By Tashi Dorje Gyamba
JD Vance in his Munich Security Conference speech made it clear that America is rerouting its focus. The apparent process and structural geopolitical shift, became visible in the uneasiness with which Vance delivered the speech, and the uneasiness with which the European participants received it. German Minister Pistorius pronounced the speech as unacceptable, as it questioned not just a nation’s, but all of Europe's democratic values.
This picture presents a critical point in the ongoing Trans-Atlantic divergence. But across the Pacific signalling strengthening convergences, a day prior to the speech, POTUS Trump met Indian PM Narender Modi. They signed multiple agreements. Deepening ties between the world’s oldest and the world’s largest democracy.
Old Tradition Cracks
Reason, liberalism and democracy are traditional western enlightenment values. Post Second World War, the Trans-Atlantic relations hinged on them. It bound the western liberal world order, and gave space to both America and Europe to continue pursuing their respective national interests.
European society began integrating and flourishing as a bloc. After the formation of the European Union, its unified heft allowed it to flaunt its Brussels effect—power to guide global norms. On the other side of the Atlantic, firstly, America maintained its pole position with the Soviet, and then its status of global primacy after the Soviet collapse. This equilibrium tied by security agreements like NATO endured and drove well into the twenty first century.
As geopolitical realities changed, it began restructuring this relationship. The common denominator of values moulded as a common heritage of the “West” began to recede. With the arrival of the Trump 2.0 administration, and recent American posturing in Europe, fissures created by American interests made the writing on the wall clear. Interpretation on carrying-out of these values began to differ, blames arose and political capacities to support each other flipped. For example, JD Vance’s remark on great internal threats of Europe, and Pete Hegseth’s call on Europe to actually defend its own backyard.
Structural shifts driven by various drivers have sharpened the divergence. Firstly, the arrival of DeepSeek at the end of January, largely hailed as the Sputnik moment, narrowed the tech-gap between America and its primary competitor China, down to nearly six months. Prior to Munich, at the Paris AI Summit, Vance made it clear that America intends to retain global technological primacy. Secondly, the Draghi Competitiveness report has highlighted that Europe is behind other nations on innovation and productivity. Structural economic issues like regulatory fragmentation, labor market rigidity, and underinvestment in innovation all make for a blunt Europe heading for “slow agony”. Demographic wintering and focus on costly clean energy further add to the bill. And thirdly, nations on both sides of the Trans-Atlantic are undergoing political and ideological changes that push for politics of nationalism and unilateralism against commitments to internationalism, free trade, and multilateralism. Firewalls have fallen as globally political support drifts rightward. And nationalist movements like MAGA and MEGA are gaining traction.
Rerouting
As winter hits Trans-Atlantic ties, geopolitical reconfigurations have pivoted America towards the Indo-Pacific. China’s rising status in the persisting global order has aligned and brought America closer to India. Democratic values which had been a part and parcel of both political systems, have begun to blossom as reasonable connectors. Meanwhile, the idea of MAGA and MIGA, going hand in hand, has also caught the imagination of the respective leaders. In International Relations, when states begin to share such interests and values, together they create a sense of security, and a desire to create a certain harmony.
On account of this bonhomie, the undermined Trans-Atlantic relations have been superseded by the will to conserve the spirit of Free and Open Indo-Pacific. This framework allows America to pursue its purpose of offshore balancing China by using India as a counterweight. And allows India to build its security against regional primacy of China.
As PM Modi noted, this has been possible in the wake of the two nations overcoming mutually-mistrusted “hesitations of history.” Former American National Security Advisor, Jake Sullivan’s visit to India, as the last in his official capacity, demonstrated the importance of this newfound love and comprehensive global strategic partnership. Recent defence and tech progressions such as the broad new COMPACT framework enables the two to work together on defence, trade and investment, energy security, technology, multilateralism and people to people cooperation. ASIA for underwater domain awareness, INDUS-innovation for defence industry, TRUST promoting critical technologies and Strategic Mineral Recovery Partnership addressing the problem of Sino-American rocks versus chips, are some of the key agreements signed.
As these interests, values and workings continue to provide momentum to a close American and India relationship. It is also to be noted that Europe is also showing interest, and is gravitating towards the Indian summer or as called the arrival of India. Be it a free trade agreement between India and EFTA—Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway, and Switzerland—or EU’s College of Commissioners unprecedented maiden visit to india.
Shape of Water
On the heels of democratic backsliding trends across democratic indices, POTUS Trump teases with a third term. Arguments have been made that America is on path towards a competitive authoritarianism—free elections but on a non level playing field—and that American exceptionalism resting on moral superiority of democracy and human rights, stands eroded.
Still, with the gains in sight and values in its heart, India has begun to dance the water for America. Warning shots about the perils of being a proxy in great power competition, and facing a “boss” partner that uses over leveraging for deal-making, have already been shot from the scholarly corner.
Yet, Trans-Atlantic divergences and Indo-Pacific convergences continue to intensify. Aligned mega partnership of America and India has become a thing of the foreseeable “westless” world. And yet maybe, as global competition augurs, the world’s oldest and the world’s largest democracy hold promise to a better balance of powers in the next phase of the multi-civilization and multipolar world.
The two nations share interests and values. If the architecture sits and allows India to maintain its strategic autonomy with a tilt towards America, while enabling America to sustain its global primacy, both nations' combined determination to guard values and prophylactic moves to protect valuable sea lanes of open communication will be fruitive.
This Article is an Original Contribution to the SIS Blog
Tashi Dorje Gyamba is a Ph.D. candidate in the Diplomacy and Disarmament division at the Centre for International Politics, Organisation and Disarmament (CIPOD), School of International Studies (SIS), Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi.