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By Prof. Gulshan Sachdeva Rishi Sunak’s top priority will be to get the UK’s economy back on track, and unite a badly-divided Conservative Party We did not have a UK-India FTA on Diwali, as hoped by the then visiting British Prime Minister Boris Johnson earlier this year. But we do have an Indian-origin Prime Minister in 10 Downing Street now. Rishi Sunak’s ascent to power has generated a lot of interest in India. The UK’s youngest Prime Minister in 200 years is a practicing Hindu who earlier took oath on the Bhagwad Gita. Despite being relatively new to British politics, he has played his cards well. Within a few years of becoming Member of Parliament, he was first appointed Chancellor of Exchequer, and now Prime Minister. This despite the fact that he is non-white and descendant of immigrants from India and East Africa. Although the recent political turmoil within the Conservative Party, and economic difficulties have provided an opportunity for him to become British Prime Minister, this is certainly a huge achievement for British democracy. This does not mean racism is finished in Britain, or suddenly the United Kingdom has become a successful multicultural society. Still, this indicates further maturity in British politics, attitudes, and its democracy. This is not a small achievement. It also shows that merit and competence get rewarded in a free British society. In his first speech as Prime Minister he highlighted that the country is “facing a profound economic crisis”. Further, the “aftermath of Covid still lingers” and "Putin's war in Ukraine has destabilised energy markets and supply chains the world over”. Without specifying details, he asserted that through “integrity, professionalism and accountability” he would bring “economic stability”, and fix some mistakes made by his predecessor. Sunak is a technocrat, and showed his competence as a Chancellor of Exchequer during the pandemic. This is perhaps the reason he is chosen by his party. But the real challenge for him is political. As a leader he has to unite a badly-divided Conservative Party. Many members of the Boris Johnson Cabinet are back. Since Tories are in no mood to go for elections now, he has more than two years to provide economic stability, unite the party, and lead Tories in the next general elections. His appointments may bring some calm in financial markets. But his political leadership to implement “hard economic decisions” to control inflation, and inject growth still needs to be demonstrated. Despite some euphoria in India, Sunak’s impact on India-UK ties will be marginal at best. The bilateral ties are already on an upward trajectory. This momentum will continue. The comprehensive strategic partnership, Roadmap 2030, and British tilt towards the Indo-Pacific have already brought the two countries closer. The most important deliverable expected is a bilateral FTA. Apart from agreements on many chapters, mobility of skilled Indians to the UK could be a sticky point. Another Indian-origin MP, Suella Braverman has been re-appointed as Home Secretary. She earlier branded Indians as the largest group of migrants who overstayed in the UK. Sunak has also been an early backer of Brexit, wants more controls of its borders, and favours deporting of asylum seekers to Rwanda. So tough negotiations on mobility issue are expected under the Sunak administration. Although the UK’s economic conditions are not very favourable towards a new trade agreement, both sides feel that early FTA will help trade and investment in the coming years. Internationally, Sunak will continue to follow the UK's role and responsibilities at the UNSC, NATO, G7, and G20. With his international exposure and background, he will have little difficulty in adjusting to this role. No change is expected in Britain’s prominent role in support of Ukraine. At this point in history, Sunak has got an opportunity to prove his capability in stabilising the British economy. The markets would expect a detailed and credible tax rise, expenditure cut, and defence spending plan of action. The accumulated economic problems are the result of Brexit shocks, the pandemic, and the Ukraine war. Some of the issues can be tackled through domestic responses, but many issues need wider co-ordination within Europe and beyond. Still, a limited economic stability can strengthen him politically within the Conservative Party’s rank and file. Tories are fast losing popularity. Sunak’s main job at the moment is to keep the party united so that it can avoid a general election which could prove disastrous for the Conservatives. The Brexit is done. But the Brexiters are now reluctant to go to electorates. #India #UK #India-UKTies #Politics #RishiSunak Originally published: Money Control, October 26, 2022. https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/opinion/india-uk-ties-despite-euphoria-rishi-sunaks-impact-will-be-marginal-at-best-9392531.html Posted in SIS Blog with the authorization of the author. Gulshan Sachdeva is Professor at the Centre for European Studies and Coordinator, Jean Monnet Centre of Excellence, Jawaharlal Nehru University.

By Prof. Swaran Singh In his speech at the opening session of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China on Sunday, CPC Central Committee General Secretary Xi Jinping highlighted China's achievements and future development and strategic trajectories. One example among these that carry inevitable implications for post-pandemic global resilience is Xi's enunciation of the Chinese path to modernization with its clearly defined benchmarks and timelines. A careful reading of Xi's speech shows economic growth is but only a part of his prescribed indexes in his modernization philosophy. A tentative count of its pillars include upholding the overall leadership of the Party and socialism with Chinese characteristics, developing whole-process people's democracy, enriching the Chinese people's cultural lives and achieving common prosperity, promoting harmony between humankind and nature and a new form of human advancement, and building a community with a shared future for mankind. As the world's second-largest economy — and possibly the world's largest economy by 2030 — Chinese modernization trajectories remain deeply intertwined with those of the rest of the world. As the world's largest trading nation with huge foreign exchange reserves and nearly 30 percent share of global manufacturing — and home to emerging global brands thanks to innovations and cutting-edge research — China has also increasingly become part of global governance structures and processes. In 2016, the World Bank recognized China as an upper-middle income country. Given all this, Xi's underlying vision behind China's continued pursuit of modernization portends critical system-shaping possibilities. And, at its core, Xi's vision aims to present an alternative to war, violence and market competition-driven conventional Western models of national development. The first distinction that calls for the world to take notice is Xi's continued stress on making the Chinese path to modernization peaceful and to strive for shared prosperity for all. This may appear idealistic. But China's successful eradication of absolute poverty makes Xi's contentions worth a careful scrutiny. Second, the new era under Xi's leadership has also seen China playing a more prominent role in global governance structures and processes. One yardstick of this recognition is the US' National Security Strategy reports of February 2015, December 2017 and October 2022 mentioning China 12, 33 and 54 times respectively. Third, many developing nations may also find the Chinese development model enticing. After all, China remains a developing country and its economic miracle is just more than four decades old. Being on a similar curve, emerging economies, too, will find China's development model engaging. In particular, the COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted the global industry and supply chains and slowed down the economic development of most countries, prompting them to seek serious course correction and explore alternative choices to revitalize their industry and supply chains and boost their economic growth. The new era has already seen Xi launch global development alternatives such as the Belt and Road Initiative and propose to build a community with a shared future for mankind — and more recently put forward alternative development and security-safeguard paradigms like the Global Development Initiative and the Global Security Initiative. All these remain closely connected with Xi's modernization drive that aims to realize common prosperity by improving income distribution. In his speech, Xi also talked about ensuring a "more work, more pay" system to enable people to work hard and achieve greater prosperity. Having eradicated extreme poverty, China now seeks to focus on eliminating relative poverty by ensuring equality of opportunity and taking measures to raise the incomes of low-income earners. This will further expand the size of China's middle-income earners which already adds up to 500 million. Conversely, this calls for keeping tabs on accumulation of wealth and ensuring wealth distribution is well regulated. Way back in December 2012, Xi introduced the idea of a "Chinese Dream" and the Chinese modernization drive marks the next step toward achieving that goal. The Chinese Dream is not to be confused with the proverbial "American Dream "that focuses on unleashing individual energy for personal prosperity. Indeed, this commitment remains enshrined in the United States Constitution that grants citizens the fundamental right to life, liberty and pursuit of happiness. The Chinese Dream, besides people's well-being, also visualizes national rejuvenation and cultural rejuvenation of the nation. Taken together with Xi's Global Development Initiative, his modernization paradigm seeks to present a "new choice" for humankind where education, science and technology and human resources are to be the foundational and strategic pillars for developing China into a modern socialist country by creating an open, globally competitive innovation-driven ecosystem. This is bound to make the Chinese modernization all the more closely intertwined with the rest of the world. And with the world's second-largest population and fifth-largest economy, India will have to pay closer attention to China's development trajectories and the vision behind it. #China #CPC #Modernization #XiJinping Originally published: China Daily, October 21, 2022. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202210/21/WS6351ce83a310fd2b29e7da90.html?fbclid=IwAR1ERmwJwI_ZmPpBlzQpcT2Z2EoSYqssA0uPYtJATKW-1Ud3i4mhIwrjt6s Posted in SIS Blog with the authorization of the author. Swaran Singh is a professor of diplomacy and disarmament at Jawaharlal Nehru University (New Delhi) and a visiting professor at the University of British Columbia (Vancouver, Canada).

By Prof. Swaran Singh This week India hosted its 12th DefExpo in Gandhinagar in the western province of Gujarat. With its theme of “Path to Pride” – and guided by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s “Make in India” and “Self-Reliant India” campaigns – it not only showcased India’s state-of-the-art defense technologies but seemed to unleash its so-called “animal spirit” in forging partnerships among Indians as well as with other global manufacturers. As this biannual exhibition comes to a close on Saturday, the DefExpo can boast of the presence of 1,340 companies from the Indian defense industry, including 100 startups, plus others from 75 participating nations, resulting in the signing of at least 450 memoranda of understanding. Inaugurating it on Tuesday, Modi spoke of India’s defense exports having increased by eight times in last eight years and India now exporting defense materials and equipment to more than 75 countries, leading him to set the target of US$5 billion worth of such exports annually by 2025. In fact, inaugurating the Aero India 2021 airshow at Yelahanka Air Force Station near Bangalore last year, Defense Minister Rajnath Singh had already announced targets of taking domestic defense production to $25 billion and exports to $5 billion by 2025. Yet another report talked of defense exports having risen by 334% in last five years, claiming the defense sector was on the “cusp of a revolution.” On cusp of revolution This mood and momentum in India’s defense exports were surmised in Modi’s inaugural address to the DefExpo, where he said: “This is the very same country that once released pigeons; today it has reached a stage where it is releasing cheetahs.” He was referring to pigeons being the symbols of peace and to himself releasing on his birthday last month eight Namibian cheetahs into Kuno National Park in central India. In fact many sectors in India have lately begun talking of being on the “cusp of a revolution,” promising transformative early harvests of impressive outcomes. As for the defense sector, last year witnessed major restructuring in the Department of Defense Production (DDP). Seven new defense companies were carved out of its erstwhile Ordnance Factory Board. DefExpo 2022 saw them making their debut presence. Second, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) database has for years shown India as world’s largest importer of arms. So, as part of course correction by encouraging indigenous production, DefExpo 2022 saw the DPP release its fourth Positive Indigenization List (PIL) of 101 items – taking the total to 411 defense items – that will be procured only from domestic production. The first three PILs were issued in quick succession on August 21, 2020, May 31, 2021, and April 7, 2022, underlining the DPP’s commitment to fast-forward this transformation. Third, in exploring its competitive edge beyond Southeast Asia, the Middle East and the Indian Ocean littoral, India has begun to focus on Africa. On the opening day of DefExpo 2022, 53 African countries joined the second India-Africa Defense Dialogue (IADD). Delegates included 13 ministers, four deputy ministers and other African senior defense officials. The inaugural IADD was held in Lucknow in 2020 with an objective of turning India into a potential competitive arms supplier for Africa. Leap of faith It is important, however, to underline the formidable emotional and structural challenges that lie in the way of this newfound excitement. Being the land of the Buddha and Mahatma Gandhi – and known for having achieved its independence through a piecemeal transfer of power, largely through non-violent means – India for long was uncomfortable with either joining military alliances or exporting weapons. The first jolt to India’s low priority to defense came in the war with China in 1962. This saw defense expenditure being doubled, though as a percentage of gross domestic product, it remains lower than the global average and especially lower compared with its countries of concern, Pakistan and China. Successive governments did try to modernize their inherited gargantuan colonial defense establishment, but resources remained limited and changes sporadic. Serious change began from the early 1990s; with the improved growth rates of India’s economy, budgets saw greater resource allocations for arms procurement, modernization and indigenization. With increasing defense budgets, India became conscious of spending enormous amounts of precious foreign exchange on arms imports that were subsidizing research and development in supplier nations. India also learned lessons of its limitations in ensuring quick and assured supplies in times of urgent need, such as during the 1999 Kargil War. More recently, Russian military operations in Ukraine may push India into reducing reliance on Russia. In fact, experts compare imported defense equipment to crutches. By this logic, excessive reliance on defense imports can diminish the military muscle of a nation in the long run. It can make the importing nation captive to dictates by suppliers and vulnerable to greedy and opportunistic middlemen trying to capitalize in times of crisis for the recipient nation. Indigenization drive Arms exports therefore have to be understood as a byproduct of India’s drive for indigenization. License production with Russia has moved to joint research and development. Their BrahMos cruise missiles joint venture has made India a sought-after exporter. But the Department of Defense Production now showcases bigger achievements like India’s first indigenous aircraft carrier INS Vikrant, the “Prachand” advanced light combat helicopter, and laser-guided anti-tank guided missiles. At DefExpo 2022, Modi unveiled India’s latest HTT-40 trainer aircraft designed by Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd. Second, it is important to note that India remains primarily focused in promoting non-lethal defense exports. India’s export brochures list a whole range of solutions from bulletproof vests and vehicle armor to anti-drone systems, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), mine-protected vehicles and so on. This makes the United States the largest market for India’s defense exports, followed by Israel, Armenia and, more recently, the Philippines and other Southeast Asian and Middle East nations. India is now exploring opportunities in South America. Third, the credibility of India’s exports is backed by proven battlefield capabilities of the country’s armed forces and by the acceptance of indigenously produced weapons systems. Another interesting fact is that India’s defense production, which in the past was totally state-owned, has over the years encouraged public-private-partnership (PPP) and opened up several sectors for even 100% investment. As a result, more than 50 Indian companies in the private sector are known for contributing to India’s defense exports. Speaking at DefExpo 2022, Defense Minister Rajnath Singh said India had already signed contracts for defense exports worth $1 billion in first six months of this year and since 2014 India had made defense exports worth more than $4 billion. Another report quoted India’s Defense Ministry claiming a sixfold increase in defense exports since 2014 reaching a total of $1.6 billion for financial year 2021-22. Reflecting this fervor, and backed by additional orders from the Philippines as well as progress made in its negotiations with Vietnam, Malaysia and few other nations, Atul D Rane, the chairman of India’s flagship BrahMos Aerospace, claims its BrahMos cruise missiles alone will be able to achieve the set export target of $5 billion by 2025. Long way to go However, notwithstanding this enthusiasm, India has a long way to go in making its presence felt in the global arms market. According to SIPRI, for the period 2017-2021, India was listed at 23rd out of the 25 largest exporters, accounting for a 0.2% share. This leaves India far behind the big five – the US, Russia, France, China and Germany – that together account for 77% of all arms exports. This, however, can also be seen as reflecting enormous space to maneuver. The ongoing Ukraine war could not only negatively impact Russia’s defense exports but present India as an ideal candidate to take that space as well. A potential scenario of India reaching even a single-digit percentage share of the global market could make a great difference for its future course. Making that first dent should be possible for India given its track record and visible global presence. But India will have to continue with reforms at home. Currently, India’s defense production revolves around 16 defense public sector undertakings (DPSUs) and 41 ordnance factories, and yet it is India’s foreign joint ventures and private companies that have led this recent upsurge in defense exports. This is in spite of its state DPSUs having the great advantage of availing India’s defense and other lines of credit extended to various recipient nations, availing preferential trade agreements and services of defense attachés in Indian missions abroad. Both the need and the opportunity for defense exports seem to be staring India in the face to cross that “cusp” and revolutionize India’s defense sector. It will be equally interesting to explore its spin-offs for various civilian sectors. #ArmsExports #DefExpo #IndianMilitary Originally published: Asia Times, October 21, 2022. https://asiatimes.com/2022/10/are-indias-arms-exports-on-cusp-of-a-revolution/?fbclid=IwAR2t2t5v4vVYPROEhK-2Wxxbq-_w6l4N7Qjd_4h2lETEREFPV9NzEXSwTE8 Posted in SIS Blog with the authorization of the author. Swaran Singh is visiting professor at the University of British Columbia and professor of diplomacy and disarmament, School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi. He is president of the Association of Asia Scholars; adjunct senior fellow at the Charhar Institute, Beijing; senior fellow, Institute for National Security Studies Sri Lanka, Colombo; and visiting professor, Research Institute for Indian Ocean Economies, Kunming.

