth. #UNSG #UNSC#UNGA #MEA #PMOIndia #WEF #2023 #SDGSummit Dr. Bharat H. Desai is Professor of International Law, Jawaharlal Nehru Chair and Chairperson of the Centre for International Legal Studies (SIS, JNU), who served as a member of the Official Indian Delegations to various multilateral negotiations (2002-2008), coordinated the knowledge initiatives for Making SIS Visible (2008-2013) and the Inter-University Consortium: JNU; Jammu; Kashmir; Sikkim (2012-2020) as well as contributes as the Editor-in-Chief of Environmental Policy and Law (IOS Press: Amsterdam)

By Anshu Kumar Introduction A wide array of deals and conclusions between India and the US during Prime Minister Modi’s State visit to the US is a major juncture in international politics which reflects a burgeoning India-US relationship in the face of Chinese aggression. India’s comfortable handshake with the US lies primarily on the touchstone of material interests. The recent defence deals between both nations showcase that the US is an indispensable partner for India, given India’s precarious dependence on Russia for military equipment owing to the Ukraine crisis. The jet engine deal and India’s purchase of MQ-9B predatory drones would add much weight to its military power. For a country which has struggled to make ingenious jet engines for decades, overwhelming technology transfers in the jet engine deal would be a boon in the short term, in the face of the Chinese challenge, and provide a springboard for its indigenous military production. Dictates of Realism Chinese strategy under Xi Jinping has forced India to forgo the belief that India could ‘manage’ China using its informal, diplomatic, or economic channels. It is also interesting to see India realize that it needs partners to boost its capability against an overwhelming China in Asia. Classical realists like Kautilya have warned that change in the relative material capabilities would always cause security dilemmas among neighbours. Sun Tzu, too, believes that states would be cautious about their national power vis-à-vis their foes. World Wars have shown that despite great economic interdependence, even in terms of high vulnerability interdependence, and various diplomatic and collective action-oriented international groupings, such as the League of Nations, neighbors were always on the qui vive. Albeit great power disparity between India and China, it is grotesque that Indian bureaucratic and foreign policy brass used to believe that India alone can handle China. Rajesh Rajagopalan, a Realist thinker, argues that India’s pomposity about managing China on its own is precarious especially ‘when India has been wrong about China so consistently over the last decade, whether it was on the initial outreach to Beijing, or the informal dialogue after the Doklam confrontation.’ India is always having a hard time accepting that power parity matters. Despite so many chants of non-alignment and strategic autonomy, India has invariably preferred realpolitik decisions when it came to its material interests and tilted to one or another superpower during and after the Cold War period. Modi’s official visit to the US showed that once material interests are finely knitted, the rest subsets of relationships— defence cooperation, people-to-people connections, collaboration on climate change, critical minerals, or supply chains —follow suit. Overcoming the ‘Hesitations of History’ India’s dilemma to balance Russia and the US, compounded by historical imperatives for Russia and a sceptical attitude towards the US, has reified the thinking, in its foreign policy strategic culture, that alignment with one partner may mean being chained up in a formal alliance. Especially when a large portion of India’s military armaments and paraphernalia is dependent upon Russia for modernization and rejuvenation, it is no doubt that India would take a cautious and steady step towards tilting to the American side. But the Xi factor has created the importunateness in Indian strategic thinking that the US is an ‘indispensable’ partner in its attempt to defend the territory against the dragon. Amidst the chant to create a multipolar world, India often blunts the fact that unlike China, which has a centralized state-to-society relationship complex and can choose to spend a great share of its already gargantuan GDP on its military in the long or short term, it does not have the luxury of national means given a multiparty democracy and already constrained military budget, of which a large chunk goes on salaries and entitlements of military personnel. Due to the ‘confluence’ of Indo-US interests, India seems to have overcome the 'hesitations of history.' PM Modi remarked in his address to the joint parliamentary session of the US: ‘We were strangers in defence cooperation at the turn of the century. Now, the US has become one of our most important defence partners.’ Defence Deals— a Major Breakthrough In this post-industrial era, the base for military power is ‘formidably complex’ military technologies. Owing to strict technology control regimes and the complex nature of modern weaponry, the prospects for technology proliferation are bleak. It takes decades of high-end investments in Research & Development (R&D) to produce intricate and ingenious weapons and their components. Despite such colossal investments, only a handful of states could maneuver the engineering and metallurgy to make jet engines. Nevertheless, they have struggled to modernize and evolve their jet engines. Jet engines are one of the most intricate components to make. The ability to manufacture a jet engine which could achieve a very high rotation speed, withstanding increased temperatures up to 1200 degrees Celsius and every nuance of mechanical complexity and aerodynamic pressures, is a labyrinthine task to get done. The US is one of those handful of states which has engineered this impossible task. India, for now, many decades, has struggled to produce the indigenous Kaveri jet engine for its Light Combat Aircrafts (LCA). The American General Electric (GE) agreement with India’s Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) to build jet engines in India, with an unprecedented eighty per cent technology transfer, showcase India’s importance in America’s current strategic calculus. This is underlined by the fact that the US has invariably chanted the ‘technology denial regime’ mantra, and it never transferred technological dexterity to such an extent even with its allies. The proposed F414 jet engines would power India’s Mk2 jets. This engine would enable Indian the LCA to carry more payload and fuel, equip advanced sensors, and wingtip missiles and would ensure a higher thrust-to-weight ratio. A higher thrust-to-weight ratio ensures greater acceleration and thrust to skyrocket in the air. Moreover, India’s plan to purchase the MQ-9B drones from the US is a major boost to its reconnaissance, surveillance, and precision strike capabilities against China in the North and the Indian Ocean Region. With an operation time of more than 27 hours and the ability to achieve around 50,000 feet of altitude, this expensive deal gives India an edge over China. The drone suits India well in its grey zone warfare against China on several land and sea frontiers. The drone is a multipurpose remotely operated unmanned vehicle that can enable Indian forces to perform round-the-clock surveillance and strike missions against China on her Northern borders. Thus, India’s overwhelming dependence on Russian military equipment and armaments at a time when the latter is entangled in Ukraine has raised eyebrows in the Indian strategic camp, especially akin to the debate surrounding the qualities of Russian armaments against the modern Western weapon systems. India’s strategic and defense ties with her ‘natural’ ally are a need of the hour at a time when a fiery dragon is ready to burn the Indian citadel. #IndoUS #PMModi #US #India #USVisit Anshu Kumar is a Master’s student at the School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi. His research interest lie in India’s relations with great powers, the rise of China in the international system, strategic studies, and Indian foreign policy.

