By Dr. Monika Gupta
Introduction
The year 2024 is expected to be a year of possibilities, opportunities and huge geopolitical and geo-economic benefits for India. 2024 not just coincides with India's domestic political churning but also India's ever-significant positioning amidst global geopolitical challenges. As India gears for its 18th Lok Sabha elections in 2024, the Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP) under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi is yet again eyeing a firm electoral victory. This has been boosted against the backdrop of momentous victories for the party in the three major Hindi-speaking states-Chattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan in December 2023. If the BJP comes to power again in 2024, India's Foreign Policy can continue to pick up on the momentum it has achieved since the arrival of PM Modi in 2014. However, in case of any political shifts, which although appear rare, India's Foreign Policy will witness sharp turns and upheavals and could reverse the expected geopolitical benefits that India is aiming at.
Looking at India's foreign policy in 2023, it has been an exceptional year of opportunities and challenges. With India successfully concluding the Presidency of the G20 summit in Delhi to India outrightly shining in sports, technology and space, 2023 has been a great year of opportunities. However, challenges have equally resurfaced from time to time for India's foreign policy in 2023. From India negotiating a balanced stance in the Ukraine-Russia conflict to India's positioning in the Middle- East over the Israel-Palestine conflict that was triggered by Hamas's attack on Israel, Indian Foreign policy has faced the constant brunt of global scrutiny. As these two global conflicts are likely to continue in 2024, it brings with it even greater dynamics of both challenges and opportunities for India's foreign policy. On one hand, India would want to build on the momentum it has picked up in 2023 under the Modi-Biden duo and strengthen its ties with the United States; on the other, India would continue to embark upon touching newer heights in India-Russia relations. However, China's proximity with Russia will remain a cause of concern for India.
In the case of Middle-Eastern conflict, India has strongly condemned the terrorist attack by Hamas on Israel. At the same time, India has sent humanitarian assistance to the people of Palestine affected by the conflict. This is a pattern which will continue in 2024, reiterating India's stronger stance against terrorism and its consistent advocacy for promoting peace and brotherhood in global politics.
India's Foreign Policy vis-a-vis countries due for General Elections in 2024
The year 2024 will witness the world's powerful and influential countries going for general elections, including India, the United States, Russia and a few European countries. The internal political dynamics in these countries and any change within, are likely to have an impact upon their foreign policy approach especially vis-a-vis India. In 2023, India's relations with the United States (US) touched newer heights under the Modi-Biden duo. PM Modi's state visit to the US in June 2023 was historic in terms of the impact it rendered on strengthening the bilateral ties. In 2024, the same is expected to continue owing to mutual vested interests of both countries revolving around trade, defence, innovation, the Indo-Pacific, countering China's influence in the Asian subcontinent, security dynamics, growth of the semi-conductor ecosystem etc. However, the return of Donald Trump to power in the US would impact India-US relations especially in the light of Trump threatening India with a 'reciprocal tax' policy and his anti-immigrant stance.
In Russia, Putin is likely to remain in power due to the support of the state, the media and the majority of the general public. Having said that, India's relations with its 'all-weather friend' Russia will continue to evolve. Closer bilateral ties and enhanced levels of cooperation have been observed between the two countries in 2023 in areas of diplomatic visits, trade and economic growth, technological exchange and culture. The December visit of Foreign Minister Dr. S. Jaishankar to Russia has already set the momentum for 2024.
In addition, 2024 will also likely witness intensification of Cold War 2.0 between the US and China on one hand, and the US and Russia on the other. This would be in light of the changing trends observed recently in the Indo-Pacific, South China Sea, Red Sea and the Ukraine-Russia crisis. Within the Indo-Pacific, issues like high chances of an escalating armed conflict between the US and China over Taiwan, the QUAD entanglement, China's growing outreach and aggressiveness in the region etc. could lead to significant geopolitical tensions. Similarly, the emerging China-Russia-North Korea nexus, the military build-up in the Red Sea and the subsequent interests of the global powers including the US, Russia and China etc. will all contribute towards the escalation of Cold War 2.0. Recently, as a consequence of the ongoing war in Gaza, the role of Iran through its Houthi allies has also intensified in the Red Sea, leading to increased US maritime presence in the region. Thus, the 3 C's of global politics- Conflict, Competition and Cooperation are likely to dominate the foreign policies of countries involved in Cold War 2.0. Against this backdrop, India's Foreign Policy towards these countries will be a closely observed calculated approach.
Within Europe, elections in the United Kingdom (UK) towards the end of 2024 and the elections of the European Parliament in June 2024, would be of major concern to India. In 2024, India will be willing to seal the much awaited Free Trade Agreement with the UK under PM Rishi Sunak who, since his arrival in office, has fostered a closer India-UK ties. Similarly, elections for the European Parliament are expected to bring the dominance of the right-wing which in turn means a tougher stance on immigration and a less favourable approach towards the India-EU Bilateral Trade and Investment Agreement (BTIA).