By Prof. Amitabh Mattoo As High Commissioner to India and Foreign Secretary of Pakistan, he believed the two nations can resolve their issues if India has a larger heart and Pakistan develops more thoughtful head In the passing away of Humayun Khan, former foreign secretary of Pakistan and Islamabad’s envoy to New Delhi, the Indian Subcontinent has lost a wise, almost sagely soul, who was also a “formidable diplomat, a thinker of high calibre and a genuine humanist,” as former Pakistani Senator (and current leader of the Pashtun Tahafuz Movement), Afrasaib Khattak, described him. Khan was a Pashtun in the mould of the “frontier” Gandhi, Badshah Khan, rather than the usurpers of Pashtunwali, the dreadful Taliban. He was, above all, a passionate believer in India-Pakistan dosti. Khan understood that long-term realism in South Asia demands moving beyond the tactical and looking forward towards a common and secure future. In the last decades of his full and varied life, he devoted himself to his two passions — the cause of India-Pakistan peace and rural development, especially to ensure the sustainable development of the people of his beloved Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. For Humayun “Lalla”, the essence of the problematique of India-Pakistan relations was simple: India must have a larger heart and Pakistan must develop a more thoughtful head. If an expansive heart of India met the sensitive spirit of Pakistan, no problem would be too difficult to resolve. Unfortunately, he did not live long enough to see this dream translate into reality. Even his formidable adversaries within the Indian establishment spoke of his generosity, in thought and action. The former Indian High Commissioner to Pakistan, Gopalaswamy Parthasarthy, often seen as a hardliner, happily admitted to me that Khan “was a class apart”. Parthasarthy and Khan had co-authored a book, Diplomatic Divide, reminiscing about their lives in Islamabad and New Delhi, respectively. Khan belonged to a distinguished Pashtun family of Peshawar and had his early education as a boarder at Bishop Cotton School, Shimla, and then went to earn a tripos from Trinity at Cambridge. Subsequently, he joined the Civil Service of Pakistan and served primarily in the Northwest Frontier (now Khyber Pakhtunkhwa) including as Political Agent in Malakand and North Waziristan and then as Home Secretary for the Province. In the 1970s was Khan first seconded to and then permanently absorbed in the Pakistan foreign service serving as its High Commissioner in Bangladesh and then India before being promoted and superannuating as Foreign Secretary. In the early 1990s, he served as Pakistan’s High Commissioner to the United Kingdom. TCA Raghavan, India’s High Commissioner to Islamabad from 2013-2015, described Khan as a “mentor and friend”. The high point of Humayun Khan’s tenure was his four-year stint as High Commissioner to India, from 1984-1988 and as Foreign Secretary for less than a year thereafter. As High Commissioner, he arrived in New Delhi in the last months of Indira Gandhi’s tenure as Prime Minister and stayed through the initial bonhomie of the Rajiv Gandhi-Benazir Bhutto diplomatic honeymoon and presided over the twists and turns during that intriguing period in bilateral relations. When Khan called on Mrs Gandhi, he found that, not surprisingly, she did not like General Zia-ul Haq but she reserved real animosity for Zulifiqar Ali Bhutto. This was because the bitterness that she still nursed about the betrayal at Shimla. As is well known, ZAB had agreed at Shimla to converting the Line of Control into the international border but wanted time to “prepare his people” before signing a formal agreement. In Mrs Gandhi’s view, ZAB did a complete U-turn once he returned to Pakistan from Shimla. One of the most enduring bilateral agreements between India and Pakistan, “The Agreement on the Prohibition of Attack Against Nuclear Installations and Facilities – the Non-Attack Agreement”) was signed by Khan and his Indian counterpart, K P S Menon, on December 31, 1988. A notable failure during Khan’s tenure as Foreign Secretary was the inability to arrive at an agreement and disengage at the Siachen glacier. Both Rajiv Gandhi and Benazir Bhutto, seeking a major foreign policy success (Rajiv Gandhi particularly after the fiasco in Sri Lanka and Nepal) had apparently personally intervened to give “political clearance” to a plan to demilitarise Siachen but the agreement fell apart after meeting strong opposition from the Indian armed forces, unwilling to move out of the dominating heights of the Saltro ridge. My personal relationship with Humayun “Lalla” evolved while chairing for a decade the only meaningful Track 2 dialogue with the blessings of the top leadership on both sides. His was a voice of reason, of restraint, of moderation and nuance and he brought with him the highest drafting skills when demanded. I hosted him as Vice Chancellor at Jammu, and I remember him talking about izzat as being at the heart of Pashtunwali. “All of us in South Asia are driven by our honour. The izzat you have conferred on me today, Amitabh, has overwhelmed me – there is very little I will not do for you! Imagine the consequences if our beloved countries can just learn to respect each other.” #India #Pakistan #HumayunKhan Originally published: The Indian Express, September 29, 2022. https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/humayun-khan-india-pakistan-dosti-8168396/ Posted in SIS Blog with the authorization of the author. Amitabh Mattoo is Professor at CIPOD, JNU and an Honorary Professor at the University of Melbourne, founded and co-chaired the now disbanded Chaophraya dialogue for over a decade.

Eurasian Insights: Strengthening Indo-Pacific Studies in Europe (EISPIS) is an international project focused on increasing knowledge and awareness of the Indo-Pacific region. It is co-funded by European Union under Cooperation for innovation and the exchange of good practices Erasmus+ KA203 - Strategic Partnerships for higher education (project number: 2019-1-PL01-KA203-065644, http://eisips.eu/). The main objective of EISIPS is to strengthen Indo-Pacific studies. As the broad region of Indo-Pacific is getting more and more attention both from policy-makers and scholars, there is a growing demand for better understanding of the region which is provided by the growing research area of Indo-Pacific studies. For the purpose of the project Indo-Pacific studies are defined as a multidisciplinary research area focusing on the political, economic and social developments in the Indo-Pacific region. Project is coordinated by Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, University of Warsaw (Poland) by dr. Barbra Kratiuk. Centre for European Studies, School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University is one of the partners in the project. Other partners in the project are: Adam Mickiewicz University (Poland), La Sapienza University Rome (Italy), University of St Andrews (UK), Ritsumeikan Asia Pacific University (Japan). It is also worth to mention associate partners: The National Maritime Foundation (India), International Christian University (Japan) and South Asia Democratic Forum (Belgium). EISIPS is directed to teachers, students, and experts working on Indo-Pacific Studies (IPS) both from and beyond the EU. To address the needs of these target groups and improve the quality of IPS in Europe, the project is in line with the following EU priorities for higher education: Open education and innovative practices in a digital era Developing skills – developing curricula relevant to the labor market and societal needs Supporting the transfer of latest research back into education The objectives of the project range from creating didactic materials, recommendations and organizing events, and their common aim is to improve the quality of teaching IPS by offering a comprehensive set of innovative didactic tools in an Open Access manner as well with tips and guidelines on how to use them. EISIPS will work toward strengthening the global position of IPS education in the European Union. The project’s main objectives are: 1. Open Access New Handbook A multidisciplinary, state-of-the-art, Handbook of Indo-Pacific Studies, covering historical and contemporary issues of politics, security, economics, culture, society and other aspects of IPS in a comprehensive way. Handbook will be available in open access (free to download) till end of 2022. 2. Free Online podcasts A series of supporting online podcasts presenting handbook topics in an accessible way for learners and teachers. These can serve as e-learning materials for the handbook or as an introduction to the topic for anyone interested. You can listen to podcast for free: https://open.spotify.com/show/084dGSmUq254J7JAX15lga 3. Teaching Guidelines A user-guide on how to implement innovative teaching techniques and assessment methods in Indo-Pacific Studies, which were tailor-made for teachers planning to use the handbook and other didactic materials. For students and other end-users there will be specific guidelines and tips for self-study. 4. Curriculum Design Another goal of EISIPS is to make recommendations for institutions that teach IPS to improve existing IPS curricula in higher education by altering or complementing course offers and making the content more relevant to the contemporary labor market. On 22nd and 23rd of September 2022 under EISPIS project workshop was held in the Centre for European Studies, School Of International Studies. Workshops were organized by prof. Gulshan Sachdeva who is the team leader of the project at JNU. Prof. Baswati Sarkar, prof. Shankari Sundararaman, prof. Jayati Srivastava and prof. Jitendra Uttam from JNU are also involved in EISPS project. Over 30 students of JNU were guests during lectures. Inaugural Address was given by prof. Santishree Dhulipudi Pandit, Vice Chancellor, JNU. Keynote speech during the first day of the workshop was delivered by Prof. Adam Burakowski, Ambassador of the Republic of Poland to India. One of the session was opened by Prof Srikanth Kondapalli, Dean, School of International Studies, JNU. Lectures were held by EISIPS team members from Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, University of Warsaw: · dr. Barbara Kratiuk, Strategic Alliances and Alignments in the Indo-Pacific · dr. Aleksandra Jaskólska, Cultural Issues in the Indo-Pacific · Ambassador Tomasz Łukaszuk, Maritime Governance in Indo-Pacific · dr. Karina Jędrzejowska, Development Issues in the Indo-Pacific · dr. Anna Wróbel, Trade Integration in the Indo-Pacific and by EISIPS team members from Adam Mickiewicz University: · prof. Przemysław Osiewicz, International Conflicts in the Indo-Pacific · dr. Rafał Wiśniewski, Military Competition in the Indo-Pacific We encourage you to join EISIPS Team on 15 and 16 December at the Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, University of Warsaw for international conference and workshops: “Indo-Pacific and the shape of international relations”. How to join? You just need to visit EISIPS website and submit the application: http://eisips.eu/events/conference.html. We would like to propose the following questions for debate: · Is the concept of Indo-Pacific truly necessary for understanding modern IR? · How and why are states outside of the region engaging with it? · What are the perceptions of Indo-Pacific in and outside of the region? · How does Indo-Pacific impact the security and stability of the international system? Keynote Speakers during the conference: · Kate Sullivan de Estada, University of Oxford · Jagannath Panda, Stockholm Center for South Asian and Indo-Pacific Affairs. Workshop registration: http://eisips.eu/events/workshop.html. Students during the workshop will have the opportunity to discuss their research in small groups with dedicated researchers and gain valuable feedback. We would like to especially encourage early PhD scholars and students who are working on their Master’s thesis in international relations, that deal with topics related to Indo-Pacific. In case you would like to stay up to date on the activities of the project, our friends and the research conducted on the topic, we also encourage you to join our Facebook page: https://pl-pl.facebook.com/eisips/ Dr. Barbara Kratiuk and Dr. Aleksandra Jaskólska teach at Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, University of Warsaw, Poland.

