By Sazia Azgar
Recently US President Donald Trump remarked that, Turkey will “hold the key” to what happens in Syria. Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been an ardent supporter of the anti-Assad Syrian opposition since the Syrian uprisings of 2011 and backed the protesters opposing the Bashar al-Assad regime. In December 2024, the government of Bashar al Assad was toppled by the rebels backed by Ankara, after which Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) took power under the leadership of commander-in-chief of the new administration Ahmad Al Sharaa and President Erdogan pledged full cabinet support to Syria’s new government. Since then relation between Syria and Turkey has been on an upswing, with high-level visits of figures like Syria's new foreign minister, Asaad Al Shaibani, to Turkey on January 15th, and Turkish foreign minister Hakan Fidan recently met Syria's new leader, Ahmad al Shaara, in Damascus. The Turkish flag was raised at the embassy in Damascus, which had reopened after a 12-year hiatus, within a week after former Syrian tyrant Bashar al-Assad's departure from Syria.
Syria in turkey's strategic calculus
On 25 December, Turkey's President, while addressing his Justice and Development, or AK Party’s parliamentary group meeting, said that “Syria’s security and peace might be secondary for others, but we can't have such luxury with a country with which we have a 910km long border.” President Erdogan has time and again emphasized on the creation of stable Syria with national reconciliation and economic development which will enable all Syrian refugees in Turkey to return to their homeland.” This is partly because Turkey is home to 3.6 million registered Syrian refugees – the most in the world – opposition has been accusing the government of mismanaging refugee crisis and put the blame on refugees for Turkey's economic problems. There is significant domestic unrest fueled by growing anti-Syrian sentiments in Turkey which has resulted, in many places, in Syrian riots.
Turkey has been involved militarily along the northern Syria border, where the presence of the People’s Protection Unit (YPG) has been prominent. Turkey regards YPG as an affiliate of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), a group that has fought for secession of the Kurdish region from Turkey to establish an independent Kurdish state, and this conflict has claimed the lives of up to 40,000 people. Hence Turkey has designated it as a “terrorist” group and it remains at the center of the security strategy of Ankara. Turkey already occupies significant parts of Syria after it launched offensives against the YPG, and threatening to launch more attacks against the American-backed YPG. The Turkish government sees the overthrow of the Assad regime as an opportunity to tackle the Kurdish threat to its security. Regarding the YPG, Turkiye is now working with the new Syrian government and wishes to allow the new leadership to resolve the matter.
Another critical security threat for Turkey is the increasing encroachment of Israel into Syrian territory beyond the occupied Golan Heights. Since the fall of the al-Assad regime, Israel has increased its attack on Syria to expand the occupation of Golan Heights, with hundreds of air attacks, tanks, and illegal settlements. Therefore Israel is not only violating Syrian sovereignty and territorial integrity but also posing threats to Turkey’s national security.
Turkey’s approach to rebuild Syria
Turkey is the first country to engage with a new Syrian government after the fall of Assad. The reopening of the Turkish embassy signifies that Turkey is all set to play a crucial role in reconstruction and development post-Assad. Turkey believes that the reconstruction of Syria is essential for the return of 3.6 million Syrian refugees living in Turkey. As one of the biggest economies in the region with a robust construction industry, Turkey is conscious of its ability to restore Syria, which has been devastated in terms of infrastructure, services, and the economy during the past ten years. As Syria is to be rebuilt, Ankara is providing lucrative contracts for a Turkish reconstruction company. Turkey's ministries of transportation, energy, and natural resources have already declared their plans to repair Syria’s roads, airports, energy, and electrical infrastructure. These developments are already evident as Turkish airlines resume flights to Damascus starting from 23 January, after a halt of more than a decade. Turkey’s President Erdogan has offered to help Syria in the formation of a new constitution. Turkey wants to train and modernize the Syrian army.
Challenges and Way Forward
There are many challenges to Turkey’s ambition in Syria as the situation in Syria remains unstable, Turkey's role in the reconstruction of Syria is getting the attention of other contending rival powers in the region. Since Ankara has emerged as the most influential powerbroker in Syria, the deepening of its influence is making some Arab governments uncomfortable. There has always been a rivalry between Turkey and Saudi Arabia for the leadership of the Sunni Muslim world. Some Arab countries like UAE and Egypt are upset with Turkey’s explicit support for Islamist groups. Managing Kurdish autonomy aspirations is also a major challenge for Turkey. Though, HTS has assured that, Syrian grounds will not again be used for launching an attack against Turkey. The Turkish foreign minister remarked that the Kurdish-led armed group YPG will be eliminated.
HTS doesn't want to put all its eggs in one basket. The new government of Syria is following the strategy of getting support from all sides. For instance, Saudi Arabia is also sending humanitarian aid to Syria. During the Assad regime, Syria served as an Iranian foothold in the Arab world. HTS wants to break from Iranian influence not only to come under Turkey’s.
Reports from the Israeli government suggest that Turkey and Israel could be on a collision course in Syria. Israel is backing the YPG against Turkey and Israel’s growing encroachment in Syria is jeopardizing the national security of Turkey. Therefore these geopolitical struggles suggest that Turkey is one of the main actors in Syria, not the dominant one. To have a say in the future of Syria, Turkey needs to control the northern part of Syria, however for this to happen, Turkey will have to make a compromise with the US which has been strengthening YPG. Also, Turkey will have to walk on a tightrope while pursuing its ambitions in Syria without making other regional powers uneasy.
This is an Original Contribution to the SIS Blog.
Saziya Asgar is a 2nd year masters student in Politics (with specialization in international politics), School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi.