By Prof. (Dr.) Srikanth Kondapalli
President Xi Jinping has repeatedly asserted that unification is China’s “core interest” and it is increasingly seen as likely that he will make an attempt before 2027, the 100th anniversary of the People’s Liberation Army.
When Taiwan’s President-elect Lai Ching-te takes the country’s reins in May, he will inherit the onerous task of planning for the defence of the island against China’s plans to invade it and unify Taiwan with it – but with an intensity and urgency that his predecessors did not face. President Xi Jinping has repeatedly asserted that unification is China’s “core interest” and it is increasingly seen as likely that he will make an attempt before 2027, the 100th anniversary of the People’s Liberation Army. China extensively used coercive diplomatic, military and economic tools to influence the election result.
While Lai needs to address economic stagnation, growing generational divide, income inequality, housing price rise, ageing of the population of his island of 23 million people, uppermost in his mind will be how to counter China’s invasion plans, diplomatic isolation efforts, and economic coercion.
China has become a strategic uncertainty for many countries. Lai especially needs to address China’s ferocious military drills around Taiwan, including live-fire exercises, naval deployments and air incursions.
China’s diplomatic isolation of Taiwan seems to be working, with the latter now recognised by only 12 countries. Nauru switched recognition from Taiwan to China on January 15. “Chequebook diplomacy” threatens to raze through Taiwan’s economic and cultural arrangements with 59 countries. One scenario Taipei faces is of China-imposed trade restrictions and boycotts on not only Taiwanese but also global companies to weaken Taiwan’s economy and break its ties with other countries.
Read more at: https://www.deccanherald.com/opinion/how-will-taiwan-cope-with-china-s-invasion-plans-2867775
Originally Published : Deccan Herald, 28th January' 2024
Posted on SIS Blog with the Authorisation of the Author.
Prof. (Dr.) Srikanth Kondapalli is Dean of School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, India