By Dr. Ankita Dutta
The opening of accession talks with Ukraine and Moldova appears to be a key agenda item for the EU leadership during their annual Summit in December 2023. Enlargement has been a critical issue for the member states with opinions ranging from “yes to not yet to outright no”. With the EU leadership agreeing to begin formal membership talks with Ukraine and Moldova, and to grant candidate status to Georgia - the process of enlargement is at the forefront again.
The EU had defined the criteria for the inclusion of new members in 1993. The Copenhagen criteria laid out three critical conditions to be fulfilled by the candidate country – ”first is the political criteria which included stability of institutions, democracy, rule of law, human rights and respect for and protection of minorities; second was economic criteria which required a functioning market economy and the capacity to cope with competition and market forces; and third was administrative and institutional capacity to effectively implement this Acquis and ability to take on the obligations of membership”. Along with this emphasis was also laid on the bloc’s ‘capacity for absorption of new member, while maintaining the momentum of European integration’ and that the bloc reserves the right to decide when the candidate has met the criteria and the Union was ready to accept the new member.
So far, ten countries in the EU’s neighbourhood are either official or potential candidates for accession to the EU, including seven Western Balkans states - with the process beginning as early as 2003 (at the Thessaloniki summit where the EU committed towards integration of the Western Balkan countries within its structures). However, the Ukraine crisis brought with it a sense of urgency into this process of approving new member states as the EU worked towards fortifying its own eastern borders. With the outbreak of conflict in Ukraine, Kiev signed the application for the EU membership on 28 February 2022, which was followed by Moldova and Georgia submitting their respective applications. In June 2022, the EU Council granted both Ukraine and Moldova status of candidate country, while recognising the European perspectives of Georgia. The process of affirmation as among fastest measures taken by the EU member states.
However, it raised certain critical questions over the fact that there were several other countries which have been waiting in sidelines for the process to pick up pace and if there was no conflict, was there any question that Kiev would have received the candidate status? This is primarily because there were two key roadblocks for Ukraine in its quest for membership -- first, territorial conflict with Russia - with Moscow annexing Crimea and occupying parts of Donbas along with lack of implementation of Minsk agreement by both Kiev and Moscow; and second was the poor governance structures and rampant corruption in Ukraine. Therefore, the EU needs to assess whether the conflict and the granting of candidate status to Ukraine as well Moldova has somewhat improved the situation with respect of territorial integrity or issues of governance. No doubt, efforts have been put by both countries to meet the EU criteria, however, the question is are they enough to open the accession talks.
Moreover, Europeans remain divided on the benefits of EU enlargement and have mixed feelings towards the potential admission of Ukraine or of any other country. According to the EU Barometer Survey of Spring 2023 of Spring 2023, while there is an overall support for the EU enlargement (53%) - there are substantial divisions among the member states. The prevailing view in Austria (60%), Germany (49%), France (55%) is that the EU should not add new members any time soon, while there is widespread support for enlargement in Poland (67%) and Lithuania (77%). On the subject of Ukraine’s accession - according to the ECFR Polls - while the Europeans are open to the idea of Ukraine joining the EU, there are concerns relating to the security and economic impact of accession - “45% believe that Ukraine joining the EU would have a ‘negative impact’ on the security of the EU, against 25% who see it as having a ‘positive impact’ and 39% believe Ukraine’s accession would have a ‘negative impact’ on the security of their country – while only 24% expect a ‘positive impact’.”
While the public opinion represents the fluctuations on the issue - there are also political concerns over possible integration of Ukraine - whose GDP is far below the EU’s smallest economies. This has raised concerns among the member states over the potential destabilisation of the Union budgetary structures as well as many member states becoming net contributors from net beneficiaries. While Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban had earlier expressed reservation on the accession talks for Ukraine raising concerns over its the issue, the way in which the decision was reached was interesting. The Hungarian Prime Minister walked out of the room - thereby voluntarily giving up his vote, so that the decision could be taken unanimously. However, this did not stop him from criticising the agreement adding that “Hungary did not want to be part of this bad decision”
Herein lies the paradox of the situation - while the Western Balkans have waited for over a decade for the accession process to move effectively, Ukraine’s progress towards accession has created negative ripples within the region. The delays and vetoes on the part of the EU and its member states has undermined the Union’s credibility in the region. While, the Western Balkan countries, with their years of reforms and agenda-setting, have been unable to sway the EU to move forward, on the other hand with Ukraine, there appears to be a sense of urgency to move forward. This disillusionment was very much visible in the Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama’s statement that “the Ukraine example shows that war can accelerate membership”. This dichotomy has further led the Western Balkan countries to question the enlargement process as well as the political will and preparedness within the EU to support them.
This Article is an original contribution to the SIS Blog.
Dr. Ankita Dutta is Assistant Professor at the Centre for European Studies, School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, India.