China’s Deepening Ties with the Taliban Pose a Strategic Dilemma for India in the Region

By Sanjay Turi

In the wake of the shifting regional power dynamics, the emerging alliance between China, Pakistan, Bangladesh and the Taliban is a warning call for India to give more emphasis on engaging with the region. Ignoring China’s multilateral engagement with the neighbouring countries will pose a significant threat to India's strategic interests in the region.

In light of India’s Operation Sindoor post Pahalgam Attack, the Chinese government hosted a meeting between Pakistan and Afghanistan’s Taliban government led by Ishaq Dar and Amir Khan Muttaqi, respectively. India’s earlier dream of benefiting from the rising conflict between Pakistan and the Taliban seems to have shattered as the Taliban has stepped towards joining the China-led CPEC projects. In addition to the Taliban’s recent association with BRI, China’s simultaneous multilateral engagements with Pakistan and Bangladesh appear to have paved the way for the establishment of an anti-India bloc in the region. It has sent a shockwave to Delhi regarding the future bilateral relations between Delhi and Kabul, as well as Dhaka.

The geopolitical dynamics of South and Central Asia are now poised for a notable shift with the Taliban's recent decision to officially join the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Inaugurated in 2015 as a key project under China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), CPEC bridges China's Xinjiang region with Pakistan's Gwadar Port. With Afghanistan’s recent aspiration to join this crucial infrastructure network under the Taliban government, India is likely to face a significant strategic challenge in the entire Central Asian region. For New Delhi, which has historically held strong economic and diplomatic relations with Afghanistan, this decision of Kabul poses a significant threat to India's strategic influence in the region and raises major concerns regarding encirclement and influence.

Picture Source: DD News

From a geostrategic perspective, the deepening ties between India and Afghanistan in recent times, amid rising border tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan, were well expected to work in favour of India. However, Kabul's recent shocking decision to join CPEC has completely changed the geopolitical landscape of this region. It can also be argued that as India has consistently been severely critical of CPEC (BRI), given that it passes through Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, Kabul’s landmark decision to cooperate with China and Pakistan on this project will not only deteriorate its bilateral relationship with India, but also, this diplomatic initiative by Kabul is likely to alter the entire geopolitics of Central Asia soon, further pushing India towards facing a significant geostrategic dilemma in the region.  

China has long patiently sought to utilise CPEC as a gateway to the Gulf and other West Asian countries. Therefore, the Taliban’s recent decision to join CPEC will undoubtedly make the Chinese Dream Project inevitable, which will potentially help China counter India’s stronghold in the region. Once China manages to bridge this gap, it may aggressively disrupt India’s increasing influence in the region.

As India has already made massive infrastructural investments and developmental projects such as Chabahr-Zahedan Railway line, Zaranj-Delaram Highway etc in Afghanistan, aiming to add to the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) as a new gateway to carry out trade with Central Asia, Europe and Russia, the recent geopolitical dynamics in the post trilateral cooperation between China, Pakistan and Taliban will most likely disrupt India’s penetration in the region.

China has recently hosted another trilateral meeting with Bangladesh and Pakistan in Kunming, and this meeting seems to be showing China’s strong determination to strengthen the String of Pearls Policy in the Indian Ocean. China’s increasing aspiration to get access to the Bay of Bengal through Bangladesh and the Arabian Sea through Pakistan is not only challenging the Indian influence in the region, but also significantly challenging the US influence in the Indo-Pacific region. Many experts believe that China, through this Kunming Diplomacy, seems to be creating an alternative bloc to SAARC, where China, in the absence of India, will be dominating the entire South Asia and possibly the India ocean too.

China’s focus on extending CPEC

It has been widely observed that CPEC is slowly becoming less effective, as it encounters strong opposition from the locals in the Sindh and Baluchistan regions, which together make up 44% of Pakistan's total land area. The people’s resistance to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor has reached the extent that local groups have begun targeting Chinese workers and engineers. Incidents involving the murder of Chinese officials and engineers have become increasingly common. Recently, there was an attempted attack on some Japanese engineers at the CPEC project site because they looked like Chinese nationals. This clearly shows the degree of anger and resistance to this project in the region. Therefore, China has been looking for an alternative to both CPEC and the Gwadar port, given that India has already been promoting its Chabahar port as a counter to China in the Persian Gulf region.

Considering the political instability of Pakistan a significant challenge, China, after including the Taliban with the CPEC project, may be considering using the Wakhan Corridor as an alternative to bypass Pakistan’s volatile regions of Sindh and Balochistan, and reach the Persian Gulf via the Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) and Afghanistan. After the Taliban’s successful inclusion in this project, China’s aim of overshadowing Indian influence in the region seems to be working now. Additionally, the construction of the Peshawar-Kabul Highway and other connectivity projects, an extension of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor in Afghanistan, will possibly provide China with direct access to the Middle East Region, the Central Asian Region, the Eastern African Region, the Gulf Region, the European Market, as well as the Indian Ocean through the Arabian Sea.

Although the recent border conflict between Afghanistan and the Taliban was expected to benefit India strategically in the region against Pakistan and China, the recent announcement of the Taliban joining the CPEC has completely disappointed India, while giving an edge to China over Indian influence in the region.

Geopolitical implications for India

As China manages to enhance its economic and strategic influence in Afghanistan and continues to expand the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) along India's northwestern border, India is very likely to face an inevitable challenge of being ‘encircled on two fronts’ - militarily by Pakistan and China, and economically through their increasing regional collaboration. Additionally, India is also facing a geostrategic challenge in the region, especially in the post Israel-Iran conflict, where India, unlike China, maintained strategic silence and chose not to extend its support to either country directly. In the face of India’s increasing strategic dilemma in the region, China’s direct access to the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal through Pakistan and Bangladesh, respectively, will additionally challenge India’s overall maritime security in the region, too.

In terms of security challenges in Kashmir, the deepening ties between the Taliban and Pakistan raise concerns about the possible resurgence of militant networks that could potentially affect the Kashmir valley. Additionally, securing CPEC routes through the Wakhan Corridor of Afghanistan may give Pakistan space to shift its attention and resources toward its eastern border with India, which will undoubtedly help China keep India engaged with its own issues.

As far as China’s political behaviour is concerned, the inclusion of Afghanistan in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is potentially oriented towards cutting India off from essential connectivity networks in Central Asia. While the IMEC project has been partially paralysed by the regional conflict of the Middle East, India's goals, including the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) and the Chabahar Port initiative, are now encountering heightened competition and potential diplomatic challenges from a growing China-led coalition in the region.

In light of the shifting regional power dynamics, the emerging alliance between China, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and the Taliban is likely to pose a significant threat to India's strategic interests in the region. As China is looking forward to filling the void left by Russia (Soviet Union) and the USA, one after the other, in Afghanistan, it has probably managed to trap Bangladesh and Pakistan along with the Taliban within its debt trap policy network. With China offering political support and economic incentives, this strategic grouping has the potential to undermine and erode India's image as a regional stabiliser. As the new strategic alignment of the Taliban complicates the security dynamics in the region, it seems to be undermining India's ability to dictate and influence its own neighbourhood.  Consequently, it is high time for India to play a proactive role in exploring alternative strategies to recalibrate its foreign policy approach, primarily giving greater attention to the Link and Act West Policy (formerly called Look West).

This is an Original Contribution to the SIS Blog

Sanjay Turi is a Doctoral Candidate at the Centre for West Asian Studies (CWAS), School of International Studies(SIS), Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi.