By Srijan Sharma
As India celebrates the 24th Vijay Diwas of winning the Kargil War in 1999, the nuclear question between two arch rivals refreshed once again how an atomic scenario could have rolled out during war when both nations reportedly weighed the nuclear option. In 1999 Pakistan moved ballistic missiles towards the border. The White House officials and security experts in 2000 claimed that India, too, was preparing five nuclear-tipped ballistic missiles. The nuclear escalations between the two nations had never come to such close brink.
Still, ever since 1999-2001, Pakistan's show-offing and warmongering about nuclear warfare have always been in the headlines. In 2019, the nuclear question again resurfaced after India carried out Balakot Air strikes. A few days back, Pakistan's strategic planners hinted towards a shift in Pakistan's nuclear doctrine, which seemed to be quite radical to some extent. Pakistan's Nuclear Expert and Advisor to National Command Authority- Lt General(R) Khalid Kidwai, on the 25th Anniversary of Pakistan's Nuclear Tests, sent ripples across the strategic and security community from West to Asia when he revisited Pakistan's Nuclear strategy. Kidwai, in his speech, touched on two important things- first, he referred to" Full Spectrum Deterrence", and second, he said, "Zero Meters To 2,750 kilometres". Both statements suggest a makeover attempt at horizontal and vertical levels in Pakistan's nuclear doctrine.
Full Spectrum Deterrence and Zero Meters?
At the horizontal level, Full Spectrum Deterrence(FSD) means expanding the nuclear triad at tactical and strategic levels from land, air and sea and making it more advanced with technology. Pakistan intends to increase its battlefield and strategic strike capabilities at vertical levels- tactical nuclear weapons(TNWs) to strategic nuclear weapons. If we specifically emphasize "zero meters", it is suggestive of advancing nuclear weapons used on the battlefields during the war. Though the zero meters emphasis may not be so new, the catch in Kidwai's speech was FSD, which could shake South Asia's regional security stability. Pakistan's first nuclear test at Chagai Hills in Balochistan province with Chinese support, and ever since China has been active in building Pakistan's nuclear arsenal.
An unclassified document from the National Security Archive of the US shows that for 15 years, Beijing rebuffed US queries on Chinese aid to Pakistan's Nuclear programme. The record further indicates that in 1983 that China was assisting with the production of fissile materials and even continues to do so with clandestine cooperation. If Pakistan embarks on the FSD approach, this would accelerate this covert cooperation and strengthen Pakistan's overall nuclear deterrence capabilities throughout the spectrum- Land, Air and Sea. A month back China-Pak cooperation over maritime affairs gained traction when China delivered modern naval frigates to Pakistan. It won't be incorrect to read that if China-Pak cooperation is accelerating beyond geoeconomics, this Full spectrum deterrence for Pakistan becomes a visible reality.
How New Delhi Reads Pakistan's Nuclear Shifting
For New Delhi, except for China's beyond geoeconomics affairs with Pakistan, the sole "nuclear factor" in Indo-Pakistan relations is not much alarming but remains a strategic irritant for New Delhi if war happens between them. At the doctrinal level, India's credible minimum deterrence talks about punitive action in terms of massive retaliation if it gets attacked with nuclear weapons. Pakistan's doctrine talks about first strike capability of massive retaliation on a threshold basis with an India-centric approach. Both the doctrines have one difference- India is exercising caution and responsibility for nukes and ensuring retaliation only if "attacked". In contrast, Pakistan has open options to launch a nuclear attack if it feels "threatened" by India at any threshold level- economic, political and military.
New Delhi's reading from this possible nuclear shifting episode is that rising stockpiling would not be that much of a concern, as said above, but using Chinese ticket to develop technologically advance Tactical Nuclear Weapons(TNWs), which can range from SRBMs to Automatic Mutation Devices(AMD) is a cause of concern, this gets more traction if it combines with various verticals of Pakistan firepower, especially with Pakistan's Navy and therefore this "Zero meters" and "Full Spectrum Deterrence" as strategic measure or policy for Pakistan's nuclear domain may strengthen not only Pakistan's nuclear blackmailing game but also strengthen the deterrence against India in case of tight conflict, putting the South Asian region on a bigger set of matchbox.
Musharraf's Nuclear Plans
Kargil War does provide some insights into the nuclear factor. As said above, both nations were on the verge of using nuclear weapons. The deterrence capability is one defining line that can bring a difference in nuclear warfare, whether it is offsetting one nuclear strike or putting nuclear pressure. As Parvez Musharaff defines the nuclear game- ." If we would attack India with one atomic bomb, then the neighbouring country could finish us by attacking with 20 bombs. Then the only solution is that we should first attack them with 50 atom bombs so that they cannot hit us with 20 bombs" such statements shaping Pakistan's nuclear doctrine with massive retaliation based on threat puts India in a difficult position in managing the conflict escalation ladder- a situation in 2001 after Parliament attacks when both nations came to a tight standoff and therefore, to hitting Pakistan with limited yet powerful strike is the only option, surgical strikes and air strikes in the past have done so.
However, a probable shift in Pakistan's nuclear doctrine, if succeeded, then it may complicate India's options in maintaining the threshold while carrying out effective strikes or, for that matter, pre-emptive strikes. International pressure, sanctions, and India's growing counter-ballistic capabilities may, to some extent, help to manage the nuclear escalation ladder. But, any nuclear scenario between both nations will severely disturb the South Asian power game and lead to seeking a nuclear umbrella and triggering an arms race in the region; therefore, full spectrum status for Pakistan on any day will add more fuel to the nuclear fire.
Srijan Sharma is a national security analyst specializing in Intelligence and security analysis and working as a Research Assitant in India's premier and prestigious national security and foreign policy think tank United Service Institution of India(USI). He has extensively written on matters of security and strategic affairs for various institutions, journals, newspapers (Telegraph) and The Organiser. He has also served as Defence Editor for a journal.