By Prof. Gulshan Sachdeva
After brokering a deal in the Middle-East, Beijing is likely to push further its Ukraine peace plan during President Xi Jinping’s expected Moscow visit. If he is successful, it will be another blow for US attempts to contain Chinese influence
Many reports indicate that the Chinese President Xi Jinping is likely to visit Russia for a meeting with his counterpart Vladimir Putin in the coming days. He is also likely to speak with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. In the current volatile geopolitical environment, the significance of the visit cannot be underestimated.
Apart from demonstration of “no limits” partnership between two major geopolitical powers, the visit will be watched in the context of the continuing Ukrainian war. While intense fighting for the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut continues, there are no signs of any serious western diplomatic activity to end the conflict. In fact, the US and its allies are helping Ukraine prepare for a major offensive against Russia in late spring.
China's Peace Moves
In the meanwhile, China has brokered a deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran. The crisis in Ukraine is far more serious. Still, riding on its success in the Middle-East, Beijing may at least try to present itself as a force for peace during Xi’s Moscow visit.
Building on its Global Security Initiative concept paper, it has already presented a twelve-point position on the "political settlement of the Ukraine crisis". Both these documents not only talked about respecting the UN Charter and territorial integrity of all countries but also commitment to "security concerns of all parties".
The plan was not rejected by most Europeans as it demonstrated that the Ukraine war is not just a European crisis. But most of its leaders were cautious. “It is not a peace plan,” the European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen had asserted. “We will look at the principles, of course, but we will look at them against the backdrop that China has taken sides,” she had added further.
The US President Biden almost rejected the Chinese initiative when he said that "I've seen nothing in the plan that would indicate that there is something that would be beneficial to anyone other than Russia, if the Chinese plan were followed."
A More Confident Xi
But the Chinese goal is much beyond the West. It is trying to assert its larger role in the global South, where American leadership is not seen as very effective. Despite close ties with Moscow and rising tensions with the US, Beijing is still trying to be a mediator in the Ukraine war.
During his recent visit to Moscow, China's top diplomat Wang Yi was quoted saying that "the Chinese side will, as in the past, firmly adhere to an objective and impartial position and play a constructive role in the political settlement of the crisis," He also mentioned that China-Russia relations are “not directed against any third country”.
After securing an unprecedented third term presidency, Xi Jinping is full of confidence. Now he may be keen to use his skills to push further for Chinese geopolitical, diplomatic and economic interests abroad. If he is able to achieve even a very modest success, it will help China establish itself as a leading diplomatic force, continue to maintain stable ties with Russia, may repair relations with Europe and provide many new economic opportunities. Stability in global markets is very important for the reopened Chinese economy now.
Nosediving China-US Ties
However, achieving even a limited ceasefire agreement may not be easy. From a Western perspective, a ceasefire means surrendering Ukrainian occupied territory to Russia for an unforeseeable future. In the meanwhile, China-US verbal exchanges are also intensifying.
"Why does the US talk at lengths about respecting sovereignty and territorial integrity on Ukraine, while disrespecting China's sovereignty and territorial integrity on the Taiwan question? Why does the US ask China not to provide weapons to Russia, while it keeps selling arms to Taiwan? the new Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang asserted recently.
To counter the US moves in the Indo-Pacific, a Maritime Security Belt trilateral naval exercise between Russia, China and Iran in the area of Chabahar port in Iran is underway. Iran and Saudi Arabia’s membership in the BRICS will also be formally discussed in the grouping this year. The move to expand BRICS was initiated under the Chinese presidency last year.
The Chinese Foreign Minister was very clear when he said that the “more unstable the world becomes, the more imperative it is for China and Russia to steadily advance their relations”. With $190 billion bilateral trade in 2022, Russia is now in the list of China’s top ten trading partners. Unlike increasing India-Russia trade, which is mainly based on discounted oil imports, China has also exported goods worth $76 billion to Russia. Due to western sanctions, Russians are buying more Chinese electronics and cars.
Although President Xi’s expected Moscow visit has the potential to improve China’s standing in a shifting global order, it can also intensify global geopolitical tensions.
Originally published : Money Control, on 17th March, 2023
Posted in SIS Blog with the authorisation of the Author.
Prof. Dr. Gulshan Sachdeva is Professor at the Centre for European Studies and Coordinator, Jean Monnet Centre of Excellence, Jawaharlal Nehru University.