By Shreya Nautiyal
The Indo Pacific region stands at the crossroads of strategic rivalries, geopolitical tensions, economic dynamism and maritime conflicts - making security a paramount concern. The expanse stretches from the vast Indian Ocean to the Western Pacific Ocean, encompassing diverse nations with varied interests and power structures. Hence, preserving peace and stability in this area is fraught with difficulties. At the heart of the security issues in the region lies the maritime conflicts and territorial disputes in the South China Sea due to overlapping claims made by China, Taiwan, Philippines, Malaysia, Vietnam and Brunei. China’s sweeping claims of sovereignty over the sea—and the sea’s estimated 11 billion barrels of untapped oil and 190 trillion cubic feet of natural gas—have antagonised competing claimants Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Vietnam. It is feared that these instances of maritime disputes might escalate to armed confrontation, which would endanger the freedom of navigation, crucial for international commerce. As per a report by Centre for Strategic and International Studies,‘80% of global trade by volume and 70% by value is transported by the sea route, with around 60% of it passing through Asia and one third of global shipping moving through the South China Sea’, thereby making the maritime zone a hotspot of emerging conflicts in the Indo Pacific Region. Moreover, the South China Sea also serves as an extensive fishing ground for the neighbouring countries offering essential sustenance and food security for the inhabitants of the region.
China’s assertive claims especially with regard to the self proclaimed ‘nine-dash line’ overlaps with the exclusive economic zones (EEZs) of the region which leads to the never ending territorial and maritime disputes as well as tensions in the region. In particular, the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) disregards the Nine-Dash Line - a focal point of contention. Competing territorial claims give rise to dilemma where China claims the greatest area of the sea based on historical records, while other nations make their own claims based on historical presence and international law. The militarisation of the disputed areas, instances of maritime harassment of the island nations, and the engagement of other countries like the United States—which defends freedom of navigation and opposes any attempts to change the status quo through coercion or force—all contribute to the complexity of this convoluted situation.
Concerted attempts to settle the disputes
Numerous attempts to ensure that stability in the maritime region is maintained have been through diplomacy, legal suits and diplomatic conferences . China prefers bilateral negotiations with the other parties. But many of its neighbours argue that China's relative size and clout give it an unfair advantage. Nevertheless, the ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) countries together with China have had copious dialogues in an attempt to establish a code of conduct that can reduce chances of any conflict in the near future. The legal dispute over territorial sovereignty reached its peak with the Philippine – China confrontation that brought China before the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) in 2016. PCA decided in favour of Philippine and dismissed Chinese claims based on the ‘nine-dash line’. However, China refused the verdict stating that it does not accept the jurisdiction of the said tribunal and was not a party to it. This has further exacerbated the issue. However, the United States and the European Union, among other actors have advocated for freedom of navigation and adherence to principles of international law, thus strengthening the diplomatic pressures towards seeking a peaceful settlement. Despite that, these efforts have not yet yielded the desired results in the pursuit of a sustainable solution to the conflict as it entails factors such as overlapping claims by the stakeholders, strategic interests and sovereignty of nation states among others factors.
Path ahead
In order to manage and solve these geopolitical and strategic issues in the south china sea the following measures need to be taken by the international community. To start with, political actions coupled with compliance with the international law must be the top-notch priorities for all the neighbouring countries to steer through this volatile maritime region by providing a roadmap, especially in regards with the international protocols especially the UNCLOS. Secondly, code of conduct with comprehensive guidelines and legal force could contribute to conflicts’ resolution and stimulate the initiatives, creating more trust, if the problem of dispute resolution and compliance check is taken care of. Moreover, in order to prevent further escalation in the future and ensure stability and development of the South China Sea region, it is important to encourage dialogue, build trust, and participate in confidence and cooperation building measures at both bilateral and multilateral levels. Thirdly, we may consider the concept of territorial national parks in the South China Sea, the creation of protected zones or Maritime Peace Parks, where they may be designated for purposes that are neutral, such as research, conservation and occasional ecotourism as may be required. Finally, we cannot overlook the conservation measures put in place to maintain the marine ecosystem, such as measures to curb illicit fishing, pollution, and ensure conservation of the biodiversity. Hence, it becomes imperative for the parties involved to remain committed to the process of diplomacy and refrain from the use of force in an effort to restore order in this region of significant importance for global strategizing.
This Article is an Original Contribution to the SIS Blog.
Shreya Nautiyal is a student of M.A. IRAS (2022-24). Her core areas of interest includes Europe and Eurasia, Arctic and the Indo-Pacific with themes encompassing Security, Society and Transnational Terrorism.