Search

By Srijan Sharma As India celebrates the 24th Vijay Diwas of winning the Kargil War in 1999, the nuclear question between two arch rivals refreshed once again how an atomic scenario could have rolled out during war when both nations reportedly weighed the nuclear option. In 1999 Pakistan moved ballistic missiles towards the border. The White House officials and security experts in 2000 claimed that India, too, was preparing five nuclear-tipped ballistic missiles. The nuclear escalations between the two nations had never come to such close brink. Still, ever since 1999-2001, Pakistan's show-offing and warmongering about nuclear warfare have always been in the headlines. In 2019, the nuclear question again resurfaced after India carried out Balakot Air strikes. A few days back, Pakistan's strategic planners hinted towards a shift in Pakistan's nuclear doctrine, which seemed to be quite radical to some extent. Pakistan's Nuclear Expert and Advisor to National Command Authority- Lt General(R) Khalid Kidwai, on the 25th Anniversary of Pakistan's Nuclear Tests, sent ripples across the strategic and security community from West to Asia when he revisited Pakistan's Nuclear strategy. Kidwai, in his speech, touched on two important things- first, he referred to" Full Spectrum Deterrence", and second, he said, "Zero Meters To 2,750 kilometres". Both statements suggest a makeover attempt at horizontal and vertical levels in Pakistan's nuclear doctrine. Full Spectrum Deterrence and Zero Meters? At the horizontal level, Full Spectrum Deterrence(FSD) means expanding the nuclear triad at tactical and strategic levels from land, air and sea and making it more advanced with technology. Pakistan intends to increase its battlefield and strategic strike capabilities at vertical levels- tactical nuclear weapons(TNWs) to strategic nuclear weapons. If we specifically emphasize "zero meters", it is suggestive of advancing nuclear weapons used on the battlefields during the war. Though the zero meters emphasis may not be so new, the catch in Kidwai's speech was FSD, which could shake South Asia's regional security stability. Pakistan's first nuclear test at Chagai Hills in Balochistan province with Chinese support, and ever since China has been active in building Pakistan's nuclear arsenal. An unclassified document from the National Security Archive of the US shows that for 15 years, Beijing rebuffed US queries on Chinese aid to Pakistan's Nuclear programme. The record further indicates that in 1983 that China was assisting with the production of fissile materials and even continues to do so with clandestine cooperation. If Pakistan embarks on the FSD approach, this would accelerate this covert cooperation and strengthen Pakistan's overall nuclear deterrence capabilities throughout the spectrum- Land, Air and Sea. A month back China-Pak cooperation over maritime affairs gained traction when China delivered modern naval frigates to Pakistan. It won't be incorrect to read that if China-Pak cooperation is accelerating beyond geoeconomics, this Full spectrum deterrence for Pakistan becomes a visible reality. How New Delhi Reads Pakistan's Nuclear Shifting For New Delhi, except for China's beyond geoeconomics affairs with Pakistan, the sole "nuclear factor" in Indo-Pakistan relations is not much alarming but remains a strategic irritant for New Delhi if war happens between them. At the doctrinal level, India's credible minimum deterrence talks about punitive action in terms of massive retaliation if it gets attacked with nuclear weapons. Pakistan's doctrine talks about first strike capability of massive retaliation on a threshold basis with an India-centric approach. Both the doctrines have one difference- India is exercising caution and responsibility for nukes and ensuring retaliation only if "attacked". In contrast, Pakistan has open options to launch a nuclear attack if it feels "threatened" by India at any threshold level- economic, political and military. New Delhi's reading from this possible nuclear shifting episode is that rising stockpiling would not be that much of a concern, as said above, but using Chinese ticket to develop technologically advance Tactical Nuclear Weapons(TNWs), which can range from SRBMs to Automatic Mutation Devices(AMD) is a cause of concern, this gets more traction if it combines with various verticals of Pakistan firepower, especially with Pakistan's Navy and therefore this "Zero meters" and "Full Spectrum Deterrence" as strategic measure or policy for Pakistan's nuclear domain may strengthen not only Pakistan's nuclear blackmailing game but also strengthen the deterrence against India in case of tight conflict, putting the South Asian region on a bigger set of matchbox. Musharraf's Nuclear Plans Kargil War does provide some insights into the nuclear factor. As said above, both nations were on the verge of using nuclear weapons. The deterrence capability is one defining line that can bring a difference in nuclear warfare, whether it is offsetting one nuclear strike or putting nuclear pressure. As Parvez Musharaff defines the nuclear game- ." If we would attack India with one atomic bomb, then the neighbouring country could finish us by attacking with 20 bombs. Then the only solution is that we should first attack them with 50 atom bombs so that they cannot hit us with 20 bombs" such statements shaping Pakistan's nuclear doctrine with massive retaliation based on threat puts India in a difficult position in managing the conflict escalation ladder- a situation in 2001 after Parliament attacks when both nations came to a tight standoff and therefore, to hitting Pakistan with limited yet powerful strike is the only option, surgical strikes and air strikes in the past have done so. However, a probable shift in Pakistan's nuclear doctrine, if succeeded, then it may complicate India's options in maintaining the threshold while carrying out effective strikes or, for that matter, pre-emptive strikes. International pressure, sanctions, and India's growing counter-ballistic capabilities may, to some extent, help to manage the nuclear escalation ladder. But, any nuclear scenario between both nations will severely disturb the South Asian power game and lead to seeking a nuclear umbrella and triggering an arms race in the region; therefore, full spectrum status for Pakistan on any day will add more fuel to the nuclear fire. Srijan Sharma is a national security analyst specializing in Intelligence and security analysis and working as a Research Assitant in India's premier and prestigious national security and foreign policy think tank United Service Institution of India(USI). He has extensively written on matters of security and strategic affairs for various institutions, journals, newspapers (Telegraph) and The Organiser. He has also served as Defence Editor for a journal.

By Prof. Bharat H. Desai Csaba Kőrösi, the President of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) has invited (program; letter of July 17, 2023) the Heads of State and Government (HoS&G) for the 2023 High-level political forum on sustainable development under the auspices of the UNGA’s 2023 SDG Summit (September 18-19, 2023). It holds significance as a mid-point (2015-2030) of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) with a mission for: Transforming Our World. It was adopted vide UNGA resolution 70/1 of September 25, 2015. This global summit will also coincide with the commencement of the 78th session of the UNGA (2023-24). Thus, it seems, third week of September will witness all roads leading to the 78th UNGA in New York. The 2030 SDGs were adopted after marathon negotiations mandated by the 2012 Rio+20 Summit. This epoch-making instrument was built on the previous cycle of 2015 Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). It vividly underscored role of the UNGA, literally and metaphorically, as the conductor of a grand orchestra [Bharat H Desai (2004), Institutionalizing International Environmental Law, Transnational: New York, 144] to diagnose global problematique, propound an action plan and exhort the sovereign states to earnestly pursue it. As the plenary organ of the UN, the Assembly has sought to provide both legitimacy and direction to various inter-governmental processes for institutionalized international cooperation. In a way, the SDGs provide an audacity of hope as well as a way of atonement for the Commission of Sustainable Development (1992-2012) that faded away without a tear being shed. As a part of series of preparatory processes, on August 01, 2023, the UN Deputy Secretary-General, Amina Mohammed addressed a meeting on 2030 SDGs in Brazil. She stressed on the importance of the 2023 SDG Summit. “The Secretary-General is urging leaders to come to the UN General Assembly and the SDG Summit in September ready to contribute to a Rescue Plan for People and Planet. This means arriving with concrete national commitments and action plans to accelerate progress towards the SDGs,” she said. Lofty Goals for People and Planet The forthcoming 2023 SDG Summit shall have to undertake a serious review of prospects for realizing the Goals in the next seven years (2023-30). The SDGs were to be realized in an incremental and persuasive way in consonance with political convenience of the UN member states. The Goals necessitated a major rejiig of the global order, economy, societal structures, wasteful consumption patterns, unsustainable lifestyles and pervasive mindsets. At the SDG inauguration in 2015 (70th UNGA), terming the Agenda 2030 as “lofty”, the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi observed: “Sustainable development of one-sixth of humanity (India) will be of great consequence to the world and our beautiful planet”. However, the era of planetary crisis calls for a decisive course correction as the galloping human population [projected to reach 9.8 billion (2050) and 11.2 billion (2100)] will require natural resources equivalent of three planets to sustain current profligate lifestyles. In the face of this challenge, the SDGs seem to be utopian goals for people, planet, prosperity, peace and partnership. In a way, the SDGs underscore tragedy of the unfettered human quest for material progress. The usage of prefix sustainable provides value to the cherished targets, seeks to circumscribe inherent greed for development and fine tune relevance of sustainability in a rapidly changing world. The SDGs include challenges as diverse as inequality in living standards, infrastructure, water & sanitation, women empowerment, access to modern energy, quality education, healthy lives, poverty and hunger. Its preamble makes an emphatic assertion that “eradicating poverty in all its forms and dimensions, including extreme poverty, is the greatest global challenge and an indispensable requirement for sustainable development”. Does the audacious claim of not leaving anyone behind in that journey conjure up scenario of chasing a mirage in a world that is so unjust, inequitable and full of contradictions? As a result, the Goals inherently face an uphill task of matching grim reality with high expectations. Since 2000, two back-to-back global processes for MDGs (2000-2015) and SDGs (2015-2030) do underscore that there are Limits to Growth on this beleaguered planet. There is a legal quibbling over SDGs’ normative value. Still the SDGs provide a beacon of hope as sustainability agenda has risen like the proverbial Sphinx in the aftermath of the 1992 Rio and the 2012 Rio+20 Summits. SDGs and the Global Disorder As the HoS&G are set to take stock at the 2023 SDG Summit, the global order is in a perilous state. Apart from the havoc brought about by the Covid-19 pandemic (2020-2022), there are grave crisis signals that all the 17 Goals (169 targets) aimed at “leaving no one behind” are likely to go haywire. In that eventuality, there is a danger of SDGs meeting the fate of MDGs. Therefore, it is pertinent – in the scholarly realm – to take cognizance of some of the main contributing factors, events, situations and contingencies that could upturn the SDG applecart. These include: (i) World Without Glaciers: There are warnings about shrinking of the world’s ‘water towers’ (glaciers) that would affect availability of fresh water resources around the world. The UNSG has warned (March 22, 2023) that “Human activity is driving our planet’s temperature to dangerous new heights…turning glaciers, into the canary in the coalmine…Losing these giants would be a giant problem for our world”. (ii) Global Humanitarian Crisis: According to the UN Global Humanitarian Overview 2023, one in 23 people on the planet Earth needs help in order to survive. A record 339 million people need humanitarian assistance. “Never before have humanitarians been called to respond to this level of need…in ever more dangerous environments,” said Jens Laerke, the spokesperson of the UNOCHA. The estimated funding requirement for the UN’s humanitarian projects has been pegged at 50 billion US dollars. (iii) Extreme Climatic Events: The WMO’s State of Global Climate 2022 shows the planetary scale changes on land, in the ocean and in the atmosphere caused by record levels of heat-trapping GHGs. The last eight years (2015 to 2022) were the warmest on record. In fact, the extreme climatic events alone drove an estimated 16 million people into food crises in 15 countries. It also caused an exacerbated violence against women and children. It is likely to reach 100 million in coming years. (iv) Exacerbated Global Poverty: The Multidimensional Poverty Index (Octo 17, 2022) provided estimate of 1.2 billion people in 111 developing countries living in acute multidimensional poverty. The largest number of poor people live in Sub-Saharan Africa (579 million) and South Asia (385 million). It shows that central thrust of the SDGs for “eradicating poverty in all its forms and dimensions” is in serious jeopardy. (v) Violence Against Women (VAW): UnWomen data shows an estimated 736 million women – almost one in three – have been subjected to physical and/or sexual violence at least once in their life. It does not include sexual harassment. In 2021, in the EU alone, the cost of sexual and gender-based violence (SGBV) was estimated around €366 billion a year, out of which VAW constitutes 79 per cent (€289 billion). (vi) Nuclear Weapons Have Grown: There are nine nuclear-armed states (the USA, Russia, the UK, France, China, India, Pakistan, Israel and the North Korea). Out of the total inventory of an estimated 12705 warheads at the start of 2022, about 9440 were in military stockpiles for potential use. (vii) People Living in Conflict Zones: In a May 19, 2022 address to the UNSC, the UNSG expressed concern for some 60 percent of the world’s undernourished people living in the conflict zones. An estimated one-fourth of global population (2 billion) live in conflicts raging across Africa, Middle East, Latin America, Asia and Eastern Europe. SDG Stimulus & Rescue Plan Notwithstanding above grim global disorderly scenario, in February 2023, the UNSG has launched SDG Stimulus to Deliver Agenda 2030. It graphically states that, as of November 2022, “37 out of 69 of the world’s poorest countries were either at high risk or already in debt distress, while one in four middle-income countries, which host the majority of the extreme poor, were at high risk of fiscal crisis. The burden of debt overhang is battering the economies of many developing countries”. It is estimated that by 2030, an additional 175 million, including 89 million women and girls, would fall into the debt induced distress. Thus, a “great finance divide” threatens the SDG targets since ability of poorer countries has been sharply curtailed to invest in recovery, climate action, and sustainable development. As a consequence, the Zero Draft of the Political Declaration (June 08, 2023), to be adopted at the High-level Political Forum on Sustainable Development (HLPF), under the auspices of the General Assembly’s mandated 2023 SDG Summit, does note the ominous ground reality that “only 12 per cent of the SDGs are on track and 30 per cent remain unchanged or below the 2015 baseline. The progress on most of the SDGs is either moving much too slowly or has regressed”. In view of the above, it remains to be seen as to how far the 2023 SDG Stimulus call for financing for sustainable development materializes – at least $500 billion per year (concessional and non-concessional finance). Will the SDGs become an instrument to propel inter-governmental behavioral change, provide a roadmap for our salvation and become a harbinger of a new world bereft of misery? This posits the biggest challenge of the 21st century. It calls for grappling with the mirage of human development on the bedrock of ‘sustainability’. In view of the gravity of the crisis, it would be advisable if the 2023 SDG Summit considers concrete alternative pathways to meet basic aspirations of people in the disadvantaged parts of the world. It would require a radical departure from the current passivity – akin to the popular saga wherein Nero fiddled while Rome burned. Audacity of Hope In the midst of a planetary level crisis (see Bharat H. Desai, SIS Blog Special (March 29, 2023) – I and II and Green Diplomacy (Feb. 14, 2023)], it is an audacity of hope that the New York assembling of the HoS&G (September 18-19, 2023) would pay heed to the emergency button pushed by the UNSG (Stockholm+50; June 02, 2022) to ensure that the SDGs do not remain “hot air” and we decisively “end our senseless and suicidal war against nature”. The 2023 SDG Summit outcome would also impinge upon the prospects for the 2024 Summit of the Future. Ironically, the Zero Draft of the Political Declaration (June 08, 2023) merely provides a vague promise that: “We will endeavour to reach the furthest behind first”. Therefore, it remains to be seen as to how far the HoS&G will be able to walk-the-talk on their commitment “to bold, ambitious, accelerated and transformative actions” to attain sustainable world for people and planet. It would require an audacity of hope against hope and a miracle to realize all the SDGs seven years from now. The countdown would be a litmus test for all the right-thinking peoples and their nations to stand by the planet Earth. #UNSG #UNSC#UNGA #MEA #PMOIndia #WEF #2023 #SDGSummit Dr. Bharat H. Desai is Professor of International Law, Jawaharlal Nehru Chair and Chairperson of the Centre for International Legal Studies (SIS, JNU), who served as a member of the Official Indian Delegations to various multilateral negotiations (2002-2008), coordinated the knowledge initiatives for Making SIS Visible (2008-2013) and the Inter-University Consortium: JNU; Jammu; Kashmir; Sikkim (2012-2020) as well as contributes as the Editor-in-Chief of Environmental Policy and Law (IOS Press: Amsterdam)

By Anshu Kumar Introduction A wide array of deals and conclusions between India and the US during Prime Minister Modi’s State visit to the US is a major juncture in international politics which reflects a burgeoning India-US relationship in the face of Chinese aggression. India’s comfortable handshake with the US lies primarily on the touchstone of material interests. The recent defence deals between both nations showcase that the US is an indispensable partner for India, given India’s precarious dependence on Russia for military equipment owing to the Ukraine crisis. The jet engine deal and India’s purchase of MQ-9B predatory drones would add much weight to its military power. For a country which has struggled to make ingenious jet engines for decades, overwhelming technology transfers in the jet engine deal would be a boon in the short term, in the face of the Chinese challenge, and provide a springboard for its indigenous military production. Dictates of Realism Chinese strategy under Xi Jinping has forced India to forgo the belief that India could ‘manage’ China using its informal, diplomatic, or economic channels. It is also interesting to see India realize that it needs partners to boost its capability against an overwhelming China in Asia. Classical realists like Kautilya have warned that change in the relative material capabilities would always cause security dilemmas among neighbours. Sun Tzu, too, believes that states would be cautious about their national power vis-à-vis their foes. World Wars have shown that despite great economic interdependence, even in terms of high vulnerability interdependence, and various diplomatic and collective action-oriented international groupings, such as the League of Nations, neighbors were always on the qui vive. Albeit great power disparity between India and China, it is grotesque that Indian bureaucratic and foreign policy brass used to believe that India alone can handle China. Rajesh Rajagopalan, a Realist thinker, argues that India’s pomposity about managing China on its own is precarious especially ‘when India has been wrong about China so consistently over the last decade, whether it was on the initial outreach to Beijing, or the informal dialogue after the Doklam confrontation.’ India is always having a hard time accepting that power parity matters. Despite so many chants of non-alignment and strategic autonomy, India has invariably preferred realpolitik decisions when it came to its material interests and tilted to one or another superpower during and after the Cold War period. Modi’s official visit to the US showed that once material interests are finely knitted, the rest subsets of relationships— defence cooperation, people-to-people connections, collaboration on climate change, critical minerals, or supply chains —follow suit. Overcoming the ‘Hesitations of History’ India’s dilemma to balance Russia and the US, compounded by historical imperatives for Russia and a sceptical attitude towards the US, has reified the thinking, in its foreign policy strategic culture, that alignment with one partner may mean being chained up in a formal alliance. Especially when a large portion of India’s military armaments and paraphernalia is dependent upon Russia for modernization and rejuvenation, it is no doubt that India would take a cautious and steady step towards tilting to the American side. But the Xi factor has created the importunateness in Indian strategic thinking that the US is an ‘indispensable’ partner in its attempt to defend the territory against the dragon. Amidst the chant to create a multipolar world, India often blunts the fact that unlike China, which has a centralized state-to-society relationship complex and can choose to spend a great share of its already gargantuan GDP on its military in the long or short term, it does not have the luxury of national means given a multiparty democracy and already constrained military budget, of which a large chunk goes on salaries and entitlements of military personnel. Due to the ‘confluence’ of Indo-US interests, India seems to have overcome the 'hesitations of history.' PM Modi remarked in his address to the joint parliamentary session of the US: ‘We were strangers in defence cooperation at the turn of the century. Now, the US has become one of our most important defence partners.’ Defence Deals— a Major Breakthrough In this post-industrial era, the base for military power is ‘formidably complex’ military technologies. Owing to strict technology control regimes and the complex nature of modern weaponry, the prospects for technology proliferation are bleak. It takes decades of high-end investments in Research & Development (R&D) to produce intricate and ingenious weapons and their components. Despite such colossal investments, only a handful of states could maneuver the engineering and metallurgy to make jet engines. Nevertheless, they have struggled to modernize and evolve their jet engines. Jet engines are one of the most intricate components to make. The ability to manufacture a jet engine which could achieve a very high rotation speed, withstanding increased temperatures up to 1200 degrees Celsius and every nuance of mechanical complexity and aerodynamic pressures, is a labyrinthine task to get done. The US is one of those handful of states which has engineered this impossible task. India, for now, many decades, has struggled to produce the indigenous Kaveri jet engine for its Light Combat Aircrafts (LCA). The American General Electric (GE) agreement with India’s Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) to build jet engines in India, with an unprecedented eighty per cent technology transfer, showcase India’s importance in America’s current strategic calculus. This is underlined by the fact that the US has invariably chanted the ‘technology denial regime’ mantra, and it never transferred technological dexterity to such an extent even with its allies. The proposed F414 jet engines would power India’s Mk2 jets. This engine would enable Indian the LCA to carry more payload and fuel, equip advanced sensors, and wingtip missiles and would ensure a higher thrust-to-weight ratio. A higher thrust-to-weight ratio ensures greater acceleration and thrust to skyrocket in the air. Moreover, India’s plan to purchase the MQ-9B drones from the US is a major boost to its reconnaissance, surveillance, and precision strike capabilities against China in the North and the Indian Ocean Region. With an operation time of more than 27 hours and the ability to achieve around 50,000 feet of altitude, this expensive deal gives India an edge over China. The drone suits India well in its grey zone warfare against China on several land and sea frontiers. The drone is a multipurpose remotely operated unmanned vehicle that can enable Indian forces to perform round-the-clock surveillance and strike missions against China on her Northern borders. Thus, India’s overwhelming dependence on Russian military equipment and armaments at a time when the latter is entangled in Ukraine has raised eyebrows in the Indian strategic camp, especially akin to the debate surrounding the qualities of Russian armaments against the modern Western weapon systems. India’s strategic and defense ties with her ‘natural’ ally are a need of the hour at a time when a fiery dragon is ready to burn the Indian citadel. #IndoUS #PMModi #US #India #USVisit Anshu Kumar is a Master’s student at the School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi. His research interest lie in India’s relations with great powers, the rise of China in the international system, strategic studies, and Indian foreign policy.

By Prof. Gulshan Sachdeva The resort to far-right issues and language by conservative parties has given legitimacy to far-right politics. Now across Europe, far-right parties are making their presence felt in parliaments and inching closer to power in such heavyweight countries like Germany and France Although results of the recently held elections in Spain were inconclusive, the conservative Popular Party became the single largest party with 136 seats in a 350-seat Parliament. Its leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo had hoped that he would be able to win an absolute majority with the help of far-right Vox. For weeks, Vox was projected as a kingmaker. In fact, Vox’s campaign was endorsed by leading European nationalist leaders including Italy's Giorgia Meloni, Hungary's Viktor Orban and Poland’s Mateusz Morawiecki. But its tally has actually declined to 33 from 52 from the last Parliament. Now Spain is facing weeks or months of political uncertainty, which is not unusual. The Far-Right’s Rise In the meanwhile, the broad narrative as described by BBC’s political editor Katya Adler recently is that “look around Europe right now - north, south, east and west – and you see far-right parties of different flavours – nostalgic nationalist, populist nationalist, ultra conservative with neo-fascist roots and more – enjoying a notable resurgence”. The top four European Union (EU) economies viz. Germany, France, Italy and Spain have all seen the rise of far-right forces. In current ratings, Alternative for Germany (AfD) is 3 percent above the Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats (SPD). Marine Le Pen received 41 percent votes in the final round of presidential elections in France last year. Italy is now led by the first far-right government since the second World War. Depending on how politics unfold in Spain, Vox might join a ruling coalition in the near future. Some of the political parties which are much in focus in Europe are Alternative for Germany (AfD), National Rally (France), Freedom Party (Austria), Brothers of Italy, Liga (Italy), Vox (Spain), People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (Netherlands), Finns Party (Finland), Greek Solution, Sweden Democrats, Freedom and Direct Democracy (Czech Republic), Denmark Democrats, New Flemish alliance (Belgium), Revival (Bulgaria), AUR (Romania) and the UK Independence Party. For years, Fidesz in Hungary and the Law and Justice Party in Poland have been running right wing governments. Post-War Europe’s Lingering Spectre Even when Nazism and Fascism was discredited after the War, right-wing political parties continued to exist in most European countries. But they were insignificant electorally. Still, a few like the Italian Social Movement (MSI) continued to play a significant role. The current Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s party Brothers of Italy has its roots in the MSI. Till the late 1970s, a few like the Union and French Fraternity (UFF) gained significant political results but disappeared soon. With their opposition to deepening European economic integration and secularisation of politics, the far-right increased its electoral support from the 1980s. Few of them, like the Austrian Freedom Party (FPÖ) also entered the national Parliament. In the last twenty years, however, many of them have started moving from the fringes to the mainstream political space. Starting with 9/11 terrorist attacks, issues related to refugee influx, Eurozone crisis, terrorist incidents and failure of multiculturalism have given them space to grow. The EU has been a neoliberal project. It is well designed to be served by conservative or socialist parties or coalitions having a tilt towards the centre. The processes of globalisation and European integration in the last thirty years created more interdependence within Europe and with the outside world. This coincided with the broader decline of the West. How Far-Right Gained Legitimacy When traditional political parties appeared to take moderate or muddled positions on immigration, terrorism, multiculturalism and national sovereignty, the right wing parties came out with clear policies opposing integration of nations, markets and people. When rightist parties started expanding, many centre-right conservative parties also started using far-right language on issues like immigration to protect their own voter base. This provided legitimacy to far-right politics. Although Nigel Farage of the UKIP was pushing for Brexit, it was Conservative David Cameron who actually promised the 2016 Brexit referendum. The European far-right engage in politics in the name of “people” against “the elites”. They are also constantly searching for “enemies”. They are also increasingly collaborating and using each other’s language. The Trump presidency in the United States gave them a boost. One dominant issue is of course immigration. But they are also sceptical of many international institutions including the EU. Interestingly, many of them also admire Russian President Vladimir Putin for what he is doing for his own nation. Today the far-right is present in many European parliaments. Starting with Austria in 1999, they are now part of many ruling coalitions. These coalitions have modified their behaviour. Instead of leaving, almost all of them now want to reform the EU from within. However, in a position of constitutional majority as is the case in Hungary, their opposition to key institutional values of liberal democracy such as independent judiciary, free press and pluralism have become clear. #Spain #Elections #Europe #FarRight Originally Published : Money Control, on 2nd August, 2023 https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/opinion/the-european-far-right-a-long-journey-from-the-fringes-to-the-mainstream-11078181.html Posted in SIS Blog with the authorisation of the Author. Prof. Dr. Gulshan Sachdeva is Professor, Centre for European Studies and Coordinator, Jean Monnet Centre of Excellence, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, India

By Dr. Vaishali Krishna There is a remarkable change in international affairs as several Nations have shown a range of reactions toward the US & Russia The Russia-Ukraine conflict has not only been influencing the current world order but has also been immensely affecting the global geopolitics. This is so because it has created ripples in geopolitics and has influenced the reorganisation of political factions and their adjustments. This conflict is now no more limited to Russia and Ukraine as it has encircled the entire globe so much so that a war crisis situation has emerged, especially after the pandemic. What is revealing is that it has not only enhanced Europe’s economic problems, but also forced it into the US decisions. As a result, the Asian states have taken the advantage to become a pointer to new emerging power equations. Yet, most of them are hedging their bets and are unwilling to take sides. Many of them have withstood US pressure and are importing cheaper Russian oil and carrying out trading in local currencies. But both Japan and South Korea, which perceive themselves as part of a global alliance of democratic forces and have close security ties with the US, have condemned the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Japan has territorial disputes with both China and Russia, but has flourishing trade with both of them. At the regional level in Asia, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has created a geopolitically fragmented West Asia, where Iraq is moving away from Iran, Qatar from Saudi Arabia, and UAE is pursuing a more independent foreign policy. Turkey has emerged as a big factor as it has military muscle to back its allies, and controls traffic from Black Sea, which allows it to play a major role in the revival of food exports from Ukraine. Though Iran is not directly affected by the conflict, it appears to be emerged as a major game changer in the future. In South Asia, Pakistan is on the verge of collapse as its economy has been adversely impacted by the conflict in addition to suffering from other major issues like soaring oil prices and the shortage of wheat. Similarly, Bangladesh has also been deeply impacted by the conflict in terms of exports and imports as Russia is an important market for its readymade garments besides being a major source of wheat and millet supplies. Decreasing exports and rising import bills, coupled with a disruption of supply lines due to war and sanctions, have severely impacted the global economy. It is obvious that the US is struggling to blend in order to rearrange and restructure its approach towards its partners. In fact, one can witness that Russia-Ukraine conflict is providing a chance to the US and other nations to restore their relationship. A notable change is visible in the attitude of developing nations who have now demonstrated their own approach and integrity by not following the US but concentrating on their own national interests. The US envisions cooperation with India as crucial to help ease Washington’s concerns over the destabilising activities of China in the Indo-Pacific. The US also sees Russia as a strategic threat. India, however, has a historic and enduring relationship with Russia focussing on strong economic, diplomatic and military ties. Russia is a significant supplier of arms to India accounting for about US$13 billion in the last five years. India has also imported a record high Russian crude oil of about 1.6 million barrels per day in February 2023. A complicating factor for India’s strategy, however, is the continuing alignment of Russia and China because of the Kremlin’s isolation from the West over its war on Ukraine. India is promoting itself as a leader in the Global South and remains an enthusiastic member of the BRICS that also includes China, Russia, South Africa and Brazil. There is remarkable change in the international affairs as several countries have shown a range of reactions toward the US and Russia with regard to Russia-Ukraine conflict. India and Iran have taken a relatively neutral position on the Russia-Ukraine conflict and have not bothered with the US sanctions against Russia. They have taken a measured and balanced approach in this situation and made choices based on their own national interests. In such a scenario, the US is trying its best to accommodate itself with opportunities as well as challenges in such regions as South Asia or West Asia. This is so because the rising energy prices have had both positive and negative effects on the energy producing countries. On the positive side, rising prices have led to increased revenue and higher international status for energy rich countries. There is development transformation among regional partners. On the negative connotation, the risk of food crisis has reached beyond control giving way to the state of constant fluctuations in the relationship between nations. Many non-traditional security challenges are beyond repair as the Russia-Ukraine conflict is continuing so are the challenges. It now appears that the three superpowers, China, Russia, and the US, will continue to occupy the space on the vertex of the triangle where other developing countries and energy rich countries will have to play tactfully for their own interests without any outside interference. India’s policies towards Russia can best be characterised as an example of its multi-alignment strategy. India enjoys a unique position and has excellent diplomatic relations with Iran, Israel and Arab countries. The US, on the other hand, would like to have full support from India in order to balance Russia-China ties in the current situation. As China has been trying to strengthen its political influence in the West Asia region, it remains interested in strengthening its relations with Saudi Arabia and Iran, the two largest and richest countries in the Gulf. On the Other hand, Russia is humming along in West Asia, pitching arms sales, building nuclear plants, and convening summits. Now with the recent visit of the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to the US as the state guest and the warm welcome offered by the Biden administration is obvious to picture which shows the anxiousness of the US to balance the Russia-China closeness. Yet, what India has been doing can be seen through the prism of its making serious efforts to reduce the gap between developed and developing nations. #Russia #Ukraine #WarCrisis #GlobalSouth Originally Published : The Republic World, 25th July, 2023 https://www.republicworld.com/opinions/blogs/opinion-the-geopolitical-ripples-from-the-russia-ukraine-war-articleshow.html Posted on SIS Blog with the authorisation of the Author Dr Vaishali krishna is Assistant Professor at the Centre for Russian and Central Asian Studies, School of International studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, India

By Prof. Srikanth Kondapalli China’s leaders have never really thought much of their foreign ministry. The ouster of China’s Foreign Minister Qin Gang, after only six months in that post, and the recalling of his senior Wang Yi to it, has exposed the rot in China’s higher echelons and the vulnerabilities of the second largest economy in the world. The Qin episode indicates that in China, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs counts for little. The position of Foreign Minister is not decisive in China’s hierarchy. Previously, the Communist Party’s Politburo organ, the Central Small Leading Group on Foreign Policy – exercised control. Now, the Central Foreign Affairs Commission does so. But the Foreign Minister is nevertheless important at the bureaucratic level and in implementing Communist Party policy, especially in the current “new era”. Read more at: https://www.deccanherald.com/opinion/the-ouster-of-qin-gang-anarchy-in-china-s-heaven-1242064.html Originally published : Deccan Herald, July 30th, 2023 Posted on SIS Blog with the authorisation of the Author Prof. Srikanth Kondapalli is Dean of School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, India

By Prof. Bharat H. Desai On July 21, 2023, the US President Joe Biden hosted a White House meet of a group of seven leading behemoths that generate Artificial Intelligence (AI) products. It comprised: Amazon, Anthropic, Google, Inflection, Meta, Microsoft, and OpenAI. These companies made “voluntary commitments to the White House” to implement measures such as watermarking AI-generated content to help make the technology safer. "We must be clear-eyed and vigilant about the threats from emerging technologies", President Biden announced. This ground work by the US Administration came on heels of the “blueprint for an AI Bill of Rights” (October 2022) for making automated systems work for the people. It seems to be a prelude to an Executive Order and a US legislation to regulate the rapidly growing AI technology. It assumes significance especially in view of widespread usage of generative AI – ChatGPT – that uses data to create new content such as human-sounding prose. Ostensibly, since the AI technology is here to stay, it needs to be safe, secure and beneficial to the people. AI and Global Security The White House meeting (July 21) took place as a sequel to July 18, 2023 Security Council’s first special debate on AI, “Opportunities and Risks for International Peace and Security”, organized by the UK Presidency (July 2023). It’s focus was to promote and explore the UN’s effort “to improve conflict analysis and early warning, monitor ceasefires, and support mediation efforts” as well as prevent “a serious risk if misused by states and non-state actors to contribute to instability and exacerbate conflict situations, including through the spread of online disinformation and hate speech”. In his address to the UNSC, the Secretary-General Antonio Guterres observed: “I have been shocked and impressed by the newest form of AI, generative AI, which is a radical advance in its capabilities. The speed and reach of this new technology in all its forms are utterly unprecedented”. The UNSC sought to examine: how can AI be used to enhance the UN’s peace and security toolkit? It is feared that AI could be used and abused by states and non-state actors that may cause instability and exacerbate conflict situations. It can also be invoked as a powerful propaganda tool for the spread of online disinformation and hate speech. In recent times, democratic societies have become more vulnerable since the rogue actors can use AI tools as powerful weapons to launch cyber-attacks to disrupt financial markets and banking operations, national elections and high security nuclear and space command centers. Even the designers of the AI do not seem to have an idea as to where it will lead in the future. Still, it is estimated that by 2030 AI could contribute an estimated US $10 and $15 trillion to the global economy. Need for Going ‘Artificial’ In the digital and cyber age, the role of machines has been debated over the years. However, the idea of assigning the cognitive tasks to ‘humanoids’ has caught attention. Robotics as an area of scientific research has been around for some time since automation has become integral to many high-risk industries. They are employed for multiple reasons including hazardous jobs, high security apparatus, cost factor and sheer convenience. The term AI is attributed prima facie to the ‘intelligence’ of machines. The primary source of machines’ assigned attributes are humans only. It comprises various tools, techniques and usages comprising web search engines (Google; Bing), entertainment choice providers (Amazon; Netflix; YouTube), human speech recognition tools (Siri; Alexa) and generative tools (ChatGPT). There are enormous educative possibilities of AI to make the world a better place (AI for Good Global Summit; July 6, 2023). Yet they equally present grave risks to the humans and the environment. These are primarily driven by software designed by outsourcing of human