Dr. Aparajita Kashyap
The build-up to the election had been dominated by problems like soaring poverty in one of the least developed countries of South America, rampant social inequality and neglect of the indigenous groups and informal labourers
President Mario Abdo Benitez, will pass over the mantle to Santiago Peñain a governmental system where the Presidential term of five years is non-extendable. One among the political parties is the Conservative Partido Colorado (PC) or the Colorado Party which has dominated politics in the landlocked South American country for nearly seven decades since the 1950s. Santiago Peña, 44 who represented this party in the country’s presidential election on Sunday, is an economist and former finance minister. The Party in opposition is the Authentic Liberal Radical Party (PLRA), a left-of-center Party which has held power for only one term. The face of this party was a lawyer Efrain Alegre who was leading the Concertacion, the centre-left coalition that has united to defeat the Colorado Party. Peñascored a big win and secured 43 percent of the vote to 27.5 percent that Alegre could garner even though the exit polls had predicted a win for the latter. Peña’s win has ostensibly sent two signals- successful tightening of the conservative Colorado Party’s political grip in the country and defusing fears about the ending of diplomatic ties with Taiwan.
The build-up to the election had been dominated by problems like soaring poverty in one of the least developed countries of South America, rampant social inequality and neglect of the indigenous groups and informal labourers. Corruption continues to plague Paraguay which is ranked 137 out of 180 countries on Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index. To corroborate this, former President Horacio Cartes, one of Paraguay’s wealthiest and most powerful men, was accused of corruption and drug trafficking by the USA. Alegre had drawn an analogy between Cartesian and Pablo Escobar and had stated that Santiago Peña was his right hand man.
The outcome of Paraguayan elections has defied the recent anti-incumbency trend in Latin American elections. The reasons for Peña’s victory could have been the divided opposition (PayoCubas, the candidate of the National Crusade, with 22.92 percent had cut into Alegre’s vote bank), a massive incumbency advantage, a formidable political machinery and the asymmetrical position of a single party in a state. Peña used a classic conservative campaign focused on issues such as crime, drugs and opposition to the legalization of abortion, usually popular concerns in most Latin American countries.
The landlocked country is the last bastion in South America to still recognize Taiwan’s Presidency and is one of the 13 nations that maintain formal diplomatic ties withit.The Colorado Party’s strong alliance with Taiwan dates back to Paraguay’s former right-wing dictator Alfredo Stroessner, who ruled between 1954 and 1989, who saw a natural ally in anti-communist Chiang Kai-shek, the authoritarian ruler of Taiwan. In fact, Stroessner built a statue of Kai-shek in the capital after the two countries began diplomatic relations.In 2010, Paraguay’s President Fernando Lugo, credited with breaking the continuous rule of Colorado Party rule had floated the idea of establishing diplomatic relations with China.The other diplomatic backlash that Peñamay face relates to the decision to move Paraguay’s embassy in Israel to Jerusalem from Tel Aviv.Paraguay moved its embassy to Jerusalem in 2018 under Cartes but reversed its decision and relocated to its original location in Tel Aviv.The president-elect has also affirmed his intention to re-establish relations with Venezuela.
Fiscal deficit, deficiencies in the health and education systems, the continued impacts of COVID-19 pandemic would remain major challenges for the new presidency. Diversification from the agricultural sector would be an expectation from this government. He would also have to deal with the rising pressures from soy and beef producers to drop associations with Taiwan in favour of China and its huge markets.
Convergences between Colorado Party and PLRA emanate from the two being socially conservative, defending strong anti-abortion and anti-gay marriage stances in an overwhelmingly Catholic nation.
Implications for India
Paraguay is the one country in the region that has been able to keep China out and for this reason, India can use this as an opportunity to become Paraguay’s strategic partner. Collaboration in the space sector, especially in an effort to boost its space program at a low cost can have huge potential. The fact that as part of its Vaccine Maitri programme, India supplied it with Covaxin, at a time when the country was tempted by Chinese offers of a vaccine, can be used to leverage the ties. To further the cooperations, similar visions and stands on issues like the agreement to cooperate to deal with terrorism, combating the threats of climate change and global warming, or concerns with WTO rules would be the drivers. India and Paraguay have resonated in unison on the need for restructuring the United Nations and the move towards renewable sources of energy (Paraguay and India are signatories to the International Solar Alliance), these could become areas with the potential for furthering the bilateral relations.
Originally published : Financial Express, on May, 3, 2023
Posted in SIS Blog with the authorization of the author.
Dr. Aprajita Kashyap is Assistant Professor at the Centre for Canadian,US & Latin American Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, India