By Pratik Mall
Hungary, a country in Eastern Europe, has come full circle from autocracy during the Cold War period to democracy in the post-communist world post the fall of the USSR and the end of the Cold War again back to autocracy under its current president, Victor Orban. At a broader level, Hungary is not a stand-alone case of this process of democratic backsliding. Still, it represents a more significant trend currently at play in different world geographies and more so in post-communist space. Hungary's democratic erosion has generated heated debates within the EU parliament. A recent non-binding but highly symbolic report branded Hungary as a "hybrid regime of electoral autocracy" which could no longer be considered a fully functional democracy. Hungary's transition from a once full-fledged and flourishing democracy which led to its inclusion into the European Union, to a currently flawed and fragile status is telling of a much broader and fundamental structural phenomenon at play. The Covid pandemic has only intensified the capture of the already pliable and weak democratic institutions. It has exposed the pitfalls of western liberal hegemony, so triumphantly claimed by Francis Fukuyama as the "most credible game in town" in the backdrop of the end of the Cold War.
Theoretical Frameworks
The degeneration of Hungary's liberal democratic credentials, which reached its peak at the turn of the 21st century, into an illiberal authoritarian and populist regime sparked significant concerns about democratic regression. Noted Political Scientist Samuel P Huntington's conceptual framework of the ebb and flow of democracies, which he explained so eloquently through his waves of democracies followed by reverse waves, serves as a critical theoretical tool to make sense of the more extensive process at work. One of the vital indicators of the decline pointed out by the EU parliament has been the regular and timely conduct of multiparty elections but with a simultaneous subversion of democratic norms and standards to unfairly benefit the ruling party. In essence, the conduct of elections could be called reasonably free but not at all fair. Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt, in their seminal book "How democracies die", have tried to explain the phenomenon of subversion of democracy by elected leaders after coming to power through tactics like constitutional hardball and legal court-packing schemes to cement their power. By employing these critical theoretical concepts, one can better grasp the gravity of the process at play undermining democracy irreparably in Hungary. The method of democratic backsliding in Hungary is so slow and subtle that it is difficult to pinpoint one particular event or period when it all began. It has been an incremental process rather than a revolutionary one. Ozan Varol's concept of "stealth authoritarianism" is essential to deciphering the modus operandi of Hungary's authoritarian leader and party. They have used all the legitimate legal means to achieve anti-democratic ends by camouflaging anti-democratic practices under the garb of law.
The Personality Factor
Of all the other factors, the personality factor stands out as the most important in testing the resilience of democratic experiments in Hungary. The decline of democracy in Hungary began to unfold after the great economic meltdown post the global financial collapse of 2008. It gained even more steam with the victory of the Fidesz party and the installation of its leader Viktor Orban as Hungary's Prime Minister. The undermining of democracy began with a deliberate and systemic assault on democratic institutions, democratic practices, norms and standards.
Forbearance, or the concept of self-restraint, is considered an essential pillar of democracy. Viktor Orban's administration, since its onset, has epitomized the complete disregard for political forbearance in its conduct. The constitution has been manipulated, and its various components were rewritten in a concerted attempt to amass unbridled power for himself and the party. Orban has packed the courts with his loyalist and has gerrymandered the parliamentary districts to break up the anti-Fidesz vote to retain his hegemonic position. This has been done as a classic example of stealth authoritarianism and through constitutional hardball to avoid questioning on purely legal grounds.
The unprecedented Covid crisis gave the Orban government a golden opportunity to further tighten the stranglehold over government machinery. The covid law empowered him with unfettered powers to rule the country indefinitely by decree even as the government gagged the media, increased the propaganda campaigns against feminism, withdrew financial resources from local administrations and placed state companies under partial military rule. The gross misuse of a law penalizing fake news against political opponents speaks volumes about the lack of mutual tolerance, which lies at the heart of a genuinely democratic regime. Notwithstanding the above trends, however, the main point of contestation in Hungarian politics remains that of identity politics.
Assault on free media has been another glaring example of Hungary's slow but quite pervasive strangulation of democracy. Since 2017, over 90 per cent of media outlets in Hungary have been owned by Fidesz or Fidesz allies. This brazen attempt has obscured the line between party, government and the state. Orban administration has misused media as a critical tool to silence opposition and advance its propaganda.
The creation of fake political parties by the party has been yet another tactic adopted to destroy democracy in Hungary. These parties have been created solely to break up the electorates. In addition, the voter tourism law passage is yet another example of how the game rules have been distorted, and Hungary has slipped into a one-person one-party rule.
Hungary has become a textbook example of how a democratically elected leader has misused the legal provisions to subvert and hijack democracy. The downgrading of Hungary to a "partly free country" in the freedom house report noted that Hungary was the first hybrid regime in Europe and could no longer be considered a functional democracy.
Debates Within The EU
Much debate and discussion have ensued regarding membership of Hungary within the EU. EU parliament members have discussed the degradation of the status of Hungary, primarily since the freedom house report, which served as an eye-opener. A host of draconian laws that curtailed citizen's fundamental civic liberties, including the freedom of expression and media freedom, coupled with anti-immigrants, asylum seekers and anti-LQBTQI policies, has led to significant furore about Hungary's continuing as an EU member. There has been a proposal to invoke article 7 of the Lisbon treaty since Hungary has breached the EU'S fundamental values of freedom, democracy, equality and the rule of law. However, according to experts, Article 7 is toothless since it requires the unanimous support of all members to come into effect to deprive Hungary of its voting rights in the parliament. In this case, it is guaranteed that Poland will back Hungary.
Interestingly, it is not the first time that democracy in Hungary has been questioned under Viktor Orban's populist authoritarian regime. Earlier in 2018, a majority of EU parliament members had voted to determine that Hungary was at risk of breaching the foundational values of the EU enshrined in article 2 of the Lisbon treaty.
The 2022 resolutions assume even greater significance in the wake of Russia Ukraine war as Hungary has openly supported Russia, and prime minister Orban is an ally of Vladimir Putin. Regarding the EU voluntarily lowering natural gas usage by 15%, Hungary was one of the only two countries, along with Poland, that opposed this move. Members of the EP made three key recommendations to the EU commission. Firstly, it asked the European Commission to make the approval of Hungary's recovery and resilience recovery programme contingent upon its compliance with the relevant European semester recommendations and implementations of all relevant judgements of the EU court of justice and EU court of human rights. secondly, recommended for a more rigorous application of the Common Provisions Regulation and the Financial Regulation to contain the misuse of EU funds for political motives. Thirdly, it recommended excluding the cohesion programmes since it contributes to the abuse of funds.
Conclusion
The phenomenon of democratic backsliding in Hungary and the ensuing debate in the EU is but a single case study to understand the more extensive process of democratic fragility of immature democracies in Eastern Europe. The turn towards illiberal democracy could be attributed to two key factors: lack of a robust process of strong institution building and a natural process of democratization of society and polity. Thus, it makes eminent sense to heed Samuel P Huntington's advice and carefully recognize, analyze and arrest the trends of reverse waves of democracy.
Pratik Mall is a Postgraduate student of Politics with a Specialization in International Studies at the School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi