By Prof. Gulshan Sachdeva
A decisive victory for either side is unlikely. The Ukrainian counteroffensive is likely to be followed by a renewed diplomatic engagement to end the stalemate. A few peace initiatives are taking shape. A resolution before the G20 summit in Delhi will be immensely helpful for India
The war in Ukraine has entered another crucial phase. There are reports indicating that finally Ukraine has started its much talked about counteroffensive. The Russian President Vladimir Putin has acknowledged the offensive and claimed that “Ukrainian military has suffered far heavier casualties than the “classic” three-to-one ratio often expected during an offensive”. Now Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has also confirmed that counteroffensive actions are underway.
Many western reports indicate that Ukrainian forces faced stiff resistance and suffered losses. Despite saying that the “counteroffensive attempts that have been made so far failed”, President Putin has not downplayed the challenge and acknowledged that “the offensive potential of Kiev's regime is still there”.
No Decisive Gains
Since June 4, Ukraine has conducted counteroffensive operations in at least four sectors (Bakhmut, Luhansk Oblast near Bilohorivka, Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia Oblast border and western Zaporizhzhia Oblast) with different outcomes. So far, Ukrainian frontal attacks against well prepared Russian defensive positions have not been very successful. Some reports show damaged Ukrainian military equipment provided by the West. But things may change as this is just the beginning of the counteroffensive.
In the meanwhile, Russian missile and drone strikes on many Ukrainian cities continue. Moscow will also start deploying tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus in July 2023. The United States says that Iran is also helping Russia in building a drone factory near Moscow for the Ukraine war. French President Emmanuel Macron has urged Iran to stop supplying drones to Moscow as they create “serious security and humanitarian consequences”.
Earlier, thousands of people were evacuated when the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant dam on Dnipro River in Kherson region was damaged. Both Russia and Ukraine have blamed each other for the damage. The dam provided cooling water to Europe’s largest nuclear power station at Zaporizhzhia. It is also one of the main sources of water to the Crimean Peninsula, which Moscow annexed in 2014. Facing flooding threats, the last operating reactor of the Zaporizhzhia plant has also been shut down. Five of the six reactors were already under cold shutdown.
West’s Commitment To Ukraine
After fifteen months, it is becoming clear that a decisive victory by either side is unlikely. Limited gains by either side will also not change the broader geopolitical scenario. However, apart from immediate military support to Ukraine, the Western endgame is not very clear. Through counteroffensive, no one expects that Ukraine will achieve all its objectives, which means liberating all areas occupied by Russia. But if Ukraine struggles in this counteroffensive, it will impact Western strategy towards Ukraine.
Although the west would like a “strategic defeat” of Russia, many in Europe may not like to commit themselves for a multi-year war support. They are now hoping for some Ukrainian military gains to destabilise Putin’s war calculations. So, results of the Ukrainian counteroffensive propped up by western military equipment, training and intelligence support could lead to some clarity about their endgame.
Recently at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, the US Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin mentioned that there is uncertainty in war but "our goal has been to provide them [Ukrainians] with the capability so that they have an opportunity to be successful".
Despite all the military support to Ukraine, NATO membership is still out of question at the moment. The forthcoming NATO summit at Vilnius in July may discuss some “security arrangements” for Ukraine. Despite the membership rhetoric, however, most western leaders are likely to talk about arms deliveries and security “assurances” rather than security “guarantees”.
Diplomacy Offers Hope
Although it is too early to conclude anything, the counteroffensive may not radically change the existing stalemate. Still, results of the counteroffensive may allow some renewed diplomatic activities. The German chancellor Olaf Scholz has already indicated that he plans to talk to President Putin soon so that the conflict can be prevented from escalating. But he asserts that borders in Europe must not be moved by force and negotiations are possible only after withdrawals of Russian troops from Ukraine.
To end the war, an African peace delegation consisting of diplomats from Uganda, South Africa, Congo, Senegal, Zambia and Egypt will be visiting Russia and Ukraine soon. Both China and India have supported this initiative.
Despite not naming and condemning Russia, so far New Delhi has managed its ties with the US and European powers reasonably well. However, the Ukraine war has already overshadowed some key G20 meetings and may upset the main summit in September. Any diplomatic move towards resolving the Ukraine conflict in the coming weeks may help India in finding an acceptable language for the G20 summit communique.
Originally Published : Money Control, on 12th, June, 2023
Posted in SIS Blog with the authorization of the author.
Prof. Gulshan Sachdeva is Professor at the Centre for European Studies and Coordinator, Jean Monnet Centre of Excellence, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, India