By Prof. Gulshan Sachdeva The resort to far-right issues and language by conservative parties has given legitimacy to far-right politics. Now across Europe, far-right parties are making their presence felt in parliaments and inching closer to power in such heavyweight countries like Germany and France Although results of the recently held elections in Spain were inconclusive, the conservative Popular Party became the single largest party with 136 seats in a 350-seat Parliament. Its leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo had hoped that he would be able to win an absolute majority with the help of far-right Vox. For weeks, Vox was projected as a kingmaker. In fact, Vox’s campaign was endorsed by leading European nationalist leaders including Italy's Giorgia Meloni, Hungary's Viktor Orban and Poland’s Mateusz Morawiecki. But its tally has actually declined to 33 from 52 from the last Parliament. Now Spain is facing weeks or months of political uncertainty, which is not unusual. The Far-Right’s Rise In the meanwhile, the broad narrative as described by BBC’s political editor Katya Adler recently is that “look around Europe right now - north, south, east and west – and you see far-right parties of different flavours – nostalgic nationalist, populist nationalist, ultra conservative with neo-fascist roots and more – enjoying a notable resurgence”. The top four European Union (EU) economies viz. Germany, France, Italy and Spain have all seen the rise of far-right forces. In current ratings, Alternative for Germany (AfD) is 3 percent above the Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats (SPD). Marine Le Pen received 41 percent votes in the final round of presidential elections in France last year. Italy is now led by the first far-right government since the second World War. Depending on how politics unfold in Spain, Vox might join a ruling coalition in the near future. Some of the political parties which are much in focus in Europe are Alternative for Germany (AfD), National Rally (France), Freedom Party (Austria), Brothers of Italy, Liga (Italy), Vox (Spain), People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (Netherlands), Finns Party (Finland), Greek Solution, Sweden Democrats, Freedom and Direct Democracy (Czech Republic), Denmark Democrats, New Flemish alliance (Belgium), Revival (Bulgaria), AUR (Romania) and the UK Independence Party. For years, Fidesz in Hungary and the Law and Justice Party in Poland have been running right wing governments. Post-War Europe’s Lingering Spectre Even when Nazism and Fascism was discredited after the War, right-wing political parties continued to exist in most European countries. But they were insignificant electorally. Still, a few like the Italian Social Movement (MSI) continued to play a significant role. The current Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s party Brothers of Italy has its roots in the MSI. Till the late 1970s, a few like the Union and French Fraternity (UFF) gained significant political results but disappeared soon. With their opposition to deepening European economic integration and secularisation of politics, the far-right increased its electoral support from the 1980s. Few of them, like the Austrian Freedom Party (FPÖ) also entered the national Parliament. In the last twenty years, however, many of them have started moving from the fringes to the mainstream political space. Starting with 9/11 terrorist attacks, issues related to refugee influx, Eurozone crisis, terrorist incidents and failure of multiculturalism have given them space to grow. The EU has been a neoliberal project. It is well designed to be served by conservative or socialist parties or coalitions having a tilt towards the centre. The processes of globalisation and European integration in the last thirty years created more interdependence within Europe and with the outside world. This coincided with the broader decline of the West. How Far-Right Gained Legitimacy When traditional political parties appeared to take moderate or muddled positions on immigration, terrorism, multiculturalism and national sovereignty, the right wing parties came out with clear policies opposing integration of nations, markets and people. When rightist parties started expanding, many centre-right conservative parties also started using far-right language on issues like immigration to protect their own voter base. This provided legitimacy to far-right politics. Although Nigel Farage of the UKIP was pushing for Brexit, it was Conservative David Cameron who actually promised the 2016 Brexit referendum. The European far-right engage in politics in the name of “people” against “the elites”. They are also constantly searching for “enemies”. They are also increasingly collaborating and using each other’s language. The Trump presidency in the United States gave them a boost. One dominant issue is of course immigration. But they are also sceptical of many international institutions including the EU. Interestingly, many of them also admire Russian President Vladimir Putin for what he is doing for his own nation. Today the far-right is present in many European parliaments. Starting with Austria in 1999, they are now part of many ruling coalitions. These coalitions have modified their behaviour. Instead of leaving, almost all of them now want to reform the EU from within. However, in a position of constitutional majority as is the case in Hungary, their opposition to key institutional values of liberal democracy such as independent judiciary, free press and pluralism have become clear. #Spain #Elections #Europe #FarRight Originally Published : Money Control, on 2nd August, 2023 https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/opinion/the-european-far-right-a-long-journey-from-the-fringes-to-the-mainstream-11078181.html Posted in SIS Blog with the authorisation of the Author. Prof. Dr. Gulshan Sachdeva is Professor, Centre for European Studies and Coordinator, Jean Monnet Centre of Excellence, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, India