By Prof. Bharat H Desai The right to live healthy life with basic human dignity is sine qua non for measuring the real wealth of nations. Hence, persistence of poverty anywhere in any form is a violation of the fundamental human rights The 30th anniversary of the International Day for the Eradication of Poverty was overserved on October 17 amidst predictions of deepening of global poverty, hunger, malnourishment and misery. The day was designated in 1992 by the UN General Assembly (resolution 47/196). The day also witnessed release of the Multidimensional Poverty Index (2022). It has estimated that 1.2 billion people in 111 developing countries live in acute multidimensional poverty. The largest number of poor people live in Sub-Saharan Africa (579 million) and South Asia (385 million). Out of this, 84 per cent live in the rural areas. It is double the number of people who are considered poor on the basis of criteria of living on less than $1.90 per day. Notwithstanding the pall of gloom, there are positive indications in the MPI. In a remarkable poverty alleviation initiative, in a span of 15 years, India alone has lifted some 415 million people out of multidimensional poverty. It comprises 140 million since 2015/2016. It vouches for working of a lot of targeted poverty alleviation schemes. India matters in the global poverty eradication drive, since it still has a sizeable number of poor people. Out of nearly 229 million poor, nearly 90 percent (205 million) live in rural areas. Basic household requirements such as electricity, clean cooking fuel, nutrition, sanitation and housing haunt most of the people falling under the poverty line. Moreover, the armed conflicts perennially afflicting many countries around the world have taken pushed millions into poverty and misery. The key lies in defining the magical threshold of poverty. Poverty as a Violation of Human Rights The right to live healthy life with basic human dignity is sine qua non for measuring the real wealth of nations. Hence, persistence of poverty anywhere in any form is a violation of the fundamental human rights. In 2021 alone, the Covid-19 pandemic pushed between 143 and 163 million people into poverty. Ominously, out of these projected new poor, almost half are in South Asia. Poverty quotient draws upon indicators of deprivation that include nutritious food, cooking fuel, sanitation and housing. Extremely poor do not have access to productive resources, basic health, education, social protection services and basic infrastructure. They remain highly susceptible to the impacts of natural disasters and the adverse effects of climate change. In this vicious spiral, it is the rural women and girls who remain more vulnerable and suffer chronic hunger, malnutrition and sexual violence. The 2022 projections indicate that between 75 million and 95 million people have been added to 659 million people who lived in extreme poverty in 2018. The Ukraine conflict since early 2022 has compounded the global poverty challenge. On September 8, 2022 UNDP released its annual dataset, 2022 Human Development Report. It shows that 2020-2022 pandemic has proved devastating for billions of people. For the first time, the human development has declined for 9 out of 10 countries. In this wake, the 2022 World Hunger Index has added to the grim scenario by confirming that “progress in tackling hunger has largely halted". Similarly, the 2022 State of Food Security and Nutrition showed that the number of undernourished people worldwide, as an indicator of chronic hunger, has shot up to 828 million. It has taken its toll in every part of the world. In an ominous sign, out of the world population of 7.9 billion (2022), a multi-agency report (FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO) has showed that nearly “2.37 billion people did not have access to adequate food”. Global Response As a primary forum to address the concerns of deprived peoples and nations, the UN General Assembly has consistently employed its principal tool – resolutions – during 2021 (76/219), 2020 (75/232), 2019 (74/237) and 2018 (73/244). As a continuation, on October 13, a draft resolution for 2022, mooted by Group of 77 and China, has been circulated to the UN member states. Though frowned upon by the skeptics, these resolutions reflect the common concerns of humankind. On December 20, 2017 (72/233), the UNGA considered the theme of the Third United Nations Decade for the Eradication of Poverty (2018–2027) for accelerating global actions for a poverty-free world. There are several entities of the UN system such as Food and Agriculture Organization, International Fund for Agricultural Development, the International Labor Organization, United Nations Development Program and World Food Program that play vital roles in the global efforts to reduce poverty, hunger, food insecurity and malnutrition. The UNSG’s 2021 report on the Decade of Action on Nutrition (2016–2025), highlighted the underlying drivers of all forms of malnutrition. It called upon the states to act with urgency for elimination of “all forms of malnutrition and achieving the SDGs by 2030”. The Geneva based Human Rights Council (HRC), a subsidiary organ of the UNGA, has five special rapporteurs with mandates that impinge upon different facets of global poverty. They collate the data from grassroots and provide vital signals to the HRC to address chronic poverty as a violation of human rights of “we, the peoples” in whose name the UN Charter was adopted on June 26, 1945. The UN Security Council (UNSC) has also contributed by its periodic conflict related food insecurity ministerial level open debate on May 19, 2022. In the wake of the spiraling global food shortage, high prices and hunger, the UNSG’s good offices did lead to the Black Sea Grain Deal on July 22, 2022 to allow shipments of wheat from both parties to the conflict (Russia and Ukraine). Thus, the UN does matter most in the eradication of global poverty. Taking International Law Seriously Notwithstanding the UNGA ordained soft normativity, reflected in resolutions adopted without vote, the persistence of chronic poverty calls for robust international legal instruments to provide a legal basis for the poverty eradication. Most of the former colonial countries still remain unaccountable for the past plundering of wealth of subjugated nations even as funds through bilateral aid and donor agencies remain a trickle and development banks work as mere banks. It presents an ideational challenge for the system of International Law and the conscientious scholars to devise ways and means to institutionalize a robust global cooperative framework for the eradication of poverty in the foreseeable future, if not by the end of current cycle of SDGs 2030 (GA resolution 70/1 of 25 Sept 2015). With 1.3 billion population and largest share of the global poor, India holds the key in leading from the front in making a decisive dent on the global poverty cauldron, as already shown in the recent years. #Poverty #HumanRights #InternationalLaw Professor Dr. Bharat H. Desai is Jawaharlal Nehru Chair and Professor of International Law at the Centre for International Legal Studies of SIS, JNU. He served as a member of the official Indian Delegations to various multilateral negotiations (2002-2008) as well as coordinated the Making SIS Visible initiative (2008-2013) and Inter-University Consortium: JNU; Jammu; Kashmir; Sikkim (2012-2020). He is the Editor-in-Chief of Environmental Policy and Law (IOS Press: Amsterdam).

By Prof. Srikanth Kondapalli Xi reiterated in work report to safeguard China’s dignity and core interests which has major implications for India Intense nationalist rhetoric, aggressive posturing both at the domestic and external front, muscle-flexing on Taiwan and disputed areas, new-found defiance of the existing order from which China benefited in the first place and grandiose plans for 'rejuvenation' amidst the spread of the pandemic as well as the Ukraine crisis characterised Xi Jinping’s address to the 20th Communist Party Congress (CCP) on 16 October at Beijing. Xi read out a nearly two-hour long speech giving a clarion call to the Chinese people to sacrifice further for the growth of the CCP and fulfil its aspirations and “founding mission”. He demanded that they serve the party and the state to observe the coming centennial of the armed forces in 2027 and of the People’s Republic in 2049. Xi also directed that the country should be prepared to “effectively respond to grave, intricate international developments and a series of immense risks and challenges." Many of these are of course, the making of China itself, including the origin and spread of the Covid-19 pandemic and regional assertiveness, even though recent Russian invasion of Ukraine triggered crises in food, fuel and fertilisers besides destruction and rise of a new order. Xi’s Nationalistic Agendas at the CCP Xi expressed his satisfaction to the turnaround in Hong Kong after the passing and implementation of the new security law last year that aimed at curbing any dissent. His tone on Taiwan, after the recent Chinese military exercises post US leader Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taipei, was reminiscent of his previous congress’s “six nos” and the CCP centennial speech of “breaking heads" last July. Xi called for “a strategic initiative for China's complete reunification” without ruling out the use of force. Interestingly, he suggests that “China's issues must be dealt with by Chinese people in the light of the Chinese context.” This is in contrast to the Taiwan President Dr Tsai Ing-wen’s position that issues of Taiwan should be decided by the Taiwanese. Xi painted a bleak external picture, a seizure mentality, by stating to “external attempts to blackmail, contain, blockade, and exert maximum pressure on China.” This is at a time when the recent official assessments suggest to a weakening of the US influence, China’s bourgeoning trade and investments with the US and other countries, despite the recent tariff wars and semiconductor ban. China's Crisis Resolution Plans Such an assessment also hides China’s assertive posturing towards Senkaku islands, South China Sea disputes and aggressiveness on the India-China border areas. Significantly, in an assertive stance, Xi suggested to evolving “mechanisms for countering foreign sanctions, interference, and long-arm jurisdiction will be strengthened.” Another significant takeaway from Xi’s speech is on building a “peaceful China” through the support of the country’s armed forces and the national security establishment. Xi’s most pungent attack was surprisingly on the domestic political factional rivals within the CCP. Many of them he demolished through the sectarian and relentless anti-corruption campaign unleashed on the 1.5 million "tigers," "flies," and "foxes," while protecting his flock. Xi Questions Internal Leadership Xi castigated some “vested interests” among CCP members as “sliding toward weak, hollow and watered-down Party leadership in practice”. Xi lambasted: “Despite repeated warnings, pointless formalities, bureaucratism, hedonism, and extravagance persisted in some localities and departments. Privilege-seeking mindsets and practices posed a serious problem, and some deeply shocking cases of corruption had been uncovered.” Xi also was scathing on those party members who are with “misguided patterns of thinking such as money worship, hedonism, egocentricity, and historical nihilism were common, and online discourse was rife with disorder.” In general, to reduce the influence of previous leaders like Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao, Xi has to denigrate them in order to prop his own “New Zhijiang Army” followers since his provincial sting nearly two decades ago. Xi alludes to a “people run the country” approach However, no clear institutionalised structures nor procedures were mentioned and thus remains rhetorical in nature. There were village level elections conducted for the past few years but the CCP organisational structure is above that level – at the county. Currently, the 20th CCP is being held by 2,296 deputies who were selected by 96 million cadres and not by 1.47 billion people. India-China Equations at the CCP While India was not mentioned in the work report presented by Xi, five broad areas could be noticed. Firstly, Xi's assertion that "momentous changes of a like not seen in a century are accelerating across the world" and that "significant shift is taking place in the international balance of power, presenting China with strategic opportunities" suggest to two possibilities for India – one of tentative collaboration with India and other states in multipolarity phenomena such as in the BRICS, SCO and other platforms, specifically in renminbi internationalisation process and opposing the US or the risk of intensifying conflict on the borders and in the Indian Ocean region. Secondly, related to the above, Xi reiterated in the work report to the PLA modernisation and to "safeguard China’s dignity and core interests”. This has major implications for India as with other countries. Xi's speech had an estimated mention of 73 times of security and protecting national security. This indicates to the unrelenting focus on use of force, threat of use of force and enhancing deterrence capabilities. Conventional deterrence capabilities were displayed by China in Galwan incident in June 2020 even though it promised previously to abide by the confidence-building measures and border stability. Galwan Border Conflict in the Spotlight Thirdly, the circulation of Galwan-related videos in mainstream media in China in addition to the attendance of Galwan skirmish participant Qi Fabao at the 20th CCP Congress, suggest that the embers of 2020 border conflict have not only not dowsed but kept alive for future contingencies. Fourthly, Xi's assertion that "dynamic zero Covid" policy of “people’s war” is correct in putting the “people and their lives above all else” meant that border controls will not be relaxed anytime soon- leading to hardships to thousands of Indian students and businesses. China could relax these selectively for its benefit but the situation is not conducive for expanding bilateral relations. Lastly, Xi's plan to focus on S&T and innovation could pose competition with the US, India and other countries. Already with the 'Made in China 2025', China had put the US on watch, while its 14th five year plan has ambitions of becoming superpower in eleven items such as trade, hi-tech manufacturing, digitalisation, cyberspace, sports, culture, and other fields. Ironically, much of these inputs were received from the US and other advanced countries. #China #CCP #Politics #XiJinping Originally published: The Quint, October 18, 2022. https://www.thequint.com/voices/opinion/from-taiwan-to-galwan-what-chinas-expansionist-policies-imply-for-the-world-galwan-clash-india-china-border-crisis#read-more#read-more Posted in SIS Blog with the authorization of the author. Prof. Srikanth Kondapalli is Dean of the School of International Studies and Professor in Chinese Studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University. Views are personal.

By Prof. Srikanth Kondapalli Such a lack of transparency is a Soviet legacy and is followed by Communist parties across the globe As the 20th Communist Party of China congress unfolds October 16-22, there’ll be global scrutiny of the official reports, political gestures and statements made there. Much of this process is shrouded in mystery and intrigue, but it has consequences for the world. For one, thousands of MNCs have invested trillions of dollars in China. ‘Risk analysis’ reports will be much sought-after, especially as President Xi Jinping pursues his “Made in China 2025” and “dual circulation” strategies to reduce economic and technological dependence on the West, while the US seeks to ‘decouple’ from the Chinese economy, too. In the main, three things will happen at the 20th CCP congress: the current General Secretary of the Communist Party – Xi Jinping – will read out his work report on achievements in the past five years and the “guiding principles” for the next five; changes to the CCP constitution, with speculation rife that Xi will be anointed ‘party chairman’; and the report of the party’s Central Committee’s discipline inspection commission (which maintains dossiers on 96 million party cadres!) will be presented. On October 23, the Chinese people and the world at large will be provided a glimpse of a parade of the seven most powerful party leaders selected to rule over the country’s 1.47 billion people for the next five years. The whole process of this selection of the Top 7 leaders of the apex Politburo Standing Committee (PSC) and 25 Politburo members is an opaque process. Last week’s 7th Plenary Session of the 19th CCP provided no discernible clues on who the new Top 7 of China will be. The formal process is that 2,296 ‘delegates’ to the congress, elected from the provinces, elect 200-odd members to the Central Committee of the CCP, who in turn elect the 25 Politburo and 7 PSC members. However, the actual process is informal selection -- with party elders and current leaders retreating to Beidaihe, a sea-side resort, and choosing the new leaders and signalling to the delegates whom they need to ‘elect’. Such a lack of transparency is a Soviet legacy and is followed by Communist parties across the globe. To divine Soviet political developments correctly, which was crucial during the Cold War, Western scholars developed the esoteric discipline of Kremlinology to read the tea leaves from extremely limited official handouts and information on possible changes in leadership and power. Reading Chinese developments (Pekinology) is equally difficult and inexact, as many seasoned reporters and scholars have found out after each CCP congress. It’s unlikely that we will fare any better this time. All the same, analysts will intensely scrutinise particular documents or the presence or absence of leaders in a meeting to figure out who is rising and who is falling in the CCP power structure. Frequently employed analytical tools in Pekinology include looking at factional leaders’ guanxi (political connections), relative appearances in official media or visits abroad or domestically, prominent “speech acts” of specific leaders, promotions to prominent party secretary positions in provinces or central government posts, or their removal and purges, or prominence given to or downgrading of significant “political lines” associated with leaders. This is a tedious task even for highly qualified professionals. China’s official media put out in public the profiles, educational qualifications, gender and professional status of the 2,296 delegates. The tone and tenor of this display is to let the world know how young and gender-conscious the Communist Party is. Xinhua, for instance, stated that the delegates are “highly qualified ideologically and politically…are competent in discussing State affairs…” It stated that the average age of the delegates is 52.2 years and that women constitute 26% and ethnic minorities 11% of the delegates. #China #CCP #Politics Originally published: Deccan Herald, October 16, 2022. https://www.deccanherald.com/opinion/let-s-do-some-pekinology-1153967.html Posted in SIS Blog with the authorization of the author. Prof. Srikanth Kondapalli is Dean of the School of International Studies and Professor in Chinese Studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University. Views are personal.

