By Prof. (Dr.) Gulshan Sachdeva
Despite being primarily ceremonial, Macron visit highlights the growing camaraderie between India and France amid rising uncertainty in global geopolitics
French President Emmanuel Macron is starting his state visit to India today from Jaipur. He will be the chief guest of 75th Republic Day celebrations in Delhi tomorrow. This is just after Prime Minister Narender Modi’s visit for Bastille Day celebrations in Paris in July and Macron’s attendance at the G20 summit in New Delhi in September.
Despite the visit being likely to be primarily ceremonial, it underscores the deepening bonhomie between India and France amid escalating uncertainty in global geopolitics.
Growing India-France Convergence
Last year, both countries celebrated 25 years of their strategic partnership. There is already a strong institutional mechanism for cooperation in defence, space, civil nuclear, renewables, cyber space, digital technology, counter terrorism, maritime security and the blue economy. Together, they have launched the International Solar Alliance and formed India-France-Australia and India-France-UAE trilaterals.
There is a growing convergence on issues such as reformed and effective multilateralism, international terrorism, Climate Change, sustainable development, and the Indo-Pacific. All of these issues have already been captured under Horizon 2047 Roadmap agreed by both nations in July 2023.
Despite being situated in different geographies and at different stages of economic development, Indian world view seems to have converged with France. France is central to Europe’s economic and security architecture, which is based on European economic integration and trans-Atlantic alliance. However, the core of French foreign policy has been national identity and strategic independence.
Macron’s Challenges
President Macron aims to establish the European Union as a third significant force in global affairs, alongside the United States and China, by fostering strategic autonomy and emphasizing European sovereignty. These views align with India's inclination towards a multipolar world and the pursuit of strategic independence.
Besides, France has now emerged as the second largest exporter of defence equipment to India. 36 Rafale fighter jets have already been delivered. A number of deals including more Rafale jets, submarines, joint development of combat aircraft engines and helicopters are being finalised. The Macron visit may accelerate some of these deals.
At the moment France and Europe are worried about a possible second Trump presidency. Amid conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, coupled with a resurgence of the far right within the country, Macron's leadership in both France and Europe has also seen a diminishing of its earlier shine.
Domestically, he is weakened by not having a majority in parliament. He has also faced criticism for adopting a more lenient stance towards both Russia and China, as well as for his comments on Taiwan. The conflict in Gaza has divided the already polarised French society. In an unfolding situation, the policy makers are struggling to determine a position on the issue.
Ahead of EU elections, Macron has recently reshuffled his cabinet and tightened immigration rules. Macron is also visiting India when the consecration of Ram temple in Ayodhya and India’s shift away from secularism is keenly discussed in French media. The outcome of his India trip will impact his image at home. So the French side would like to see some new defence deals finally announced in Delhi.
Making Macron’s Visit More Substantive
The economic partnership needs some focus. Most large French companies have a presence in India and they have invested about $10 billion in India. Bilateral trade was stuck at about $10-12 billion in recent years. Last year, it reached about $14 billion. We can definitely have much bigger trade with the second largest EU economy. As a key member of the EU. France is keen on an FTA with India. While the seventh round of India-EU FTA negotiations will begin next month, any early breakthrough is unlikely.
Larger professional and student mobility as well as stronger civil society linkages are crucial to bring both countries together. A migration and mobility agreement is already in place and a target of 30,000 Indian students in France by 2030 has been set. While France is keen to attract Indian students and skilled professional, the new immigration rules including student deposits and political mood in France and Europe may not be very conducive for attracting mobility
While India-France partnership is old, the Rafale deal and Indo-Pacific narrative have made a qualitative difference in recent years. Differing perceptions on the Ukraine crisis has not dented ties. While Macron's visit is likely to reaffirm the significance of camaraderie between India and France; announcement of any new initiative or defence deal will add substance to the visit.
Originally Published : The Money Control, 25th January' 2024
Posted on SIS Blog with the Authorisation of the Author
Prof. (Dr.) Gulshan Sachdeva is a Professor, at the Centre for European Studies and Coordinator, at the Jean Monnet Centre of Excellence, at Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, India.