By Srijan Sharma
The world order has witnessed three strategic shocks- first is the COVID-19 pandemic; second US unceremonious exit from Afghanistan leading to Talibanization of Afghanistan; and third is the Russia Ukraine War. However, when we look around India, we find that India is in tight position in battling and strategically balancing in these strategic shocks. The situation gets more complicated when India faced a new strategic shock of managing disordered affairs of her neighbors in the South Asian region and therefore, a discussion on India’s strategic environment deserves merit.
Internal Strategic Environment
Since last two years, India’s internal strategic environment has witnessed spinning changes. The two years went in battling and reviving from the devastating COVID waves. The aftermath of the waves knocked the doors of economic pressure affecting India’s internal environment. Apart from non-traditional threats, the traditional threats have vigorously evolved. Since past few decades while computing India’s internal strategic environment only traditional threats were considered as sole component, but in recent times civil society has assumed a special mention in India’s internal strategic environment.
COVID Pandemic
First the COVID claimed thousands of lives, made people homeless and jobless. Second the economic pressure- India witnessed inflation pressure and price pressures during COVID times. Though India is recalibrating and at least able to ensure a steady mark for its economy. Thus, putting civil society under pressure due to COVID and economic factor.
Civil Society
Chanakya stressed on four dangers to national security – one external abetment of external origin and internal abetment of internal origin. Based on this there is consistent threat on the societal cohesiveness of the Indian state. Due to variety of reasons and external abetments of external origin that have exploited the societal fault lines. India witnessed some controversial events which disturbed India’s internal environment- Farmers Agitation, CAA riots etc. This opened a new box of emerging threat to India’s internal strategic environment i.e., psychological warfare where hostile subverted actors try to target and destabilize Indian civil society. Perhaps, that’s why last year the National Security Advisor (NSA) in passing out parade of IPS probationers has said that “Civil Society is New Theater of Warfare". In totality one cannot shut eyes from the fact after 2019 India’s internal strategic environment has been bulldozed with intertwining of traditional and non-traditional threats involving the civil society factor which is going to complicate India’s internal strategic environment.
External Strategic Environment
As mentioned above that three strategic shocks and the fourth one sums up the present external strategic environment for India where on one hand geopolitical uncertainty is increasing and on the other hand India is navigating in troubled waters of geopolitical realignment using its strategic autonomy focused on maximizing and protecting her interests. However, one may argue that the strategic autonomy comes under a strong pressure when we see adversarial maneuvering of hostile neighbors- China’s charm offensive through CPEC and BRI in South Asia embracing Pakistan, Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Myanmar complimented by growing Pakistan-China axis where Pakistan is assuming the role of China’s second tool of deterrence against India. Therefore, in the present tight situation India’s aspirations of strategic rise are guided by strategic autonomy. Apart from challenges, India sees brewing opportunities in Eurasia and Indo Pacific besides, seeing them reeling under strategic uncertainty.
The limited interests West and Russia in Central Asia after Afghanistan episode had given regional power a considerable space to weigh options in the region. However, with Russia-Ukraine episode it has been argued that Russia is coming back in its neighborhood using regional power as springboard to fill the strategic vacuum. For India it is needles to mention that India has vast interests in the resource rich region as postulated by Heartland theory and in the pursuance of the same India has been carving out strategies through Iran by sharing room in regional initiative backed up by nurturing close ties with Central Asian countries- NSA level meet In November 2021 and choosing Central Asian Presidents as Republic Day chief guest are also steps in making India and Central Asian connect closer and stronger. However, a counter perspective is that India’s connect central Asian policy with Russia is currently facing a limitation due to heavy sanctions on Russia but operationalization of International North South Transport Corridor has revived some hopes for India’s connect central Asian policy. On the other hand, Iran is under pressure from India’s key strategic partners Israel and US on its nuclear issue and therefore in such scenario India-Iran relations would be tested. But what remains a Eurasian challenge for India is the Strategic alignment of China Russia-Iran and Turkey-Pakistan. Deft diplomacy in blocking Islamic bloc of Turkey-Pakistan and calculatedly managing relations with Iran Russia to keep Chinese influence at bay are some options. India must realize that the geopolitics of trade and connectivity would form the competition base for India’s connect Central Asia policy in coming years. Therefore, India must keep paddling between Iran and Central Asian leaders to gain an all-exclusive access to Central Asian region and further reduce dependence on Russia.
Down to Pacific, India is assuming significant importance in the Indo Pacific region both military and diplomatically. It has been argued that US sees India as strategic balancer in the region in countering Chinese hegemonic rise in the region. Further the status of strategic balancer would provide India plethora of opportunities in maximizing sphere of influence in maritime domain. However, a counter argument comes in when Indo Pacific region gets referred as strategic competitive region. With Sino-Russia axis coming into play and Taiwan coming under threat would eventually put India under intense pressure of managing Indo Pacific affairs and countering China. Though Australia is an option for US but Australian Naval architecture still needs improvement. Considering this India has been in center for which India needs to vector the concert of other key Indo Pacific players and middle level powers for ensuring stability in the region.
Srijan Sharma is working as an Research Analyst at India's oldest and prestigious national security and strategic Think Tank United Service Institution Of India (USI). Views are personal.
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