By Srijan Sharma
“You Do One More Mumbai And You Will Loose Balochistan”- The National Security Advisor of India, Ajit Doval’s dramatic explanation in describing the roadmap of India’s shift in India’s National security strategy back in early 2014 has now become a reality. The Doval doctrine has given a significant push to India’s national security makeover and departures from old silent watch and play strategies. This doctrine not only has become a tool of powerful deterrence but also helped India showcasing its iron will in international arena which was earlier wrinkled by anxieties and doubts.
A Silent Watch and Play Game: An Asymmetrical Approach and Strategic Restraint
Earlier, India’s approach towards National Security Strategy was defensive. India adopted strategic restraint and moved forward for the fulfillment of strategic/tactical national security which proved to be non-effective towards defeating cross-border terrorism and handling Pakistan’s misadventures. A classic example of a defensive approach can be decoded from the response to the 26/11 attacks. The response was defensive- seeking diplomatic solutions instead of initiating a counterattack and taking retaliatory measures against Pakistan. The reason for adoption of such strategy can be attributed to doubtfulness and unwillingness of exercising of force with a failed attempt to understand security and strategic environment of neighborhood and world politics. The defensive strategy also showed a passive attitude in India’s national security strategy which was later projected as a weakness of India’s softness. In the real sense, India was on an approach that was diametrically opposite or asymmetrical from Pakistan’s Doctrine in short, India was on the defensive whereas Pakistan was already taken an offensive approach towards India through capitalizing its unconventional warfare spectrum, the asymmetry had zeroed the effectiveness of India’s national security strategy towards Pakistan. This undue strategic restraint has committed a grave error in India’s national security calculations which was later leveraged by our hostile neighbors.
Understanding the Doctrine: Defensive Offensive and Offensive Defensive
At one hand back to back terror strikes before 26/11 and post that, targeting India’s key cities- Pune, Hyderabad, Varanasi, Delhi and Bangalore and on the other hand, continued failure of India’s diplomatic efforts under the garb of exercising strategic restraint strategy has called for serious attention to India’s national security strategy. There was urgent need to add realist dimension to India’s national security strategy because in detail, if we see India was failing at both the ends of securing security- neither able to prevent attacks nor able to able deploy effective retaliatory response mechanism involving detection and prevention and mitigation. Therefore India needed an urgent course correction in its national security trajectory. The course correction came in 2014 when Ajit Doval became National Security Advisor of India. Doval’s arrival introduced strategic doctrine which goes by his name: Doval Doctrine or double squeeze strategy which addressed the errors in India’s national security calculus and inserted a realist factor by bringing the hawkish outlook in India’s National Security strategy. This doctrine primarily has two dimensions- Offensive Defensive and Defensive Offensive.
Offensive Defensive- Offensive defense is pre-emptive way of carrying out offensive with defensive purpose. Here, the defensive purpose is to carry out offensive to force the larger foe on the back-foot at the outset by seizing the initiative is logic behind this dimension. India’s commitment towards carrying out pre-emptive strikes involving surgical strikes, Air strikes against terror safe havens in Pakistan occupied Kashmir indicates towards offensive defensive posture.
Defensive Offensive- Defensive Offensive posture is more focused towards countering the adversary in exploiting its internal conflicts and sharp efforts at international level including sanctions and international isolation. Defensive offensive also means carrying out deterrence through offensive means (offensive deterrence) India’s Air Strikes in Balakot In February 2019 and Uri Strikes In 2016.
The Nuclear Factor
The Nuclear factor becomes a key constraint for the both the countries to go on a full offensive. During Kargil War In 1999 the nuclear factor did play a role. The New Delhi centric Pakistan nuclear policy with first strike capability is something to watchout during an event of tight conflict between both the countries. However, the Doval doctrine keeps the check on the Nuclear threshold and affirms in delivering the solid response to Pakistan in striking the terror networks. In any case punishing and denying Pakistan room for their nasty terror designs is one of the prime focus of India’s national security strategy in keeping India safe from state sponsored terrorism.
A Strategic Doctrine of Deterrence and Comprehensive Response
The Doval’s doctrine includes the right amount of deterrence- through denial and punishment and a comprehensive response including detection, prevention and mitigation. With this doctrine in force Pakistan was taken a back from carrying out terror strikes to attaining strategic depth through viz-a viz Afghanistan and West Asia. The Doval doctrine kept a check on every front of the adversary and transformed our national security craft. The Doval doctrine has also contributed substantially in India’s image makeover in security domain internationally. India is now being showcased as major and competitive firepower among key global players. As far as questions of China and emerging threats are considered, this strategic doctrine can reckon with the China factor but the doctrine is required to be backed up with more strong and modern security and military apparatus for countering Chinese hegemonic rise and future threats. There can be no denying that Doval doctrine made India assertive in security and strategic domain and due to which India is able to sail and realize its aspirations of strategic rise in the global power.
Srijan Sharma is working as a Research Analyst at India's oldest and prestigious national security and strategic Think Tank United Service Institution Of India (USI). He has served as Defence editor for a journal and authored articles on matters of strategic affairs for national daily like The Telegraph and journals.