India's Foreign Policy vis-a-vis neighbouring countries in 2024
With respect to India-China relations, 2023 did not see any major development in relations. Though there was no escalation of border conflicts, there was no detente achieved either. From the Chinese President not attending the G20 summit in Delhi to closer India-US ties, have all impacted Indo-China relations in 2023. Periodic levels of engagements and consultations have been observed between the two countries but more so it revolved around diplomacy and commerce. Can India-China relations go back to where they were prior to the border conflicts of 2019? Can the aggressive outreach of China, particularly within South Asia, be limited in 2024? Can peace, dialogue and diplomacy dominate over competition, conflict and crisis? These are certain questions that are likely to redefine India-China relations in 2024.
Within the South Asian region, India's foreign policy approach vis-a-vis its neighbours will depend a lot upon the internal political and economic dynamics of the South Asian countries. India-Maldives relations experienced a setback in 2023 with the election of a pro-Chinese leader in Maldives and with that 2024 brings greater Chinese influence in India's vicinity and the subsequent consequences that may emerge alongside. The recent cold conflict between India and Maldives, over personal attacks rendered by Maldivian Ministers on Indian PM Narendra Modi in the background of his visit to Lakshadweep, is further aggravating the ties between the two countries.
With respect to Pakistan, elections are due in 2024 and there are huge chances of a coalition government coming to power. This is so because the two major parties- PTI (Tehreek-e-Insaf Pakistan) and PML-N (Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz) face major challenges in terms of PTI's popular leader Imran Khan being in jail and PML-N does not have a favourable public support despite the backing its leader Nawaz Sharif has from the military in Pakistan. Whatever the electoral outcome, India-Pakistan relations will depend upon the approach of the elected leader in Pakistan and how he balances that without affecting his dynamics with Pakistan's military establishment.
The recently concluded elections in Bangladesh saw the return of PM Sheikh Hasina for her fourth consecutive term. Under Ms. Hasina, who hails from the Awami League Party, India-Bangladesh relations have been stable and cordial. Bangladesh is not just a neighbour but India's close strategic partner. The two countries share a long border and have vested mutual interests when it comes to social, economic and security avenues. Infrastructure wise- the road and river connectivity have benefitted both countries. In light of these mutual interests, the return of Ms. Hasina is definitely in India's favour. In 2024, India will be willing to further strengthen this bilateral relationship, thereby ensuring a secured eastern neighbourhood.
2023 for Sri Lanka mostly revolved around grappling with serious economic challenges. India-Sri Lanka bilateral ties towards the end of 2023 have raised hopes of revival especially with respect to the Economic and Technological Cooperation Agreement (ECTA) signed between the two countries. 2024 will witness bilateral relations converging further along these fronts. Meanwhile, relations with Afghanistan are likely to witness slow growth in 2024, as India still grapples to officially deal with the Taliban regime in Kabul.
India's Foreign Policy vis-a-vis Global South in 2024
Looking beyond the zone of global powers, India's outreach in the developing world towards the Global South has been significant. From advocating for and admitting of African Union into the G20 to raising the concerns and challenges faced by the Global South on international platforms, India has worked to bring the voices of these countries to the forefront. In November 2023, India hosted the second virtual 'Voice of the Global Summit' (the first was organised virtually in January 2023) wherein the leaders of the Global South pledged mutual cooperation to deal with some common challenges including post-covid consequences, climate change, food and energy security, inflation etc. Importantly, India's leadership role for the Global South has been noted by the world and with that added responsibility, India in 2024 will have to spearhead the solutions to these notable challenges, alongside advocating "One Earth, One Family and One Future" in all its endeavours.
Conclusion
Having enlisted India's Foreign Policy approaches vis-a-vis different countries of the world, particularly where elections are due in 2024 and with respect to India's neighbourhood, it can be said that India is ready to embark upon a more steady, determined and salient foreign policy. No wonder 'national interest' and 'consistent growth and development' will form the key aspects of India's Foreign Policy, but it is not likely to be an easy ride considering the domestic political confrontations and expected global responsibilities. While entering into the Amrit Kaal, India's Foreign Policy is also likely to take a unique shift towards embracing "Bharat's Foreign Policy" in terms of reaching out to the globalised world by being deeply rooted and intact with its rich traditions, proud culture and ancient heritage.
This Article is an Original Contribution to the SIS Blog
Dr. Monika Gupta is an Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, Deshbandhu College, University of Delhi. She did her PhD from JNU from the Centre for European Studies. She is also a Commonwealth Scholar to the University of London and DAAD recipient to University of Wurzburg, Germany. She has received the prestigious Inspiring Indian Women Award in the British Parliament for being the Outstanding Educational Role Model. She has presented her views on national and global platforms including University of Oxford and Dublin City University, Ireland.