By Dr. Aprajita Kashyap In absence of a clear-cut win, the two candidates will face each other again in a runoff on 30 October 2022. The momentous General Elections in Brazil on 2 October 2022, will witness the contest for President, Vice President, Governors and members of Congress and state-level assemblies. In the first round of Presidential elections, a candidate must receive more than 50 percent of the vote in the first round to secure an outright victory. In absence of a clear-cut win, the two candidates will face each other again in a runoff on 30 October 2022. The number of voters is expected to be high since voting in Brazil is compulsory for people older than 18, but those who are 16 years old can choose to cast a ballot, too (the extent of voting in 2018 elections was nearly 80 percent). The main contenders are Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the two-term former president of the Partido dos Trabalhadores, the Workers’ Party (also represents a three-party federation dubbed as ‘Brazil of hope’), and Jair Messias Bolsonaro of the right-wing Partido Liberal, Liberal Party ( leads the alliance ‘for the good of Brazil’). High levels of polarisation and disinformation have contributed to the creation of extreme narratives, sporadic episodes of violence and expressions of apprehension of rigged elections. Sunday’s electoral process in Brazil, besides being the most ideologically polarised elections, is also being fought amongst certain economic constraints like high inflation, reeling poverty and gender inequality. Despite having a gender quota requiring women to constitute one-third of the total candidature in political parties, a lack of incentives and political will for engagement of women in politics, a high number of cases of violence against women in politics and structural imbalances, hinder the prospects for women’s participation. Issues in Electoral Campaigns The elections sometimes look evenly poised however the two contenders have differences in terms of being the favourites of certain constituencies. Lula has an advantage over Bolsonaro among the women voters as per the opinion polls, an indication of the abhorrence for the latter’s hyper-masculine bravado and ongoing attacks against female journalists. However, among Evangelical voters, it is an advantage for Bolsonaro, even though the Catholic voters still favour Lula. The poor Brazilians would perhaps vote for Lula in contrast to the conservative and wealthy Brazilians for whom Bolsonaro remains the preferred choice. Among the voters, those who prioritise social issues and economic well-being over other issues, are more likely to favour Lula. On the other hand, the voters who prioritise unfettered growth and centralisation will be seen voting for Bolsonaro. An additional interesting facet is that the young population and those in the middle age group under 45 are more likely to vote for Lula. Of the two candidates, Bolsonaro lays stress upon taking Brazil along the path of economic growth whereas Lula lays emphasis on sustainable development incorporating efforts towards the protection of the environment and indigenous people’s rights. By electing Lula, voters feel they would be ushering in the saviour of the Amazon and climate change, the architect of a new tax regime to allow high public spending and a planner who can end hunger and poverty in Brazil. Bolsonaro’s claims to winning elections are hinged upon limiting interstate taxes to reduce gasoline prices for consumers and approval of an increased social welfare program. His chances of getting elected are dimmed by the contentions of handling of COVID 19 pandemic, of feeding hate and rising poverty and inequality. Change in Brazilian gun laws and marked upturning of environmental protection laws through his clear support for agribusiness may visibly become the other deciding issues. Furthermore, there are apprehensions about taking the help of the military to filch the elections. The Internal and External Dynamics On the domestic front, the opinion polls show voting percentage in the range of 44-51 for Lula and 33-40 percent voters tilted towards electing Bolsonaro. A decisive factor that is likely to impact the outcome of the elections is his use of digital strategies to create fake news and false narratives. At the international level, the UN experts who are part of the Special Procedures of the Human Rights Council entrusted with the task of the independent fact-finding and monitoring mechanisms in elections, have taken cognisance of threats and intimidation to women, indigenous peoples, Afro-descendants and LGBT persons. They have been urging the political parties in Brazil to ensure peaceful general elections. Going by the voting on Chile’s Constitutional referendum experience, opinion polls are mere indicators and may get totally falsified. The inflection point that the Brazilian elections face, alongside concern about what may transpire on D-day, is whether the outcomes can be seen as an opportunity to reinforce its institutions, recalibrate its democracy to meet domestic and global challenges and better it’s ranking in the EIU’s Democratic Index. Civil society and the media must play key roles in ensuring a healthy democratic polity and must not bear the negative consequences of their expected role. It is critical for the military and members of any state institutions to refrain from any interference in the elections. The tradition of allowing international electoral observation missions viz., the Organization of American States, Mercosur’s Parliament, and the Inter-American Union of Electoral Organizations, would ensure speedy verdicts on the freedom and fairness of the electoral process. #BrazilianElections2022 #Politics Originally published: Financial Express, October 02, 2022 https://www.financialexpress.com/world-news/brazilian-elections-2022-a-political-inflection-point/2698215/ Posted here with the authorization of the author. Dr. Aprajita Kashyap is Faculty in Latin American Studies Programme, CCUS&LAS, SIS, JNU, New Delhi.

