By Abhishek Khajuria
There is a possibility that Johnson and Sunak are able to steer the country out of the present crisis and improve their political fortunes. But the mood at present is pessimistic.
British PM Boris Johnson has survived the no-confidence motion brought against him by the lawmakers of his own Conservative party in the intra-party vote. However, it can be said that this success might not be a durable one for Johnson as the road till the next elections is a tough one (if stays at helm till then).
Of the 359 Conservative MPs in the Commons, 211 voted in Johnson’s favour in the secret ballot while 148 were and remain in opposition. On the face of it, it might look like a comfortable victory for him. But we need to get into the finer details of it, and it will become clear how dire difficult the situation for Johnson is. One, only 59% of his Tories now support him. It is significantly less than what former PMs Theresa May and Margaret Thatcher got in their respective confidence votes. Even then, both resigned in the ensuing months. Two out of the 648 MPs in the Commons (total number is 650 with 2 up for bye-elections in the coming weeks where the Conservatives are projected to lose), Johnson is only supported by 32.5% of members. This is significantly less than the number he won in the election of 2019.
The numbers outlined above indicate a clear question of moral dilemma for the leader to continue in office after the vote has weakened his authority. But as Johnson has clarified previously, he won’t be relinquishing office. This statement is further cemented by the fact that the PM refused to resign when the partygate scandal emerged. His assertion of ‘victory’ in the no-confidence vote further adds to the above statement. It is worth highlighting here that as per the Conservative party rules, he is now immune from a leadership challenge for the next 12 months. However, this rule is subject to a change, which means that the Prime Minister’s path is still difficult.
All this adds to the already precarious condition in the UK, which has emerged as a divided country in the wake of Brexit with resurgent Scottish nationalism and fears of a re-emergence of a pre-1998 situation in Northern Ireland (a political deadlock at present); added to it the severely wounded economy due to the pandemic after which the UK now faces a cost-of-living crisis today. Inflationary pressures are on and household spending has squeezed. The British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) has warned that the “UK economy will grind to a halt and then shrink”. The government is struggling to find responses to the crisis, and the situation remains precarious.
Returning to the political scenario, two things need to be looked at.
One, if Johnson resigns as has previously happened in the cases of Margaret Thatcher and Theresa May, the questions of succession would come up. Rishi Sunak, the head of the Treasury, was the favourite until recently, but partygate and his wife’s tax avoidance issues have harmed his chances. Others like Liz Truss and Sajid Javid are also seen as contenders. But there is no clear-cut alternative to the PM at the moment. His possible resignation might lead to an uncertain situation over the Irish question due to Brexit once again. Then, if the PM ultimately stays on till the next election scheduled in late 2024, what effect it has on the Conservatives remains to be seen. There is a possibility that he and Sunak are able to steer the country out of the present crisis and improve their political fortunes. But the mood at present is pessimistic.
Two, how much of an alternative does the opposition provide. After a humiliating defeat in 2019, it still seems a long way back for Labour. In that election, it lost its traditional strongholds in the West Midlands, which it had not conceded for more than 30 years. It has also not completely recovered from the antisemitism issues (the party as a whole was accused of Antisemitism), which resulted in the suspension of the previous leader Jeremy Corbyn. Though there is some optimism in labour circles after victories in the recent local elections, nothing concrete can be predicted yet. A silver lining is for Labour though is leader Keir Starmer leading Johnson in opinion polls.
In the ultimate analysis, it is safe to say that there are many possible scenarios. Johnson emerging winner is one. Others include a new leader curing the Tories or the party totally losing plot and Labour providing an alternative. But one thing is for sure, the future is a tough one for the UK with the political uncertainty coinciding with the cost-of-living crisis. Still, for the time being, it is upon Mr. Johnson to lead a divided country out of its travails which continue to be punctuated by his own.
Abhishek Khajuria is a PhD Candidate at the Centre for European Studies, School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University.