intellect to an object to make it mimic exactly as the humans would do. Therein lies the catch. Machines are machines. Isn’t it inherently risky to build general AI system that claims to be “smarter than humans”? This author saw it first hand during recent stay at the Xiamen Millennium Hotel for delivering 2023 Summer Course of Xiamen Academy of International Law. In the hotel’s 22-storied structure, often the co-passenger in the lift would be a cutely designed robot that moves around like a supervisor! As I saw, the ‘humanoid’ would perform tasks with discipline but lacked crucial human feelings, voice and touch. What was hitherto predicted in science fiction and novels, has come true with AI. The human inventions designed to conquer Nature have only brought misery on planet Earth. Hence, AI driven devices must not be allowed in any way to control Nature’s precious creation – humans. We need to find risk-free and timely answers to new vistas opened up by AI for the human race in what it does on the planet Earth as well as deep seabed and outer space. Taming the Beast: Regulating AI Turning the innovation into a boon instead of bane constitutes a new ideational challenge to counter deeply entrenched mindsets. The 67th session of the UN Commission on the Status of Women (New York; March 6-17, 2023) issued an alert since women face a graver risk from ICT. The UN data shows that women are 27 times more likely to face online harassment or hate speech. In view of this grave risk, the voluntary commitments (July 21, 2023) by the seven AI corporations based on three principles (safety, security and trust) are a good beginning for taming the beast. Notwithstanding above, the possibilities of use and abuse of AI call for a robust global regulatory instrument, a watchdog and a verification regime. Several major players such as China, European Union, the UK and the USA are considering oversight and regulatory options. This year Britain will host a global summit on AI safety. In February 2021, the Indian NITI Ayog issued an approach document on Responsible AI for All. It will require to be augmented by a Parliamentary legislation and a regulatory authority. The key challenges lie in averting threats to citizens’ privacy, misinformation as a weapon of war and ensuring safety of vital national interests and societal order. The UNSC debate of July 18 showed the gravity of the threat of AI to international peace and security. Ironically, in spite of all efforts, a transparent, equitable and democratic regulation of internet has not yet materialized. Who controls internet? It remains the big question. Therefore, AI technology requires an urgent international legal instrument to tame the beast of AI by laying down precautionary and preventive mechanisms, crisis management processes, affixing accountability of the private players, state responsibility and dispute settlement mechanism. The AI automation poses a grave peril to humanity by accident or design as well as the ethical dilemma weighs heavily on making right choices for larger societal good. It is not possible to stop scientific and technological innovations. Yet, as seen in cases of human cloning, surrogacy and stem cell research, any technology that causes human misery and societal havoc will need to be discouraged or reined in. It requires higher call of duty by going beyond legalese to safeguard interests of the future generations. The Future: Oppenheimer Moment The rapid growth in AI leads us to the Oppenheimer Moment (Christopher Nolan Interview; July 16, 2023) wherein the main protagonist in the Hollywood movie is haunted by recitation of Lord Krishna’s words in the Bhagwad Gita (Chapter 11, Verse 32): “I become death; destroyer of words”. Though used as a miasma in a film’s context, in essence, Krishna’s utterances underscore: “death is merely an illusion, that we’re not born and we don’t die”. However, AI technology cannot be allowed to become a cause for pain, suffering, death or destruction of its creator. The explosion of the social media has taught that we cannot afford more deleterious changes in human existence, heightened societal chasms, human greed and violence, harmful distractions and fatal consequences for human empathy and value systems around which lives of millions revolve. We have a much-troubled world population of 8 billion who already face a crisis of planetary survival. We need global leaders to take a timely call on AI before it is too late. The UN General Assembly mandated 2024 Summit of the Future (New York; September 22-23) would provide an ideal platform for a concrete plan of action on AI regulation. Who shall bell the cat? #UNSG #UNSC #MEA #PMIndia #ILC2023 Dr. Bharat H. Desai is Professor of International Law and Chairperson of the Centre for International Legal Studies (SIS, JNU), who served as a member of the Official Indian Delegations to various multilateral negotiations (2002-2008), coordinated the knowledge initiatives for Making SIS Visible (2008-2013) and the Inter-University Consortium: JNU; Jammu; Kashmir; Sikkim (2012-2020) as well as contributes as the Editor-in-Chief of Environmental Policy and Law (IOS Press: Amsterdam)

By Prof. Santishree Dhulipudi Pandit India has made significant efforts to empower women and foster their participation in all aspects of society. Various policies and initiatives have been implemented to remove barriers and enable women to lead and contribute to the nation's development. The government's approach focuses on egalitarianism, equity, and empathy, and has resulted in increased female literacy rates, financial independence, and improved health and well-being for women. India's commitment to women's empowerment is not only important for social justice but also reflects its role as a global leader. If the considerable efforts of our Nari Shakti (women power) are added to the hard work that is required to fulfil the dreams in this Amrit Kaal (the period leading up to the centenary of India’s independence), it will require less hard work and our deadlines will also be met. Our dreams will be more vivid, vivacious and resplendent, Prime Minister Narendra Modi noted in his 76th Independence Day speech. This statement captures the government’s position on women empowerment, while indicating foresight about the pivotal role that the government envisions for women. Over the last decade, India has witnessed a remarkable shift towards empowering women and fostering their participation in the economy, society, and politics. Significant efforts were made to creating an environment where women could lead and spearhead the nation’s development. While women empowerment schemes were implemented by successive governments since the 1990s, the current approach is different as it seeks to remove various barriers, including mental, psychological, physical, economic, social, and political obstacles, by constructing narratives that foster an ecosystem characterised by egalitarianism, equity, and empathy. To such ends, several policies and initiatives were introduced and adapted over time to address the evolving needs of women. Around a dozen major policies currently aim to empower women in education, entrepreneurship, skill development, health, well-being, and political representation. Through targeted interventions and awareness-raising efforts, the Beti Bachao, Beti Padhao scheme increased female literacy rates and reduced gender imbalances. Pursuing higher education and establishing businesses have become possible and accessible like never before. Schemes such as the Sukanya Samridhi Yojana (2015), Pradhan Mantri Mudra Yojana (2015), and Stand-Up India Scheme (2016) allowed women to gain financial independence while also becoming a contributor to India’s economic development. The data on the growth of women-led enterprises, receding the gender gap, and increased credit to women entrepreneurs are a testament to changing realities. The Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana was introduced to improve women’s health, safety, and overall well-being in economically weaker households. By providing free LPG connections, the scheme effectively eliminates health hazards associated with traditional cooking methods enabling them to pursue education, employment, and other opportunities. Meanwhile, the Pradhan Mantri Matru Vandana Yojana provided working women -- who left their job due to pregnancy -- compensation for their wage loss. Besides policy measures that touched the lives of millions of women, the most significant change India witnessed was a societal renaissance that removed hidden barriers. The active government efforts aided by rising consciousness among the Indian populace resonate with the renewed push for articulating and propagating Bharatiya (Indian) narratives. About women empowerment, there has been a reach out to the hinterlands and remote tribal communities, manifested in the Prime Minister’s regular recounting stories of women in his Mann ki Baat addresses. Moreover, there is a reinvigorated focus on broadening the knowledge base in Indian knowledge systems by incorporating diverse viewpoints and recognising the historical contributions of women from different regions of India. Finally, the Indic narratives that resonate with the themes of womanhood and core feminist values have allowed connecting tradition with modernity, continuity with change, realm with region, and a theory with practice. The Indic narratives that empower the feminine are extremely relevant for Global South Alternatives. These narratives can be used as our civilisation values such as Drapaudi as the first feminist, Sita as the first single mother, Kannagi as the first citizen activist, and Madhavi as the first poet. These narratives have to be articulated extensively and researched. For these articulations, the use of science and technology are just instruments, which are ineffective without developing an ecosystem that builds an egalitarian, equitable and a non-discriminatory order that will not have a lifelong and long-term impact. India has recognised the universal significance of women’s empowerment as a global issue since it is evident that such concerns cannot be limited to national borders. As India gains increasing respect and recognition on the world stage, there is a need for the country to serve as a role model for others. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has demonstrated this awareness multiple times, most recently in his speech in Bali in November 2022, where he emphasised the indispensable role of women’s participation in global development. He stressed prioritising women-led development in the G20 agenda, highlighting that global goals are attainable only with women’s active involvement. This significant aspect has been prominently observed during India’s chairmanship of the G20 this year. Recognising the importance of women empowerment internationally reflects India’s commitment towards driving a positive change within its borders and globally. In contrast to the Western approach of empowering women that remains limited to providing increased opportunities, the Indian approach of women-led development places women at the forefront of development, enabling them to take charge of their progress and play a leading role. India has come a long way in a short time, but the fact that there are still events where one sees the phrase “first female” used should prompt better action and awareness. Women’s empowerment is not just a matter of social justice; it is an inherent part of India’s rich and vibrant civilisation. Although there is still progress to be made, the fact that India, as the world’s oldest and largest democracy, is led by its first tribal woman as the head of State is a powerful testament to its commitment towards women-led development. #NariShakti #G20Agenda #India #AmritKaal Originally Published : The Hindustan Times, 15th, July 2023 https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/women-empowerment-india-s-commitment-towards-women-led-development-in-the-amrit-kaal-of-independence-101689362438166.html Posted in SIS Blog with the authorization of the author. Prof Santishree Dhulipudi Pandit is Vice Chancellor, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi

By Prof. Srikanth Kondapalli By introducing soft sectors like innovation, traditional medicine, Buddhism, and youth empowerment in the SCO activities, India, during the chairmanship of the group, apparently tried to give a new touch to the international security and defence organization The New Delhi summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) concluded on July 4, 2023 virtually after 140 programmes of conferences, workshops, and dialogues of member states on different subjects. India also invited observer states such as Afghanistan, Belarus and Mongolia and dialogue partners like Azerbaijan, Armenia, Cambodia, Nepal, Turkey, and Sri Lanka and held 14 ministerial meetings. Such activities are unprecedented in nature so far under the Indian leadership of the SCO. Also, unprecedented is the elevation of the soft sectors like innovation, Buddhism, traditional medicine, youth empowerment and digital inclusion, decarbonisation in the SCO activities and agenda formation. For a multilateral organisation like the SCO, seen widely as a hard-security focused group with counter-terrorism, energy security, drugs and small arms proliferation control and others dominating its agenda, the Indian touch is significant in transforming the SCO norms. A third unprecedented formulation is the inclusion of Central Asia as the “core” of the SCO. Both the New Delhi Declaration as well as Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s speech mention this. This is a significant outcome of the SCO meeting as the two traditional powers of the SCO like Russia and China are seen as influencing events to their advantage in the Eurasian region. Russia has been the traditional power holder in the region since the tsarist times. It has significant Russian diaspora, business interests, investments in strategic sectors, armaments industries and dependencies. However, the annexation of Donbas recently and Crimea before had resulted in concerns in the Eurasian region. When Almaty riots took place in early 2022, however, Kazakhstan invited Russian dominated Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) troops to stabilise the situation. China is the new upstart in Central Asia trying to implement its ancient stratagem of “fanke weizu” (reversing the role of host and the guest) – essentially to displace Russia – through aid that resulted in massive debt for Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, with Kazakhstan barely able to survive the panda-hug, investments in four energy pipelines and oil wells. China’s real estate grab in Almaty led to massive protests a few years ago. China has been enticing Central Asia through summit meetings since the Xian meeting in May this year, given Russian distraction in the Ukraine conflict. To steer away from the geo-political weight of Russia and China, the focus on Central Asia as the “core” is expected to enhance the region’s significance. However, Central Asia needs to be on guard as China divided the ASEAN region in order to grab South China Sea territories. A decade ago, only one country sided with China in the ASEAN grouping. Now, very few countries like Vietnam stand-up to China. Central Asia could witness such a fate if it does not balance bigger powers. A fourth significant development is that the SCO is on the path of membership expansion with Iran joining the New Delhi meeting, while Belarus will be admitted after formalities are completed. Several countries have expressed interest in joining, even though Mongolia, which has been a dialogue partner since 2001, has no interest in upgrading itself to become full-fledged member even after two decades. The SCO is said to consist of nearly one-third of the global economy at roughly $25 trillion. However, much of the gross domestic product of the SCO is traced to China, the 2nd largest economy at over $19 trillion, India the fifth largest economy at over $3 trillion and Russia at over $1.7 trillion. Intra-SCO trade is minimal by globalisation standards and predominantly composed of energy resources. Barriers to trade, investments and free market principles are yet to take roots in the region. The SCO is also said to be the largest populated multilateral organisation with over 40 percent of global population but even here India and China at over 1.4 billion each constitute the lion’s share. While China’s population is fast ageing, India's youth bulge offers opportunities for Russia and Central Asia. It is significant that youth exchanges are emphasised by India in the past year-long programmes. Another significant feature of the SCO is that it combines the largest energy producers in Russia, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and now Iran and largest consumers like China and India. The Ukraine conflict resulted in massive energy shortages benefiting Russian exports to China and India. An energy club was established in the SCO but skewed in favour of Beijing. China currently monopolises the Central Asian energy grid with various initiatives. India’s emphasis on Chabahar Port and International North-South Transport Corridor provides an opportunity for the Central Asian region to diversify energy resources. Finally, SCO crafted itself as a hard security organisation with Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure (RATS) headquarters located at Tashkent, Uzbekistan. RATS is to facilitate information sharing on terrorism and curb such activities. While SCO facilitated “peace mission” counter-terror exercises every year for the member states, it has not been able to make much progress with the epicentre of terrorism in Afghanistan and Pakistan, partly due to prevalence of double-standards. As a Cold War legacy, China’s position on this issue increasingly came under scrutiny. China aided the Mujahideen to counter the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan in the 1980s. With the Soviet Union disintegration, China continued to engage the Taliban recently with a deal to provide support in lieu of countering the Uighur insurgency in Xinjiang. Despite terror attacks on Chinese at Kabul, Kandahar, Karachi, Quetta and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, China continues to bank on Pakistan and Afghanistan that promote terrorism. This has unnerved India as China even began to support Pakistan in the United Nations Security Council mandated 1267 Committee and shielding terror outfits and individuals in Pakistan. This has diluted the resolve of the SCO on the subject. Another dent into the SCO is that when it was formed in 1996 as Shanghai Five, they insisted on confidence building measures (CBMs) in border areas to reduce tensions. However, with China overthrowing mutually agreed CBMs in Galwan in Ladakh-Aksai Chin borders in June 2020, a new round of tensions began between China and India that have not subsisted so far. This has exposed double standards in the SCO practice. #SCO #India #NewDelhiDeclaration #NewTouch #InternationalSecurity #PMModi Originally Posted : India Vs Disinformation, 10th July 2023 https://www.indiavsdisinformation.com/20230710/sco-summit-indian-touch-gives-a-new-meaning-and-outlook-to-organisation Posted on SIS Blog with the authorisation of the author. Prof. Srikanth Kondapalli is Dean of School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, India

By Prof. Santishree Dhulipudi Pandit An enduring legacy of the Marathas and Hindavi Swaraj The 350th year since the coronation of Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj is an occasion of great historical significance, offering an opportunity to reflect on the enduring legacy of the Marathas and Shivaji’s vision of Hindavi Swaraj, or self-rule. This milestone invites us to delve into the rich historical fabric of the Marathas, exploring their military prowess, governance and leadership, cultural preservation, and relevance to the Indian security today. These unsung heroes and gaps of Indian history need to be filled. It is time that both the Central and State Governments encouraged the research in higher education institutions. The legacy of Shivaji continues to inspire generations of individuals and governments. As such, to commemorate this special anniversary, we should look back at the transformative period of his rule that shaped the course of Indian history and continues to resonate today without attenuating the profound significance it holds. MAKING HARD CHOICES The rise of the Marathas under the leadership of Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj represented a seismic shift in Indian history. Their emergence as a formidable force challenged the hegemony of the Mughal Empire, ultimately leading to the establishment of Hindavi Swaraj. Hindavi Swaraj was a clarion call for self rule against the Mughal and other invaders. The valour, guerilla tactics, military strategy and construction of forts both inland and on the coast as part of their unique naval strategy in the Western Indian Ocean. The Marathas’ military campaigns showcased their exceptional strategic insight and innovative tactics, resulting in significant victories against more powerful adversaries. They were a bulwark against the Islamic invasions down South and saved the South from the plunder of temples, genocide and mass forced conversions. Yet, what exemplifies Shivaji most is his proclivity to make hard choices as a tactician on the battlefield, as a ruler, and as an individual. Instead of choosing a life of comfort serving the feudal lords like many of his contemporaries, Shivaji took the road less travelled as he sought to fight for freedom. One of his ingenuities was to adopt a warfare approach characterized by guerrilla tactics, swift mobility, and the effective use of terrain. He pioneered the concept of guerrilla warfare, using hit-and-run tactics, ambushes, and surprise attacks to weaken the powerful Mughal forces. Later, this was reflected in his successors’ campaigns that adapted to the ever-changing battlefield conditions to challenge the established order. Furthermore, the Marathas under Shivaji took to the seas even while it was easier to raise armies. Indeed, the Marathas turned out to be skilled naval commanders known for their naval expeditions and for establishing a strong maritime presence along the Konkan and Malabar coasts. Their navy played a pivotal role in securing coastal regions, protecting trade routes, and challenging the dominance of European powers in the Indian Ocean. The Maratha Empire’s territorial expansion and the subsequent weakening of the Mughal Empire laid the foundation for a significant power shift in India. Their rise opened up new avenues for regional powers, redefining the political landscape and heralding a new era of indigenous self-rule. LESSONS FOR EFFECTIVE GOVERNANCE Many discussions on Shivaji’s legacy deal with his military conquests, expeditions, and defiance of the Mughal rule. However, Shivaji’s vision of efficient governance, justice, and welfare was central to the Maratha legacy. He implemented a series of administrative reforms that laid the foundation for a well-rounded administration. The “Ashta Pradhan,” or the Council of Eight Ministers, exemplified Shivaji’s emphasis on diverse perspectives and expertise in governance. Each minister represented a specific facet of governance, such as finance, defence, foreign affairs, and intelligence. This system ensured a comprehensive and inclusive approach to decision-making, facilitating effective governance and fostering a sense of accountability. Shivaji’s administration prioritized its subjects’ welfare, implementing policies promoting social justice and economic prosperity. He emphasised the importance of local self-governance and empowered regional leaders to manage their territories autonomously. This approach decentralized power and effectively addressed local concerns and needs. Furthermore, Shivaji’s administration emphasised meritocracy, where individuals were appointed based on their skills and abilities rather than their social status or birth. Such ideas may appear standard in today’s day and age, but back then, such views were radical. A direct outcome of such merit-based appointments was that Shivaji’s administration represented one of the most inclusive administrations in medieval history. The Marathas’ administrative reforms also extended to revenue administration, where they introduced a systematic land revenue system that emphasised equitable taxation. This system played a crucial role in stimulating agricultural production and economic growth, benefiting the state and its subjects. The significance of such tax reforms is hard to grapple in today’s understanding. To put it in context, the Marathas under Shivaji implemented a revenue system rooted in equitable taxation principle, while the overwhelming population in mainland India at the time suffered from discriminatory and predatory taxes like Jiziya (tax collected from non-Muslims) and bhutfarosi (tax collected from idol worshippers). The Marathas’ focus on governance and welfare continues to hold valuable lessons about an inclusive and equitable societal structure that works for all, not for the few. PRESERVING CULTURE AND CELEBRATING DIVERSITY Beyond military and administrative achievements, the Marathas were passionate patrons and preservers of cultural heritage. Shivaji’s reign witnessed a flourishing of arts, literature, and architecture, creating a rich cultural and intellectual milieu. The Marathas’ patronage extended to poets, scholars, and artists who contributed significantly to Marathi literature, music, dance, and artistic traditions. Their support for regional languages and indigenous cultural expressions fostered a sense of pride and unity among diverse communities. This resulted in fostering Indian culture that stood distinct from outside rulers from Central Asia. The Marathas celebrated diversity, transcending divisions based on religion or caste. Shivaji promoted a pluralistic ethos that emphasised unity in the face of adversity. He recognised the importance of cultural identity and took significant steps to revive and promote Marathi culture, language, and traditions. Shivaji’s patronage of Sanskrit and Marathi literature and the establishment of educational institutions nurtured a vibrant intellectual and cultural atmosphere in his kingdom. Interestingly, Shivaji changed the court language from Persian (traditionally the courtly language in the country) to Marathi. This change was accompanied by an emphasis on Hindu political and courtly customs and traditions, as evidenced by his official seal, which was in Sanskrit. Shivaji’s love and admiration for Sanskrit were not limited to this. He commissioned a lexicon to replace Persian and Arabic words with their equivalents in Sanskrit. Shivaji sought to promote the use of Marathi and Sanskrit to foster a cultural and linguistic identity aligned with the Hindu heritage in his kingdom. A champion of social emancipation and the architect of the Indian Constitution, Bhimrao Ambedkar was also inspired by Shivaji. The landmark legislation CK Bole Act that opened public spaces for Scheduled Communities and the subsequent Mahad Satyagraha (1927) underscores the importance of Shivaji as a social unifier in India that employed slogans such as “Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj ki Jai!” Shivaji’s ideals and approach to cultural preservation serve as a model for embracing diversity and nurturing a collective identity that transcends societal divisions. LEGACY OF SWARAJYA One of the earliest nationalists of the freedom movement in India, Dadabhai Naoroji, is often attributed to bringing the word swaraj into the lexicon of freedom struggle. Later, Lokmanya Bal Gangadhara Tilak popularized the term, echoing Shivaji’s vision of self-rule. However, the term was first coined by Chhatrapati Shivaji in 1646 CE (to declare war against the Adil Shahi to win self-rule), making this one of the most invaluable contributors of Shivaji to the Indian Independence struggle. Furthermore, Shivaji and his stories profoundly impacted Indian freedom fighters, thinkers, writers, poets, and the larger Indian consciousness. For instance, Shivaji’s ideals caused Tilak to start the Shivaji Utsav, which helped invigorate India’s democratic processes and fostered a sense of national pride. The term Hindavi Swarajya (self-rule of Hindus) has helped shape contemporary India in ways that many Indians remain oblivious to. This concept, popularized by the visionary leader Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj, embodies a spiritual and inclusive vision beyond political independence. It represents the essence of a nation-state that cherishes its cultural heritage, upholds egalitarian values, and embraces diversity. Under the auspices of the concept, Shivaji aimed to break the barriers of social hierarchy, social stagnation, and social exclusion and lay down the foundation for a more equitable society. As such, the concept has been crucial in forming a national consciousness and even nation-building itself. Such understanding of Shivaji’s Hindavi Swarajya was best exemplified by his rule and governance, where ideas of social inclusion and mobility were so advanced that they may humble many so-called modern societies of today. The principles and values espoused by the Marathas and Hindavi Swaraj remain relevant in addressing modern-day challenges. In a rapidly changing world, there is a need for indigenous solutions; national pride and participatory governance are valuable in navigating contemporary challenges. As such, Shivaji’s commitment to self-determination, resistance against oppressive rule, and the promotion of inclusive and decentralized governance provide insights for individuals, societies, and governments grappling with questions of autonomy, identity, and development. The supreme sacrifice of Sambhaji Maharaj, who was brutally tortured and killed in a gruesome manner by Aurangazeb for refusing to convert under duress and standing up for Hindavi Swaraj need to be told in filling the gaps of history. One fashionably talks of Muslim genocide when there is none, but none speaks of the facts of Hindu genocide throughout the medieval period. Hindu genocide took place in the Kashmir valley as late as 1990. It is these strategic silences that need to be corrected and the facts be made public. One cannot normalise rape, loot, plunder and genocide. Let us remove the ghosts that have been constructed. In commemorating the 350th anniversary of Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj’s coronation, the most profound tribute lies in upholding and cherishing the enduring influence of the Marathas and Hindavi Swaraj on India and its people. Shivaji’s concept of swarajya reverberates as an indomitable force within India’s historical tapestry. Its multifaceted essence encompasses making hard choices to challenge the pressures of foreign invading powers, their fanatical tactics and genocide of local population, effective governance, preserving the cultural heritage, promoting diversity, and, most importantly, recognising the importance of self-rule. However, one must exercise caution to prevent these remarkable accomplishments and legacies from being confined to a mere annual commemoration or fleeting social media homage. Instead, they should be imbibed and internalized, for there exists no finer way to honour Shivaji’s legacy than to assimilate his virtuous acts and values through making it a part of our school and University curriculum as well as research. Every state needs to have a factual history and one where there is genuine pride. History cannot exist on shaky and fabricated foundations. The practice of defeated societies being excluded and marginalised, needs to be contested. Hence Marathas who challenged the Mughals were marginalised. History is weaponised with glaring biases such as Aurangazeb was generous and secular, whereas Marathas were communal for they fought for Hindavi Swaraj. This is based on interpretation rather than fact. We are sacrificing this at the altar of political calculations. One should not erase large chunks of history that erase the Bharatiya narratives. We need a plurality of voices and truth cannot be blamed. NEP 2020 is a historic document and framework where these glaring gaps in history need to be told loud and clear, where we celebrate our spirit of resilience and courage like that of the Marathas. #ChhatrapatiShivaji #Swaraj Originally Published : The SundayGuardian, 9th, July 2023 https://sundayguardianlive.com/opinion/350th-year-of-chhatrapati-shivajis-coronation Posted in SIS Blog with the authorization of the author. Prof Santishree Dhulipudi Pandit is Vice Chancellor, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi

By Prof. Srikanth Kondapalli The SCO represents 40 per cent of the world’s population and a third of its GDP, albeit due to China and India India seemed to be charting a new bottom-up, democratic approach in the just-concluded Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit meeting under its presidency. The challenges are formidable in the highly authoritarian regimes of the region, but the approach is subtle, long-term, and comprehensive. The July 4 meeting of the heads of the SCO came at the end of a year-long outreach to all member-states, observers and dialogue partners during which India organised a massive programme of 140 diverse activities across the country involving these countries, specifically their youth. As the SCO is expanding – Iran became a member, Belarus may be next – India has been paying much attention since it became a full member six years ago. The SCO represents 40 per cent of the world’s population and a third of its GDP, albeit due to China and India. One significant approach India adopted at this meeting was to strongly put forth its strengths and interests. In contrast to the top-down approach among many authoritarian governments, India advocated enhancing “contact and engagement among people” -- reflected in the programmes conducted across the country. New Delhi also offered to share India’s start-up experience. With the Stalinist planning model discredited and market economy spreading, India’s suggestions on start-ups, innovation and digital inclusion provide a transformative moment for the SCO states. India also advocated youth empowerment, traditional medical practices, and shared Buddhist heritage. There are also proposals for cooperation in emerging fuels, decarbonisation, and digital public infrastructure. These are sure to create interest in the Central Asian states whose aspirations India declared to be its “primary focus”. The New Delhi declaration announced Central Asia as the “the core of SCO”, perhaps replicating its “ASEAN centrality” approach in the Indo-Pacific in this Eurasian grouping. However, India needs to find its feet and resurrect the age-old ties it had with the region to overcome the hard power of the two dominant powers in the SCO, Russia and China. This is easier said than done for several reasons. Firstly, in a surprise move, India announced that the 23rd SCO summit would be held in the virtual format. That decision led to speculation mainly due to the actions of China and Pakistan. Pakistan Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari’s intemperate remarks and Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang’s (and Defence Minister Li Shangfu’s) denial of any border crisis with India created an impression of a Sino-Pak cabal in the SCO. China’s summit meeting with the Central Asian republics at Xian in May this year, the new trilateral of China-Russia-Iran and other signals from Beijing indicated strongly moves to balance against India. A virtual meeting avoided any embarrassment for New Delhi due to all this. Secondly, given India’s national security priority of countering cross-border terrorism, India found the Sino-Pak axis on the issue intriguing. India’s call to avoid double standards in addressing counter- terrorism efforts appear to be falling on deaf ears as China supports Pakistan in the UNSC 1267 committee proceedings as well as shielding Pakistan-based terror outfits. While India participated in Russia-led counter-terror exercises and found useful tactical and operational principles, given the Sino-Pak axis, counter-terrorism issues have been diluted in the SCO to India’s disadvantage. Also, regional security in the SCO has worsened with the Ukraine war, imposing costs on India and the Global South in terms of food, fuel and fertiliser shortages and price rise. The SCO had taken up an energy club effort, given the preponderance of energy producers and consumers. However, so far, much of the energy resources have been garnered by China as Pakistan has blocked initiatives to transport energy resources from Central Asia to India. Recently, India found an opportunity after Chabahar Port was built. India is also backing the International North-South Transport Corridor. Russia has also supplied substantial energy resources to India in the last two years. Thirdly, India remains the lone SCO member to not have endorsed, much less joined, China’s Belt and Road Initiative. India reiterated its position that “it is essential to uphold the basic principles of the SCO charter, particularly respecting the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the member-states”, pointing at the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor that passes through Pak-Occupied Kashmir. India also stated that “it is our shared responsibility to understand each other’s needs and sensitivities.” As the host of the SCO, India thus had to steer through difficult and turbulent terrain, balance competing claims, and still protect its interests and aspirations. A creative “soft” approach of reaching out to the people of the Eurasian region amongst the “hard” regimes appeared to be the best path, and New Delhi took it. #SCO #India #CentralAsia #Eurasia #Terrorism #Energy #EnergyTwitter #Climate #Covid Originally Published : The Deccan Herald, 9th July 2023 https://www.deccanherald.com/opinion/new-delhi-is-carving-out-a-lonely-furrow-in-sco-1235239.html Posted in SIS Blog with the authorization of the author. Prof. Srikanth Kondapalli is Dean of School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, India

By Dr. Sakti Prasad Srichandan The focus of this NATO framework is on containing China, and joining it has the potential to undermine India’s autonomy It was during a virtual press briefing in March 2023 on the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) focus on South Asia and the Indo-Pacific region that the United States Permanent Representative to NATO, Julianne Smith, was quoted as saying that “the NATO alliance is open to more engagement, should India seek that”. Reflecting the same sentiment, the U.S. House Select Committee on the Strategic Competition between the United States and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), in May 2023, recommended strengthening the ‘NATO-Plus’ framework by including India in the grouping. India’s External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar had rejected this idea by saying that “NATO template does not apply to India”. Yet on the eve of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to the U.S., in June, Senate India Caucus Co-Chair Mark Warner shared his plans to table a bill to bring India into the NATO Plus fold. NATO and NATO Plus NATO is a transatlantic military alliance of 31 countries, with the majority of members from Europe. After the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War, many thought that NATO would lose its relevance. On the contrary, NATO has not only survived but also expanded, with Finland joining as its 31st member (April 2023), and Sweden waiting in the wings. NATO appears to be getting the much-needed ground for survival, thanks to Russia’s tirade against it and the invasion of Ukraine. With NATO swelling its expanse, some analysts even see the onset of Cold War 2.0. “NATO plus” refers to a security arrangement of NATO and the five treaty allies of the U.S. — Australia, New Zealand, Japan, Israel, and South Korea as members — to enhance “global defence cooperation” and win the “strategic competition with the Chinese Communist Party”. Interestingly, the term ‘NATO Plus’ is not an officially recognised or established concept within NATO itself, but has been used in discussions and debates regarding the potential expansion of the alliance. The inclusion of these countries as members would require a complex process of negotiation and assessment of their compatibility with NATO’s principles, obligations, and defence commitments. While NATO’s earlier target was the Soviet Union and now Russia, the focus of NATO Plus is clearly on containing China. Therefore, considering its disputes with China, India remains a missing link in the framework. In light of increasing regional security challenges, India joining the NATO Plus framework could provide it with a security umbrella, with protection and deterrence against potential threats. India could also gain access to advanced military technologies, intelligence-sharing platforms, and inter-operability with other member-states. This could potentially strengthen India’s defence capabilities and modernisation efforts. But this bait needs to be assessed in the larger context of India’s strategic autonomy. First, getting into any NATO framework will annoy Russia and China. Apart from the robust strategic partnership, Russia has been useful to India in dealing with regional security challenges and, importantly, moderating the stance of China. Even though Russia is getting over-dependent on China, post the war in Ukraine, Moscow remains a valuable partner for India. Should it join, in one stroke, India’s solidified strategic partnership with Russia will crumble. Balancing these relationships and managing potential geopolitical consequences would be a significant challenge for India. Second, while aligning with a U.S.-led alliance system may be tempting due to the threats posed by China, it could ultimately prove counterproductive and detrimental. Having a military framework will limit India’s freedom of action and prevent it from pursuing an independent policy towards China. Moreover, at a time when India has its own bilateral issues with China and a strategy for the Indo-Pacific, hopping into the Taiwan strategy of the U.S. under NATO Plus will complicate India’s security, with the possibility of Chinese justification for further military build-up along the India-China border and frequent intrusion. Third, India has traditionally maintained a policy of strategic autonomy, allowing it to engage with various nations and blocs based on its own interests. Joining a NATO framework would require India to align its defence and security policies with the objectives and strategies of the alliance, thereby potentially undermining India’s autonomy. While the non-aligned policy will get a quick death, it could strain relationships with countries, especially neighbours and regional organisations that value India’s independent stance, and could also limit its flexibility in engaging with other regional powers. India’s priorities India’s priorities lie in addressing its own regional dynamics that includes a unique set of security challenges such as border disputes, terrorism, and regional conflicts. While NATO has certain competencies to deal with such issues, its larger geopolitical agenda starting from Eurasia to the Indo-Pacific may divert resources and attention away from these pressing issues and, therefore, will not be of much help to India. For the time being, India’s posturing through the Quad (India, Japan, Australia and the U.S.; the Asian NATO as per China) looks more promising than the NATO Plus bait, though China remains an elephant in the room during its summits. #NATOPlus #India #Autonomy Originally published : The Hindu, July 4th, 2023 https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/india-should-refuse-americas-nato-plus-bait/article67038238.ece Posted in SIS Blog with the authorization of the author Dr. Sakti Prasad Srichandan is Assistant Professor, Centre for European Studies, School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, India