By Sanchita Borah Costa Rica tried involving OAS in deciding Nicaragua’s encroachment in disputed territory in 2010, when the issue of Isla Calero island emerged. At the international level, ICJ was used as a mediator in this conflict resolution going by its mandate and competence in resolving many cases over disputes regarding territorial and maritime claims. The issue was resolved by ICJ in 2018. In today’s world, the water crisis is the most significant environmental issue and an emerging security challenge. As referred to this, transboundary water resources pose a significant challenge to security between nations. Conflicts around these resources worldwide emanate from numerous facets including population explosion, rapid industrialization, urbanization, hydrological, water scarcity, and environmental deterioration. These accelerate into water scarcity, steering a steady increase in international disputes over transboundary water resources. Water disputes have thus become a complex issue and an unanticipated threat to the international world order. Dispute resolution and agreement for transboundary water resources have confronted multiple challenges. One of the transboundary water disputes that have been aggravating in recent years is the India-China dispute over the River Brahmaputra. The present article aims to delve into a comparative analysis of the India-China case with Costa Rica’s transboundary water dispute with Nicaragua over the San Juan River and the way of its resolution. Both India and Costa Rica’s nature in maintaining a balance in the world order through peaceful means is noteworthy. However, India is facing difficulties in reaching any mutually agreed solutions with China in the Brahmaputra case. Costa Rica’s example can be used as a lesson that resolved the San Juan River dispute with Nicaragua recently manifesting as a torch-bearer nation for others engulfed in water disputes. The Mighty Brahmaputra: Race for Water Security The Brahmaputra River/Yarlung Tsangpo is the provenance of existence for more than 130 million people in China, India, and Bangladesh. However, this has turned out to be a source of contention between the two Asian giants, India and China. There are multiple causes of the Brahmaputra river dispute. Historically, the relationship between India and China has not been optimistic. The 1962 Sino-Indian War, the Chola War of 1967, and the Sino-Indian skirmishes in the year 1987 portray the nations’ growing mistrust of each other. The expansionist policy of China is a major concern for India’s Arunachal Pradesh over which China lays its claim. Moreover, the defamatory attacks on India by China’s controlled media and China-Pakistan’s close ties create a sense of leery for India. Under this scenario, a categorized and systematic hydro-power project and water diversion schemes in the Yarlung Tsangpo, along with an increasing threat to water security fosters a profound consequence in the foreign policies of both nations. Many analysts have claimed that China has been using the Yarlung Tsangpo as a political weapon. The hydroelectric dams and diversion projects have raised an impending water security threat for India. The construction of dams in the Yarlung Tsangpo river by China would limit the water flow downstream posing environmental hazards for the people of North-East India and also Bangladesh which largely depend on water for agriculture. Moreover, a major water diversion project has been proposed by China in the Yarlung Tsangpo/Brahmaputra river at the Great Bend. Another assumption suggests that the construction of a dam in the bend near Arunachal Pradesh would help China assert its claim over the state. Thus, India has been under perennial distress constituted by China. Until recent times, the aim of China in the Himalayan region was distinctly engaged in sustaining a balanced power relation with India and a defensive approach towards Tibet. However, China has initiated crucial plans like the West-East Electricity Transfer projects (Xi Dian Dong Song) and the Western China Development Strategy (Xibu Da Kaifi). The People’s Republic of China (PRC) is positioning Tibet as the trading pivot in the Himalayan Region. ‘Opening up of the West’s campaign of China for extracting natural resources from Tibet would help boost the economic motor of eastern China and also vitalize ‘backward’ Tibet forward. Nicaragua-Costa Rica’s San Juan River Dispute The border between the two Central American Countries namely Nicaragua and Costa Rica has been demarcated by the River San Juan. The Cañas Jerez Treaty of 1858 set the San Juan River as the permanent border between the two nations. However, the treaty became the point of contention, as the sovereign power of the river was vested upon Nicaragua and at the same time, Costa Rica was given the right to navigation for commercial purposes. The dispute is largely ascribed to nationalism lacking the analysis of historical, economic, social, and political factors involved. Nicaragua’s economic interest is portrayed since independence when it was keen on constructing a canal route to link the Atlantic and the Pacific Oceans. The President of Nicaragua, Daniel Ortega has used the sovereignty dispute over the river San Juan and the claim for dominion over Isla Calero Island to foster nationalistic sentiments among the people. The northern frontier of Costa Rica has a scanty population, despite the fact of its difficult terrain and isolated location, Nicaraguan immigrants got easy access to Costa Rica through these frontiers to escape the instability of the state since the Nicaraguan Revolution in the 1970s. This is a social factor aggravating the dispute between the two nations. The dispute has been carefully nuanced, and the scholars claimed that it is between the governments rather than the people of the nations. Mitigating San Juan Dispute: Lessons from Costa Rica? A historic confrontation changed to cooperation in 2002 when at the regional level, the Central American Integration System (SICA) decided to take concrete steps toward resolving the dispute between Nicaragua-Costa Rica. However, the Nicaraguan President routinely skipped the SICA meeting hosted by Costa Rica due to the ongoing dispute over the San Juan River, and thus it lacked concretization. In 2007, the meeting between President Daniel Ortega of Nicaragua and President Oscar Arias of Costa Rica reopened bilateral communication on the issues of migration and border disagreements which symbolized an attempt to restore peace. 8th Binational Commission of Costa Rica and Nicaragua which was a special commission of inquiry was to be held in November 2010, could not be convened because Foreign Relations Minister José Enrique Castillo Barrantes of Costa Rica said that unless the Nicaraguan military forces leave the Isla Calero island there could be no dialogue. Many bilateral meetings were initiated by both countries but lacked concretization. The role of the Organization of American States (OAS) at the hemispheric level as a mediator is limited because looking at the overarching influence of the US within it, Nicaragua was keener to solve the San Juan River dispute by referring it to the International Court of Justice (ICJ). However, Costa Rica tried involving OAS in deciding Nicaragua’s encroachment in disputed territory in 2010, when the issue of Isla Calero island emerged. At the international level, ICJ was used as a mediator in this conflict resolution going by its mandate and competence in resolving many cases over disputes regarding territorial and maritime claims. The issue was resolved by ICJ in 2018. After scrutinizing the above, it can be seen that Costa Rica was more of a pacifier and a stabilizing mechanism in the dispute. There are substantial reasons which portray the nation being a stabilizer. First, Costa Rica abolished its military in 1949, which led the country in following principles of civility in its political life and maintaining stable foreign relations with its neighbors and the world. Second, Costa Rica and Nicaragua initiated seven years of diplomatic discussion to settle the issue. Third, when diplomatic meetings and the discussion remained unfruitful, Costa Rica approached the OAS and ultimately filed a case against Nicaragua in the ICJ in 2005. Fourth, Costa Rica accepted the ICJ’s rulings in 2009, 2015, and 2018. In the international scenario, India also can be portrayed as a pacifier, as it champions the policy of constructive engagement despite serious provocations. India believes that violent retaliation and encounters further embroil the situation. Moreover, the nation adheres to noble and benign policies of non-interference in the internal affairs of other countries. In a globalized world order, foreign policy affairs and foreign economic policy are intricately related. The construction of an external environment conducive to inclusive growth in the country is one of the constitutive elements of India’s foreign policy. Utilization of every diplomatic skill and political leverage to impress upon the partners in the region towards a joint exploration of natural resources culminates in a win-win situation. Moreover, since 1950, India has skillfully tackled its strategy of non-prescriptive development assistance as soft power. This shows how India and Costa Rica characterized by similar foreign policy affairs can lead toward resolving issues nurturing serendipity. Costa Rica is a small Central American country, with few natural resources, and relatively little strategic value has been admired by the international community because of its strategies of peace in handling human rights, human security, and foreign policy issues. Thus, India and countries of the world like Costa Rica facing transboundary water disputes can overcome the stagnancy with their constitutive elements and confidence-building measures toward a collaborative expedition of natural and transboundary resources. #India #CostaRica #OrganizationOfAmericanStates #WaterResources #Brahmaputra Originally published: Financial Express, October 03, 2022 https://www.financialexpress.com/defence/the-brahmaputra-river-as-a-transboundary-water-resource-lessons-from-costa-rica/2698751/?utm_source=defence_landing_page&utm_medium=article_listing_widget&utm_campaign=Tags Posted here with the authorization of the author. Sanchita Borah is a PhD Research Scholar at the Centre for Canadian, US & Latin American Studies, School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi.

By Pratik Mall The ongoing Ukraine crisis has fueled the raging and perennial debate about the relevance of the UN The Russia-Ukraine crisis, popularly dubbed the biggest ground war in Europe since World War II, has entered its eighth month without showing signs of ceasing. The cataclysmic turmoil has resulted in one of the fastest growing refugee crisis in Europe and the skyrocketing oil and gas prices, causing economic crises and energy security dilemmas around the globe. The notion of perpetual peace at the heart of the foundations of the United Nations formed with the principal objective of saving the succeeding generations from the scourge of war has brought to fore the perennial questions of the role of the United Nations and its efficacy vis-a-vis its role in the crises as mentioned above. Flagrant Violations of the UN Charter When confronted with similar questions, Dag Hammarskjold, second Secretary General of the United Nations, had once vivaciously remarked that the principle of the UN Charter continues to be relevant as long as the member states uphold these principles on the ground. The charter's principles remain, but we, the member states, fail these principles. The Ukraine standoff has once again tarnished the so-called sacrosanct nature of Art. 2(4) of the UN charter, which commits organizations and the member state to refrain in their international affairs from threatening or using force against any state's territorial integrity or political independence. The blatant violation also includes Article 2 (3) of the UN Charter articulating the settlement of disputes by peaceful means considered as part of the Jus Cogen, along with article 2 (4), from which no derogation is permitted. The only two notable exceptions to Article 2 (4) are Article 51, which entails the self-defence clause sanctioning the use of force, and Article 107, about using force against ex-enemy states. Vladamir Putin's legal justification for Russia's action seems untenable under the rubric of international law. The invocation of Article 51 by Russia is a vivid example of the perversion of international law to justify armed action in a very similar fashion as the west in general and the United States, in particular, has done in the recent past, be it in the case of Kosovo bombing of 1999 or Iraq invasion of 2003. Putin's recognition of the two breakaway factions of Donetsk and Luhansk as sovereign states and his claim that the genocide being committed in these regions by Ukraine's government warranted Russia's armed intervention on humanitarian grounds is not backed by abundant and compelling evidence. The right to collective self-defence exists only for states under international law. Merely recognition by Russia of these two regions does not bestow statehood upon them. On the face of it, Putin's invocation of Article 51 on the grounds of self-defence holds some merit, given imminent threats posed to Russia by NATO inching further closer and prospects of Ukraine joining it. However, this in itself does not constitute sufficient ground for the armed attack as an imminent threat is not a recognized ground under international law. Russia's insistence on the notions of remedial secession to recognize the secession of Donetsk and Luhansk does not hold water. The idea of remedial secession, as per Russian submission to ICJ in the Kosovo case, is limited to genuinely extreme circumstances involving an outright armed attack by the parent state threatening the very existence of the people in question. Putin's justification for the use of force on the ground that Ukraine was committing genocide against Russians in Donetsk and Luhansk also sounds implausible, as even if there was a genocide, neither the Genocide Convention of 1948 nor the UN Charter gives member states the license to use force to remedy acts of genocide or human rights abuses. Is the UN moribund? The ongoing Ukraine crisis has fueled the raging and perennial debate about the relevance of the UN. Article 1 of the UN charter mentions maintaining international peace and security as one of the primary purposes and, to that end, entrusts the UN as the torchbearer of the idea of multilateralism. Questions about the Ukraine crisis signaling the death knell of multilateralism and the dawn of a new global order have become grappling issues. Under the UN Charter, maintaining international peace and security is considered an exclusive mandate of the Security Council, which is equipped to be effective but has failed on multiple occasions, including the current one. The crisis has also brought to light Article 27, Paragraph 3, a provision that has become a dead letter. This clause is not only a source of the veto power of permanent members but also imposes a limitation on this through what has come to be known as the principle of obligatory abstentions. It spells out that a party to the dispute, again a vague term, should abstain from voting in decisions under Chapter VI and Paragraph 3 of Article 52. Thus, it disallows a member to simultaneously be a party, judge and jury. However, in reality, both permanent and non-permanent members have, for all practical purposes, consigned this provision to the dustbins of history, including in the current Russia-Ukraine crisis. The International Court of Justice, the principal judicial organ of the United Nations, also suffers from a glaring inefficacy in the current crisis. While, on the one hand, the ICJ certainly has a limited jurisdictional reach under the Genocide Convention of 1948, to which both Russia and Ukraine are parties, on the other hand, it lacks an effective enforcement mechanism. In addition, the court's role is severely limited because a great power like Russia, with a super sovereign status, could conveniently ignore its judgement. UN Still Matters Notwithstanding the above scathing criticism of the UN, a body like the UN is not only indispensable, but the fact that it has become irrelevant highlights the parochial and ignorant analyses of this centerpiece of global governance. Even in the gloomiest situations, the UN was not entirely missing from action. The Black Sea Grain Agreement is a classic example of its eternal relevance for the greater good of humanity. The UN brokered the black sea grain initiative through the good offices of UNSG Antonio Guterres, who was present at the deal signing. Signed in Istanbul between Turkey, Ukraine, the Russian Federation and the UN in July 2022, the agreement since then has been a landmark success in bringing down the prices of essentials such as food grains, cereals and oil and has helped to stabilize the global food markets. The agreement has drawn attention to chapter VI of the UN Charter pertaining to the Pacific Settlement Of Disputes (Articles 33-38). Described by UNSG as a beacon of hope, a beacon of possibility and a beacon of relief, it bears a unique testimony to the fact that if talks are given a chance, they can yield the most fruitful outcomes regardless of the hostilities. Thus, it would be befitting to say that the UN has not become irrelevant; instead, the obligation is on us to make it work better. #Ukraine #Russia #UN #NATO #InternationalLaw Pratik Mall is a Postgraduate student of Politics With a Specialization In International Studies at the School Of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi. His area of interest includes analysis of India's Foreign Policy, particularly concerning its immediate neighbourhood in South Asia and extended neighbourhoods of Central Asia and Southeast Asia and the impact of great power rivalry in shaping India's foreign policy.

By Prof. Gulshan Sachdeva With hardened western stance, India’s room for maneuvering is going to be much more limited in the new phase of the Ukraine conflict. In the meanwhile, India-Russia energy trade has become stronger. While signing the accord to annex four Ukrainian regions namely Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia, the Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that people living in these regions “have become our citizens, forever”. He further asserted that “we will defend our land with all the forces and resources we have”. To a large extent, it seems this is Russia’s response to its recent military setback at Kharkiv. The European Union has rejected what it calls ‘illegal’ referenda and annexation and said that it will “continue to provide strong economic, military, social and financial support to Ukraine”. Similarly, while condemning Russia’s attempts, the United States has announced that it “will continue to support Ukraine’s efforts to regain control of its territory by strengthening its hand militarily and diplomatically”. These new developments complicate an already difficult situation. It also indicates further escalation in the conflict. Already the nuclear issue has entered into the rhetoric. With the damage to Nord Stream pipelines, the conflict has also entered a new phase of hybrid war threatening European energy infrastructure. As the war enters into a new phase, India will again have to weigh its options. While Prime Minister Narendra Modi sharpened New Delhi’s response emphasizing that this is ‘not an era of war’, India’s fundamental position on Russia’s role and conflict has not changed much. This was clearly evident through another abstention at the recent UNSC vote on Ukraine. At the open UN briefing on Nord stream pipeline sabotage, India also called for an “independent and objective investigation” of the incident. At the UNSC vote, India was “deeply disturbed by the turn events in Ukraine” not clearly mentioning referendum and annexation. This could also mean that India is also disturbed by huge western military support to Ukraine, which has reduced chances of a political settlement. Indian dependence on Russian military hardware has always been mentioned as one of the factors responsible for New Delhi’s reluctance to condemn Moscow for its actions in Ukraine. In the meanwhile, energy trade has also become stronger. Thanks to discounted oil purchases in the last few months. India-Russia bilateral trade between April and July 2022 was about $14 billion. This is more than India’s trade with countries such as Singapore, Australia, Germany, Japan or Netherlands during this period. As a result, Russia has emerged as the seventh largest trading partner of India during this period. Last year, Russia was India’s twenty-fifth trading partner. Now to boost Indian exports to Russia, the State Bank of India has also agreed to facilitate Rupee trade transactions to Russia. Although this is a dynamic situation with increasing sanctions against Moscow, Russia may emerge as India’s top ten trading partners in the current financial year. Strategic and defense ties with Russia were always strong. It was the commercial pillar which both countries were not able to revitalize. Despite sanctions, Russia will continue to be a major energy producer and exporter. Now the European Union and most of its Member States have clearly decided to diversify their energy imports away from Russia. Moscow clearly needs new energy markets for its exports, mainly in Asia. Apart from China, India could emerge as another major buyer of Russian energy in the coming years. Because of trusted strategic partnership, there is a clear potential of working out bilateral payment mechanisms and required infrastructure linkages in the coming years. With stronger partnership with India, Russia can also balance its dependence on China. This is not a conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Major western powers and NATO are clearly involved in a major way. Ukraine has no chance of getting membership of the European Union and NATO in the coming years. Still the West will continue to support Kiev militarily and financially so long as it is able to fight. So basically, this is a war between major economic and military players. Both sides also have seats in the UNSC. The conflict has also revitalized NATO as well as the Trans-Atlantic alliance. Now the West is looking for a ‘strategic defeat’ of Russia and a possible regime change in Moscow. In these circumstances, ‘victory’ or compromise for any one side is not going to be easy. India has close strategic ties with both sides and good relations with Ukraine. Still, due to the current nature of the conflict, room for playing a mediatory role for New Delhi is limited. So far, India has managed well in taking a ‘neutral stance’ and protecting its interests. As the conflict is entering another phase, the room for maneuvering is going to be much more limited due to a hardened western stance. #India #Russia #Ukraine Originally published: Economic Times, October 03, 2022 https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/view-more-complications-for-india-in-new-phase-of-ukraine-conflict/articleshow/94625426.cms Posted here with the authorization of the author. Gulshan Sachdeva is Professor at the Centre for European Studies and Coordinator, Jean Monnet Centre of Excellence, Jawaharlal Nehru University